Welcome to this month’s episode of the Market Advantage podcast by Optimal Blue. Hosts Olivia DeLancey, Brennan O'Connell, and Mike Vough open the show with a discussion on July 2025 mortgage data, highlighting trends in rate lock volumes, refinance activity, and non-agency lending. Later in the episode, Olivia and Mike sit down with Julian Hebron, founder of The Basis Point, to explore rate outlooks, lending trends, and the evolving role of technology in the mortgage industry.
Julian shares The Basis Point’s view that mortgage rates could fall faster than current forecasts suggest, driven by political pressure and potential leadership changes at the Fed. He also discusses the rise of non-QM, HELOCs, and bridge loans as permanent credit tools, and introduces a bold take on the one-stop-shop ownership model – where real estate brokerage becomes a customer acquisition strategy rather than a profit center.
Key Takeaways:
- July saw a 3% decline in rate lock volumes and a 5% drop in purchase activity, offset by increases in cash-out and rate-term refinances.
- Non-agency and non-QM lending continue to grow, driven by investor demand and gig economy borrowers.
- The CME Mortgage Rate future is gaining traction as a hedging tool for MSR and non-agency loan risk.
- The Basis Point forecasts lower mortgage rates by late 2025, citing political pressure and potential Fed leadership changes.
- HELOCs and bridge loans are gaining popularity due to record tappable equity and evolving borrower needs.
Links and Resources:
- Follow Julian Hebron on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/julianhebron/
- Learn more about The Basis Point: https://thebasispoint.com/
- Subscribe to the Market Advantage data report: https://www2.optimalblue.com/market-advantage/
- Follow Optimal Blue on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/optimal-blue/
- Subscribe to Optimal Blue’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Optimal-Blue
- Follow Mike Vough on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-vough-60467826/
- Follow Brennan O'Connell on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brennan-oconnell/
- Follow Olivia DeLancey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/olivia-delancey/
Commentary included in the podcast shall not be construed as, nor is Optimal Blue providing, any legal, trading, hedging, or financial advice.
Mentioned in this episode:
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