Market Chat

Ep. 98 Market Update March 9, 2020 by Brouwer & Janachowski

Ep: 97; A good Start to the year. Can it last? by Brouwer & Janachowski

Market Chat, December 17, 2019

Topic: Outlook 2020

Image: Sadness of the King; Henri Matisse

Market Chat, November 21, 2019

Topic: Will consumers derail the economy?

Image: Rites of Lililth, 1945 by Mark Rothko

The Days Ahead: Short week and jobs numbers. Market took on a lot. Again. The U.K. suspended Parliament pending the last round of Brexit negotiations. And if that sounds extreme and constitutionally questionable, it is. There was another attack on Fed independence. We think the Fed will weather it all but it's unsettling. Treasuries rallied again but this is very much part of a global trend. Stocks are up on the week but we’re writing this on Wednesday so time for more action.

Meanwhile, before heading out of the office for a break, this is a summary of all the stuff that’s gone on...

Read this week's full market report:

https://www.bandjadvisors.com/blog/touching-zero

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The Days Ahead: Fed minutes and lead up to Central Bankers’ Jackson Hole meeting.

Read this week's full market report: https://www.bandjadvisors.com/blog/dusty-recesses

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Markets had two things on their mind. One, the G-20 meeting and, two, quarter end rebalancing. What? Yes, rebalancing is a big deal given how many funds (think of all those target dates funds, pension accounts, risk-parity funds) have to maintain their Equity/Fixed Income allocations. After a barn-storming start to the year, with Treasuries up 7%, equities up 14% and similar recoveries in international and emerging markets, many portfolios will have rebalanced in the last week or so.

Outside the technical side, markets are running on low rates, the expectation of lower rates and the hope of a trade deal. Fair enough, but those have been the headlines for months now. We need a new narrative to keep things moving. While 2019 has been good (see below for our mid-year scorecard), we've only advanced some 4% since January 2018 with two corrections of 10% and one of 20%.

Now sit back and enjoy the G-20 meeting.

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Learn more about Brouwer & Janachowski's wealth management services: www.bandjadvisors.com

This is a recording of our June 2019 conference call. Learn more about Brouwer & Janachowski's wealth management services: www.bandjadvisors.com

Short week. Second estimate at Q1 GDP.

Stocks opened lower seven out of the last 10 trading days. That means stocks sold off overnight in Asia and Europe but then picked up in the U.S. trading day. That shows high-risk avoidance. No one wants to be long overnight and find there’s no volume. Who can blame them? Stocks were down for the week amid trade tensions, weak manufacturing orders and lower oil prices (down 13% this year).

The deflation forces are showing up in a strong dollar and another rally in 10-Year Treasuries. The yield hit an inter-day low of 2.39% (it was as high as 3.2% in October). A 10-Year note trading at $96 back then is now at $104 and that excludes coupon payments. If the slow down continues, trade talks deteriorate and inflation keeps slipping, we would not be surprised to see the 10-Year trade with a 1 handle.

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Learn more about Brouwer & Janachowski's wealth management services: www.bandjadvisors.com