With just five weeks remaining until the German federal election, Friedrich Merz's CDU is leading in the polls. But significant shifts in geopolitics—and opinion—can occur in weeks and days: and this election will take place in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s inauguration and amid the stagnation of the Franco-German engine. Now, recognising the importance of German leadership in Europe, Searching for Deutschland explores the foreign policy dimensions of Germany’s electoral campaign.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes editorial director and senior policy fellow Jeremy Cliffe, and ECFR’s Berlin office head and senior policy fellow Jana Puglierin, to discuss their new podcast, and Merz’s foreign and domestic policies. What exactly is the “Merz Doctrine”? How might Merz deal with the second Trump administration? And what are his views on Russia and Ukraine?

The podcast was recorded on January 16th 2025

Bookshelf:

The Divider Trump in the White House, 2017-2021by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser

Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections by Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, Mark Leonard 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On 1 January, Poland assumed presidency of the EU Council. But it steps into the spotlight during a period of seismic geopolitical shifts. With the war in Ukraine raging and Donald Trump’s imminent return to power, Poland faces immense pressure to lead while navigating Europe’s complex security landscape.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Joanna Bekker, deputy managing director at leading Polish think-tank Polityka Insight, Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, and Marta Prochwicz Jazowska, deputy head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, to discuss Poland’s presidency of the EU Council. What does its motto of “security” mean for Europe in practice? Will the upcoming Polish presidential election impact its direction? And, with France and Germany missing in action, can Poland seize the moment to assume greater leadership in Europe?

Bookshelf:

Smart Brevity: The Power of Saying More with Less by Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, and Roy Schwartz

Kaput: The End of the German Miracle by Wolfgang Münchau

Sophie’s World by Jostein Gaarder

This podcast was recorded on 8 January 2025

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

2024 was a year of intense geopolitical shifts and growing uncertainty. But one thing remains consistent: ECFR’s ever-popular predictions podcast. In our first outing for 2025, Mark Leonard and ECFR research director Jeremy Shapiro team up to reflect on the accuracy of last year’s predictions—and, with crystal balls in hand, try to decipher which forces will shape 2025. Is this the year they finally achieve 10/10?

Let us know if you think they missed something! Write your own predictions in to Mark via [email protected].

Bookshelf:

A Nasty Little War: The West's Fight to Reverse the Russian Revolution by Anna Reid

Regime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future by Patrick J. Deneen

2024: The year we embrace predictable surprise by Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro  

This podcast was recorded on 27 December 2024

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As Donald Trump’s return to the presidency looms, European leaders are intensifying their diplomatic efforts. Emmanuel Macron has met with Donald Tusk to discuss European troop deployments, while a high-stakes meeting in Brussels with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO secretary general Mark Rutte and EU leaders included discussions on potential peacekeeping missions. Europe seems determined to secure Ukraine’s future, offer it meaningful security guarantees, and maintain regional stability.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at ECFR and former assistant secretary general for defence investment at NATO, Jana Kobsova, visiting fellow at ECFR and foreign policy advisor to Slovak president Zuzana Caputová, and Nicu Popescu, former Moldova foreign minister and distinguished policy fellow at ECFR, to discuss the ongoing negotiations. Which different scenarios are being discussed? What stage are these discussions at? Can Europeans help to shore up Ukraine at this critical stage—and, crucially, can the EU provide it with long-term security guarantees?

Bookshelf:

The Anatomy of a Moment: Thirty-Five Minutes in History and Imagination by Javier Cercas

Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War by Ian Ona Johnson

Talks with T. G. Masaryk by Karel Čapek

How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read by Pierre Bayard

This podcast was recorded on 18 December 2024

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the world becomes increasingly disordered and fragmented, Europe faces mounting geoeconomic challenges on multiple fronts: Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s ambitions in Taiwan, and the uncertain future of transatlantic relations under Donald Trump. To remain relevant, European policymakers must step up and approach supply chains, trade rules, investment flows, and energy policy as indispensable elements of statecraft.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Agathe Demarais, ECFR’s geoeconomics lead, and Abraham Newman, professor at the School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University, and co-author of Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy, to discuss how Europe can overcome its internal dysfunction when it comes to geoeconomics. How can Europe remain relevant in geoeconomics? What are the main obstacles to it doing so? And what risks does Europe face by sticking to business as usual?

Bookshelf:

The Nightingale Gallery by Paul Doherty

Europe Must Unlock Its Geoeconomic Power by Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman

The Other '68ers: Student Protest and Christian Democracy in West Germany by Anna Von Der Goltz

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Given the turbulence across Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran, conversations at this year’s Doha Forum highlighted a Middle East region, and a world order, in flux. Now the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and the upcoming Donald Trump administration will shape American relations in the Middle East – and changing regional priorities and dynamics will likely impact the future international order.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s MENA programme, and Vali Nasr, Majid Khadduri professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, to discuss the Middle East and changing global dynamics. How might the fall of the Assad regime reshape the region’s political and security landscape? What does the development mean for Syria? And how are regional powers adapting to the uncertainty of the second Trump administration?

This podcast was recorded on 7 December 2024 

Bookshelf:

Revenge of the Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell

In Praise of Hatred by Khaled Khalifa

Why War ? By Richard Overy

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Its almost three years after Russia invaded Ukraine and, despite small Russian gains in the east, the war looks no closer to reaching a military conclusion. But with Donald Trump’s re-election, change is in the air. Talk of a ceasefire, once taboo, is now common in Washington and even in eastern European capitals – not to mention among government officials in major cities such as Berlin, Paris, and London.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, head of ECFR’s Washington office, to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine, international efforts for peace, and potential end-game scenarios. Which tools could a Trump administration use to bring both sides to the negotiating table? Who is Keith Kellogg, Trump’s pick as Ukraine envoy? How might Europeans help Ukraine defend itself if the US is out of the picture? And how will the different sides use the period until Trump’s inauguration to advance their positions?

This podcast was recorded on 4 December 2024

Bookshelf:

L'Ukraine, la République et les oligarques by Sébastien Gobert

Notre homme à Washington by Régis Genté

The Embrace of Unreason: France, 1914-1920 by Frederick Brown

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After weeks of negotiations, US president Joe Biden announced that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, it remains unclear whether the development will really help end the Middle East conflict which started 14 months ago and became even deadlier following Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza in October.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of ECFR’s MENA programme and interim director of the Africa programme, to discuss the recent agreement. Why did Israel and Hezbollah agree to the ceasefire now? What are the terms? What makes this ceasefire different in terms of enforcement? What does a potential end to the conflict mean for Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon? And what are the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza?

Bookshelf:

The Wager by David Grann

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On Monday, the world’s 20 largest economies descended on Rio de Janeiro for the annual G20 summit. But Brazil’s wider role in the shifting world order is frequently misperceived in Western discourse. Many tend to categorise it either as a close partner of Russia and China, or as a staunch supporter of the international order established by the West. In fact, however, it aligns with neither.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes José Ignacio Torreblanca, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Madrid office, and Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow, to discuss Brazil’s role in a changing world order. What are the main takeaways from this year’s G20, and how does Brazil view its role in such summits? How is Brazil positioning itself in the world? What types of relationships does Brasilia seek with global south countries, and how does Europe fit into this? And what do Brazilians think about Donald Trump?

Bookshelf:

Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America by Michael Reid

The Tech Coup: How to Save Democracy from Silicon Valley by Marietje Schaake

La France, tu l aimes mais tu la quittes: Enquête sur la diaspora française musulmane by de Collectif, Olivier Esteves, Alice Picard 

Jak biały człowiek by Oliwia Bosomtwe

Brazil: Europe’s bridge to the global south by Carla Hobbs, José Ignacio Torreblanca, Pawel Zerka

This podcast was recorded on 21 November 2024

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trump's first stint as president – with his “America First” stance and isolationist foreign policy – disrupted relations between the US and Europe, especially over NATO, trade, and the climate. Now the world is faced with further challenges, such as the war in Ukraine: and Trump’s return could prompt European countries to seek greater military and economic independence from the US while collaborating to become a more unified front.

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Célia Belin, head of ECFR’s Paris office; Piotr Buras, head of ECFR’s Warsaw office; Anna Kuchenbecker, ECFR’s senior director of strategic partnerships; Maria Simeonova, head of ECFR’s Sofia office; and Arturo Varvelli, head of ECFR’s Rome office, to provide a view from the ECFR capitals. How have they reacted to the election result? How should their country governments prepare for Trump? Which challenges does Trump's return to the White House pose for Ukraine in the wider context of European security? How might Trump’s return affect the economy, escalate trade tensions, and reshape relations with China? And, crucially, what does his reelection mean for Europe?

The podcast was recorded on 13 November 13 2024

Bookshelf:

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Jeremy Shapiro, and Majda Ruge

Trump’s return is terrible news for Ukraine. Europe should step into the breach – but will it? by Timothy Garton Ash

Art of the deal: Four ways Europeans can find new trade partners in the Trump era by Alberto Rizzi

Living in Trump’s world by Mark Leonard

Dangerous manoeuvers: How Israel and Iran are preparing for Trump 2.0 by Julien Barnes-Dacey, Ellie Geranmayeh, and Hugh Lovatt

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.