In this episode:

• The Nasdaq continues to hit new all-time highs, with AI firmly established as the driving force behind the rally. Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft are leading the tech sector, while alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin have also gained around 30% year-to-date. Meanwhile, stablecoins are officially entering the traditional financial system with backing from the Trump administration.
• Markets are entering a critical week, with major tech earnings, central bank updates, and the August 1st deadline for trade tariff agreements all on the agenda. Trump is pushing forward on AI with executive orders aimed at unlocking investments, while the Fed is expected to hold rates steady but may revise inflation forecasts upward. Political pressure on Powell is mounting, adding to the market’s underlying tensions.
• In Europe, earnings are less impressive, partly due to a strong euro weighing on exporters. Heavily held stocks are underperforming, while the most shorted names are delivering positive surprises. The ECB has paused rate cuts, though markets still expect two more by year-end. Meanwhile, in the UK, household saving rates have returned to 2008 levels — a clear sign of growing economic concern.

Beneath the surface of a stable market lies a phase of strategic transition. Sector rotations, renewed geopolitical risk, and the rising centrality of AI are reshaping the landscape. August may not just be a seasonal lull — it could mark the beginning of a new, more diversified and selective market equilibrium.

In this episode:

• Sector rotations are marking a new phase in the markets, with investors rebalancing portfolios in anticipation of possible rate cuts and fiscal benefits. After a semester dominated by momentum, the focus is now shifting towards greater diversification and broader participation.
• Trade tensions continue to weigh on the global outlook, with the U.S. tightening tariffs on Europe, Canada, Brazil, and even commodities. Uncertainty about the timing and real impact of trade deals is creating instability, particularly in the industrial sector.
• European fiscal stimulus, led by Germany, is fueling expectations of a recovery. Despite downward earnings revisions, large-scale public and private investment plans provide a solid foundation for the future—especially for companies able to inspire confidence in the coming quarters.

In conclusion, the market remains caught between positive signals and underlying risks. The strength of the indices should not overshadow the complexity of the current landscape, shaped by structural shifts and evolving economic policies. For investors, this is a crucial moment to reassess their approach, with a sharper focus on the medium term and the quality of portfolio choices.

In this episode:

• Equity markets have surprised with their resilience, with the S&P 500 up nearly 30% from the April lows, driven by U.S. dominance in the Tech and AI sectors, which have offset narrow market breadth and elevated multiples. In contrast, oil and the dollar have delivered negative performances, with the latter down 11%—its worst half-year in 40 years.
• Macroeconomic dynamics are beginning to show mixed signals, with downward revisions to U.S. GDP, worsening consumer confidence, rising jobless claims, and a contracting housing market. Nevertheless, the Atlanta Fed still estimates +3.4% growth for Q2, and markets are pricing in up to three rate cuts by year-end.
• The geopolitical and fiscal landscape remains in focus, with the stabilizing effect of the unofficial ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, renewed defense spending commitments at the NATO summit, and Trump’s push for the “Big Beautiful Bill.” Meanwhile in Europe, Germany has launched an investment plan that will push its deficit toward 4%, while France faces political instability, impacting spreads and equity markets.

We’ve entered the second half of 2025 with seemingly strong markets, yet underpinned by a fragile narrative. So far, resilience has been remarkable, but it's built on high expectations of fiscal stimulus and rate cuts, while macro signals are starting to soften. The balance is precarious. Investor positioning is more aggressive than at the April bottom, yet still far from euphoric levels. The trajectory of the coming months will depend on the strength of the real economy and central bank actions: any data point on inflation, employment, or consumption could become a volatility trigger. In this environment, risk management returns to the forefront, as the current narrative—driven by tech, stimulus, and contained geopolitics—may not hold if the macro picture deteriorates.

In this episode:

• The equity market rally, driven by forced repositioning and buyback programs, clashes with technical and fundamental indicators that signal the exhaustion of the risk-on phase. These include a negative risk premium on the S&P 500, rising bond yields, and the gradual disengagement of U.S. investors—also penalized by exchange rate effects.
• Geopolitical tensions, reignited by Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, heighten the risk of escalation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations remain strained despite timid signs of dialogue, with sharply increasing tariffs having clear repercussions on trade, inflation, and internal U.S. stability.
• The momentum in technology sectors linked to Artificial Intelligence supports certain segments of the U.S. market, but the structural fragility of the current equilibrium—along with the less tech-oriented composition of European indices—limits the rally’s scope and accentuates regional divergences.

In this scenario, dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, internal pressures, and complex economic transitions, the market shows increasing vulnerability beneath an appearance of stability. In times like these, adopting a prudent approach becomes essential—carefully diversifying and focusing on quality and medium- to long-term resilience in order to navigate volatility and paradigm shifts.

In this episode:

• The S&P 500 ended the month up more than 6%, marking its best May performance in over three decades. Since the April 8 lows, the index has risen 19%, largely driven by the “Magnificent Seven” and a record level of retail investor activity, which accounted for 36% of daily trading volumes.
• Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” narrowly passed in the House by a single vote, includes significant tax cuts funded by tariffs—though the expected revenue from those tariffs is increasingly uncertain. The bill risks triggering a surge in public debt and has already caused political turmoil, including the resignation of Elon Musk. Meanwhile, Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum, aiming to counter the image of a yielding leader captured in the acronym “TACO” (“Trump Always Chickens Out”).
• The escalation in U.S.-China tensions—with potential tech sector restrictions and measures targeting Chinese students—adds to an increasingly fragile fiscal backdrop. Treasury yields are at their highest since 2007, the housing market is slowing, and CEO confidence has dropped to historic lows. Inflation remains under scrutiny amid a global environment of rising interest rates and growing systemic risks.

The recent rally has been fueled by forced repositioning and overly optimistic expectations, but it stands on shaky ground. In a climate of rising uncertainty around tariffs, debt, and geopolitics, this may be the time to reduce risk exposure, improve portfolio quality, and take advantage of low volatility to add protection.

In this episode:

• Equity markets have posted an impressive rebound, driven by the temporary easing of U.S.-China tariffs, strategic agreements signed by Trump in the Middle East, and strong technical positioning, with buying flows from systematic funds and retail investors.
• The market is pricing in a highly optimistic scenario, with volatility at its lowest levels and compressed credit spreads. However, signs of weakness persist, such as still-elevated tariffs, slowing signals from hard data, and Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. from its AAA credit rating.
• High valuations and renewed bond appeal: With 30-year Treasury yields back at 5%, the comparison with the S&P 500 — trading at 22 times forward earnings — suggests a potential rotation into bonds, especially as the room for further equity gains appears to be narrowing.

Despite the apparent strength of the market recovery, the current euphoria seems driven more by political narrative than by sustainable fundamentals. With volatility at historic lows and positioning already elevated, adopting a more cautious and contrarian approach may prove wise while awaiting concrete confirmation of the agreements and the actual resilience of the economy.

In this episode:

• April marked by record volatility: The Nasdaq 100 rebounded from a 15% drawdown in just a few weeks, while bonds, currencies, and commodities experienced exceptional swings. Trading desks benefited from this environment, whereas traditional asset managers struggled.
• Macro signals remain mixed: Although some indicators normalized after "Liberation Day," the overall picture remains fragile. U.S. imports from China have collapsed, perceived inflation is on the rise, and corporate earnings are being revised downward. Mega-cap tech stocks are holding up, but recession risks remain elevated.
• Still defensive positioning, but beware of upside risk: Systematic funds and hedge funds remain cautious, but favorable seasonality, buyback activity, and renewed interest in AI could drive a surprise upside. Meanwhile, China continues to lose momentum, while Europe shows tentative signs of improvement thanks to German fiscal stimulus and a more dovish ECB. 

Although the most acute phase of instability appears to be behind us, the lack of structural trade agreements and ongoing macro uncertainty call for caution: this is a time for selective investing, avoiding overcrowded trades and focusing on visibility and resilience.

In this episode:

• Financial markets are searching for a new balance after one of the most volatile periods in recent decades. U.S. indices have dropped over 20% from their yearly highs before a partial rebound, while the Dollar Index has hit a three-year low and gold has surged nearly 30% year-to-date, confirming its role as a safe haven asset.
• Tariff tensions are fueling global uncertainty: the U.S. strategy, seen as controversial and disorganized, has triggered instability and strong reactions from China, Canada, and other trade partners. The risk is a steered global economic slowdown, with potential recessionary effects and a loss of credibility for the United States.
• The risk of a global recession is rising, now estimated around 60%, with early signs evident in surveys and declining imports. Central banks are responding in diverging ways: the ECB is cutting rates, while the Fed remains cautious amid political pressures and a lack of clear data. 

In this environment dominated by geopolitical instability, high volatility, and mixed economic signals, selectivity and caution remain the most sensible strategies—while awaiting more concrete data and market stabilization.

In this episode:  

• The first quarter of the year closes with strong market turbulence, influenced by geopolitical events and new U.S. tariff policies. After a brief normalization, U.S. indices have resumed their decline. Europe is also down.
• The introduction of new tariffs by the Trump administration is already having negative effects on the real economy. The most affected sectors include automotive, food, and pharmaceuticals, with the risk of a trade war. U.S. inflation is expected to reach 3.3% over the next two years, while the trade deficit is rising sharply.
• The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, with consumer and business confidence at their lowest levels in over a decade. The Atlanta Fed's GDP estimate has dropped from +2% to -2.8% in just a few weeks. Meanwhile, social unrest is growing, and Trump's popularity is declining in the polls. In Europe, fundamentals remain stronger, with fiscal stimulus providing support to the markets.

The current scenario is marked by uncertainty and nervousness in the markets, with investors adopting a more cautious stance. While a technical rebound may occur in the short term, in the medium term, it will be crucial to monitor the evolution of macroeconomic data and trade tensions to understand real growth prospects.

In this episode:  

• The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq-100 indices have undergone a significant correction, declining by 10% and 15%, respectively. While such movements are not unusual in market history, the speed of the downturn and the weakness of the Magnificent 7 have caught investors off guard. Rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 40%.
• The global market is showing a clear divergence: while U.S. indices are struggling, the Hang Seng is up 20%, and the DAX has outperformed the Nasdaq by 26%. Capital inflows into Europe have been significant in the early weeks of the year, driven by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the search for better economic prospects outside the United States.
• Three key events could shape markets in the coming months: the escalation of trade tensions with Trump’s tariff expansion, Germany’s tax reform, which could unlock €900 billion in investments, and efforts to redefine geopolitical balances in Ukraine. Additionally, investors are closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its interest rate decisions.

Overall, the global market is experiencing a phase of high volatility and geographical rebalancing. While Europe and China are attracting new investments, uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies and macroeconomic risks call for a cautious and selective approach to seize the best opportunities.