Market Beat

In today’s episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal digs into a third-quarter IPO market where AI did the heavy lifting. Twenty-seven operating companies went public in the quarter, down from 48 in the second, raising nearly $35 billion, well ahead of the $15 billion raised in the same quarter last year. Year to date, 108 companies have raised $155 billion, compared with 161 companies raising just $31 billion a year ago, and the difference is AI. SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion and opened on the Nasdaq above a $1 trillion market cap, following SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO. First-day performance was softer than usual, with an average at-the-open return of 7% versus a long-term average of 17%, and biotech names took most of the top spots. Argus expects both Anthropic and OpenAI to go public with valuations exceeding $1 trillion. Bank earnings season kicks off October 13th with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, where Argus expects more muted investment banking results after a record second quarter, though lending businesses should benefit from improving net interest margins. Quick Takes cover raised targets on ServiceNow as it capitalizes on agentic AI for business process transformation, International Flavors and Fragrances on its restructuring plans, and Albemarle, where lithium prices are up 67% year over year and supply and demand trends look poised to improve into 2027.

Give us five minutes, and we’ll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal digs into a third-quarter IPO market where AI did the heavy lifting. Twenty-seven operating companies went public in the quarter, down from 48 in the second, raising nearly $35 billion, well ahead of the $15 billion raised in the same quarter last year. Year to date, 108 companies have raised $155 billion, compared with 161 companies raising just $31 billion a year ago, and the difference is AI. SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion and opened on the Nasdaq above a $1 trillion market cap, following SpaceX's $75 billion IPO. First-day performance was softer than usual, with an average at-the-open return of 7% versus a long-term average of 17%, and biotech names took most of the top spots. Argus expects both Anthropic and OpenAI to go public with valuations exceeding $1 trillion. Bank earnings season kicks off October 13th with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, where Argus expects more muted investment banking results after a record second quarter, though lending businesses should benefit from improving net interest margins. Quick Takes cover raised targets on ServiceNow as it capitalizes on agentic AI for business process transformation, International Flavors and Fragrances on its restructuring plans, and Albemarle, where lithium prices are up 67% year over year and supply and demand trends look poised to improve into 2027.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks at the financial conditions underpinning saving, borrowing, and investing. Chief Economist Chris Graja's call of the week is for conditions to stay supportive, with the OFR Financial Stress Index holding below zero. The index, built by the Treasury's Office of Financial Research from 33 market variables including interest rate spreads, equity valuation, and volatility, reads positive when stress runs above average and negative when it runs below, making it a useful early warning signal as rates climb and credit spreads widen. In Active Stocks, Constellation Energy jumps 12% on a new nuclear supply contract with Alphabet, Corteva rises 10% on an upgrade, and cybersecurity names Zscaler and CrowdStrike both gain 4%. The 10-year Treasury yield eases to 5.29% and crude falls 2% to $88. Quick Takes cover a raised target on Microsoft following its Copilot revamp, value seen in DuPont after its electronics spinoff, and a reiterated Hold on General Mills amid continued weak volume. The Deeper Dive covers Argus's asset allocation outlook, with stocks leading bonds as long-term rates hit five-year highs, a bullish tactical view supported by steady GDP growth and double-digit profit growth, and why value has taken the performance lead in 2026 after five years of lagging.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks at how global stocks are outshining U.S. markets even with the S&P 500 near record highs. The leading emerging market ETF has gained 22% year to date versus 13% for the S&P 500 and 8% for the developed international index, making overseas stocks, particularly dividend payers, an option for investors looking to diversify and reduce sensitivity to volatile U.S. interest rates. Argus walks through its Buy-rated international names in the International Growth and Income Model Portfolio, spanning Anheuser-Busch InBev, Haleon, and Unilever in consumer staples, Enbridge and Shell in energy, GSK and Sanofi in healthcare, NXP, SAP, and Celestica in technology, Canadian National Railway in industrials, and Sun Life Financial in financials. On the Fed, odds have flipped dramatically after weaker-than-expected jobs data, with algorithms now forecasting a 78% chance of no move at next week's meeting, though Argus still sees one hike before year end before the central bank moves to the sidelines in 2027. In Active Stocks, SpaceX rises 5% on another analyst endorsement, while Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia lift the Nasdaq. Quick Takes cover Micron, up 275% year to date with AI driving the run, a raised target on Accenture as enterprises seek AI strategy help, and a raised target on Southwest Gas on population growth near Las Vegas and Phoenix.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal marks 17 weeks of the podcast and looks ahead to what history says about fourth-quarter performance. Analyzing S&P 500 data from 1980 to 2025, Argus finds the fourth quarter has generated average gains of 4.7%, well ahead of the 2.0%, 3.3%, and 0.5% averages for the first three quarters, with a win rate of 83%, meaning positive returns in four out of five years. The S&P 500 has also hit its yearly high-water mark during the fourth quarter more than 70% of the time, with over half of those highs coming in December. Argus expects a positive 2026 even with a possible slow start given inflation, midterms, and trade tensions. On inflation, new evidence points the other way from yesterday's PCE report, as the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index jumped to 77.9% in September from 71.1% in August, suggesting pricing pressures further up the production chain may soon reach consumers. In Active Stocks, Accenture surges 18% on a strong quarter that eased AI demand concerns, Micron slips despite beating estimates and offering optimistic guidance, and Nike rises ahead of its afternoon report. Quick Takes cover an upgrade of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals to Buy on strong growth from Dupixent, Libtayo, and Praluent, and a maintained Buy on Carnival as cruise demand stays robust and debt levels decline.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers a market rally driven by a cooler-than-expected inflation reading. The PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge, rose at a 3.4% annual pace in August, down from 3.7% the prior month and below the 3.7% consensus, marking the slowest annualized reading in six months. Core PCE came in even lower at 3.0%, with energy costs the main driver of the increase as gasoline jumped 4.4%. The softer print could alter the Fed's thinking on future rate hikes, and Argus notes that lower inflation leading to lower rates would support higher stock valuations and a continuation of the bull market. On the jobs front, ADP reported 90,000 private jobs created in September, well above the 68,000 consensus and sharply improved from last month's 38,000, with gains widespread across business sizes and led by education and health services. In Active Stocks, Boeing rises on a $20 billion U.S. Navy contract for a next-generation jet fighter, Robinhood slips despite announcing agentic trading tools and extended weekend hours, and Conagra falls on weak organic sales. Quick Takes cover MDU Resources, where a new electric contract for a North Dakota AI factory and two approved rate increases support a strong commercial and industrial base, and AutoZone, where new stores and MegaHubs point to an earnings turnaround with shares down 17% year to date.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal previews Wednesday's PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and explains why it's favored over the better-known CPI: its composition changes more frequently, making it quicker to reflect real-time pricing shifts. Through July, PCE inflation ran at 3.7% year over year with core at 3.3%, and Argus forecasts August readings of 3.8% headline and 3.4% core. Across the 20 inflation measures Argus tracks monthly, prices are rising at an average 4.4% rate, up 40 basis points from the prior month, while the firm's blended core reading holds steady at 2.8%. With inflation still well above the Fed's 2% target, Argus expects one more rate hike in 2026. The economic call of the week looks for Thursday's ISM Manufacturing Prices Index to stay elevated at 71% in September. In Active Stocks, Carnival jumps 12% on a third-quarter beat and raised guidance, Nvidia extends gains on its $150 billion buyback, and Netflix rises 3% on a Deutsche Bank upgrade. Nick Eade delivers Quick Takes with a downgrade of Warner Bros. Discovery to Sell as the Paramount Skydance merger nears completion and the price gap closes, and a raised target on Cintas following a fiscal first-quarter beat and raised guidance.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal previews Friday's September Jobs report, where Argus forecasts the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.0% from 4.1%, against a consensus for no change. The optimism rests on strong third-quarter growth, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projecting 5% for the quarter, up from 1.5% in the second, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers tracking up an annualized 4.8%. Argus also sees room for unemployment to stay at or below 4.1% without stoking inflation, with unit labor costs approximating 1.1%, well under the Fed's 2% target. It's a busy week for data, with PCE mid-week and jobs on Friday, both feeding into the Fed's next rate decision. In Active Stocks, Nvidia rises 3% on a $150 billion buyback, the largest in history, Kodiak Sciences soars 145% as its macular degeneration drugs advance, and Nike edges higher ahead of Thursday's earnings. Nick Eade delivers Quick Takes with a new Buy coverage launch on 10x Genomics, where robust orders for the Atera platform support AI-driven drug discovery, a downgrade of Restaurant Brands to Hold on commodity costs and weak sales at Popeyes and Tim Hortons, and continued upside seen in Costco after 14% operating income growth and 15% EPS growth in the fourth quarter.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal looks ahead to November's midterm elections and what history says about market performance around them. With Republicans currently controlling the Presidency, Senate, and House, prediction markets give Democrats an 89% chance of taking the House while the GOP narrowly holds the Senate, as presidential approval sits at 32%. Historically, stocks stumble in early autumn of midterm years, with third-quarter S&P 500 returns averaging negative 1.5% since 1980, but investors often respond positively once results are in, with fourth-quarter returns averaging 4.1% as Washington gridlock lowers the odds of major legislation. The Market Buzz covers widening bond spreads, as Treasury yields back up on oil-driven inflation fears and corporate yields rise faster on recession concerns, though spreads remain below historical averages. Markets trade lower at midday following yesterday's yield surge, with the 10-year at 5.12% and crude up 2% to $94. In Active Stocks, Oracle drops 6% on legal issues tied to data center construction, Meta rises 3% after its conference, and Darden falls on a revenue miss. Nick Eade delivers Quick Takes with a downgrade of Yum! Brands to Hold on gas and commodity price pressures, and a buying idea in International Paper, where restructuring, the DS Smith acquisition, and a planned spinoff support a $45 target.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.

In today's episode of Market Beat by Argus Research, host Caroline Wygal covers Argus's updated sector allocations for the fourth quarter, with one upgrade: Energy moves to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below pre-war levels, and the conflict has exposed how vulnerable regional energy infrastructure is in the age of drone warfare, leading Argus to see a possible secular shift of global crude production toward more secure North American sources. Current Over-Weight sectors are Energy, Financial, Industrial, Information Technology, and Materials, with Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples Under-Weight. The Wall Street Buzz digs into the AI trade, recently shaken by concerns that the technology is developing too fast, and explains why Argus sees the selloff as haste and confusion, with investors conflating frontier AI research with the everyday agentic applications being deployed worldwide. Markets come under pressure at midday as stronger-than-expected manufacturing and services data push the 10-year Treasury yield up 10 basis points to 5.07%. In Active Stocks, Cracker Barrel rises 4% on an earnings beat and improved traffic, KB Home slips on lowered margin guidance, and Six Flags declines as activist investor Jana Partners pushes for a sale. Nick Eade delivers Quick Takes with a raised target on Essential Utilities following its transformative combination with American Water Works, a favorable view on Suburban Propane and its 7.8% dividend yield, and healthy guidance from Consolidated Edison with a five-year EPS growth target of 6% to 7% through 2030.

Give us five minutes, and we'll give you the markets. For full research and information about Argus subscriptions, visit argusresearch.com.