Market Flash - ENG

While headline equity indices hover near record highs powered by AI leaders, beneath the surface the broader market has already priced in rising real rates and fiscal headwinds; meanwhile, the agentic AI wave is set to redefine entire industries and drug discovery.In this episode:

• A bifurcated market and the breadth puzzle: underneath index-level calm lies a widespread correction across individual stocks, yet light positioning and supportive seasonality set the stage for participation to broaden.
• Cost of capital and fiscal discipline: with long-term Treasury yields above 5% and French spreads at 2012 highs, sovereign risks call for active stock picking across countries and resilient balance sheets.
• The agentic shift in AI and pharma disruption: moving from conversational chatbots to autonomous agents and accelerating drug development timelines, AI's economic impact is becoming tangible while driving massive computing needs.

To learn more, listen to the new episode of the Market Flash podcast series by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

Beneath a superficial calm, markets are navigating violent rotations fueled by a fresh energy shock in refined products, central bank tightening, and the evolution of AI toward autonomous agents. In this episode:

• Energy shock and refined products: logistical bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions, and refinery disruptions drive gas and diesel prices higher, reigniting inflationary risks.
• Central banks and higher-for-longer rates: the Fed’s hawkish hike reinforces expectations of an extended tightening cycle, while low volatility provides an appealing window to purchase protection.
• From chatbots to autonomous agents: with the launch of Meta’s Muse, AI transitions into a digital operator; safety concerns will not halt capex, but rather make development even more capital-intensive.

To learn more, listen to the new episode of the Market Flash podcast series by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

Equity markets weather the summer on record earnings, but attention shifts to AI’s return on capital, bond yields, and mounting logistical tensions in the energy sector ahead of winter. In this episode:

• An exceptional yet under-rewarded reporting season: Q2 earnings are growing, yet the market’s reaction remains cautious—why?
• Risk shifts to the bond market: capital becomes a contested resource once again.
• Portfolios and seasonality: low volatility offers an attractive opportunity to add protection ahead of the second half of September.

To find out more, listen to the new episode of the Market Flash podcast series, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:

• Correlations have collapsed and leadership is broadening: the S&P 500 held up despite a sharp semiconductor correction, a sign that the market is starting to distinguish between companies building AI infrastructure and those able to actually monetize it.
• A pivotal earnings season is underway: after 27% earnings growth in Q1, consensus expects 22-24% growth in Q2, but the market's real question is shifting from "how much will you spend" to "when will you see a return on that spending."
• The bond market is back in focus: the 30-year Treasury is comfortably above 5%, with real yields at 2.9% (an 18-year high), while Warsh's likely nomination to the Fed signals a more modern approach, less anchored to traditional forward guidance.
• China is surprising on the AI front: Alibaba and Tencent show encouraging signs of cloud monetization, while the new Kimi 3 model demonstrates performance close to Western models at a fraction of the cost.

The key takeaway is that AI isn't slowing down — it's maturing: from building infrastructure to monetizing it, from concentration to broader leadership, from excitement over investment to a search for returns on capital — a path likely more volatile but ultimately healthier, in a world where capital is once again a scarce, and therefore valuable, resource. To learn more, listen to the new episode of the Market Flash podcast series, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

MARKET FLASH — JULY 7, 2026 Markets are entering a new phase of the AI race: after the infrastructure investment boom, investors are starting to ask who will actually be able to monetize it. Meanwhile, Europe is back in the spotlight, driven by a mix of reforms, geopolitics and cooling inflation. In this episode:

• AI enters its "second phase": after the race to build chips, memory and data centers, the market is now focused on who can turn these investments into real revenue. The Magnificent Seven, jokingly renamed the "Lag Seven," have underperformed, while the high-beta momentum basket dropped about 18% in two sessions — the worst two-day sell-off since Covid.
• Market leadership is broadening: the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 in 10 of the last 12 sessions, an event that has happened only three times in twenty years. The rotation is visible within tech too: away from chipmakers and toward companies with proprietary data, enterprise software, cybersecurity and cloud platforms — Snowflake being the clearest example, alongside Salesforce, ServiceNow and CrowdStrike.
• Financial leverage is amplifying moves: leveraged AI ETFs now manage around $300 billion in assets and, with average leverage of roughly 2.5x, can generate up to $20 billion in buying or selling in the final hour of trading on volatile days — explaining the sharp late-session swings.
• Europe returns to center stage: Germany has launched a sweeping pro-growth reform agenda, oil has fallen about 40% over three months, Eurozone inflation has surprised to the downside, and the composite PMI is back above the 50 mark. At the Sintra forum, Lagarde struck a notably more confident tone on the resilience of the European economy.
• The Fed turns more hawkish: new Chair Kevin Warsh has adopted a tougher stance than expected, supporting the dollar — though positioning already near historical highs may limit further near-term gains. Geopolitics is back in focus too, with the NATO summit and possible developments on the Russia-Ukraine front.

The key message is that AI isn't slowing down, but the market is starting to distinguish between those building the infrastructure and those who will actually capture its economic value. This points to two investment ideas for the second half of the year: Europe, supported by cheaper valuations, reforms and a potentially improving geopolitical backdrop; and gold, which looks attractive again after its correction, with lighter positioning and central banks still accumulating.

Global equity markets continue to navigate turbulent waters, as artificial intelligence reshapes economic fundamentals while new macro pressures force central banks and investors alike to rewrite the rulebook.  
In this episode:  
•          AI remains the dominant market driver, but breadth is finally expanding: roughly 75% of S&P 500 stocks have started to outperform the index itself — something we haven't seen on this scale for years — while the Magnificent Seven are essentially flat year-to-date. •          The SpaceX IPO successfully tested investor appetite for AI-adjacent stories: shares surged 50% in the first three trading days, with four leveraged ETFs launched as early as day two, setting the stage for upcoming listings such as Anthropic and OpenAI. •          The cost of AI tokens has fallen roughly 600 times between 2020 and 2026 — even faster than Moore's Law — creating a remarkable paradox: the cheaper AI becomes, the more it gets used and the more total corporate spending rises, shifting value away from models and toward infrastructure.
•          The Middle East reshapes sector rotations: oil prices have fallen approximately 30% over the past month following the reopening of key shipping routes, helping the Euro Stoxx 50 break out to new yearly highs.
 •          Central banks turn hawkish: the ECB delivered its first rate hike since September 2023, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled the end of the forward guidance era, favouring a more discreet and deliberately less predictable approach to communication. •          Gold corrects more than 20% from January highs despite rising inflation: a stronger dollar, higher real yields and net selling from emerging market central banks are the main culprits — though the sell-off may be opening an attractive entry point for patient investors.   The key message is that markets are at a crossroads: seasonally weak summer months, stretched technical positioning and the growing need to monetise AI all counsel caution in the most crowded areas. Yet the broadening of market participation and ongoing sector rotations suggest that, beneath the surface, a new market narrative is already taking shape.   For more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

The rally over the past two months has been extraordinary but beneath the surface, imbalances are emerging that are worth understanding.

In this episode: 
The rally hides a record concentration: the ten largest S&P companies account for over 40% of the index, surpassing the levels of the internet bubble, Japan in the 1980s, and the Nifty Fifty in the 1970s.
AI is the main driver: SK Hynix is ​​up 1,000% in twelve months, Micron is in the trillion-dollar club, and approximately 93% of US GDP growth over the last four quarters is attributable to tech investments and artificial intelligence.
Technical tension is lurking beneath the surface: individual stock volatility is at all-time highs relative to the index, leveraged ETFs manage $300 billion with a 2.5x effect and must rebalance up to $20 billion per session.
Wave of new supply coming: Goldman Sachs estimates over $200 billion in new IPOs and capital increases. The SpaceX IPO—valued at close to $1.8 trillion and raising up to $75 billion—could become the largest liquidity event in history.
The key message is that the risk today isn't an AI slowdown—it's the markets' growing reliance on this narrative. With record concentration, crowded positioning, and a huge amount of new supply coming, the real challenge this summer will be understanding how much room markets still have to absorb ever-higher valuations and expectations. To learn more, listen to the new episode of the series.

In this episode:

• S&P 500, Nasdaq and Semiconductors have staged an extraordinary rally from their March lows (+17%, +27% and +65%), fueled by record systematic fund flows, gamma squeeze dynamics and buybacks, but the rally remains concentrated in a handful of tech names while the average stock is still 13% below its highs.
• Artificial intelligence remains the true market driver: hyperscalers are "sold out," AI capex is expected to exceed $800 billion in 2026 and compute demand is growing at over 80% annually, but structural constraints are emerging in energy, chips and memory, already sold out through 2027.
• An exceptional earnings season — over 80% of S&P companies have beaten expectations with EPS growth of +27% — but beneath the surface, divergence is widening, with signs of stress among lower-income consumers and AI beginning to reshape the labor market.
• The energy shock linked to the Middle East is intensifying: global inventories declining at crisis-level pace, the UAE's exit from OPEC, US gasoline up 53% in ten weeks and the 30-year Treasury above 5%, with an increasingly divided Fed.
• The US-Europe divergence is growing, along with the underappreciated risk of "financial nationalism," as governments begin directing domestic savings toward local investments, potentially reducing support for US markets.

The key message is that the market appears resilient yet fragile: supported by strong earnings and the AI narrative, it is nonetheless colliding with real-world constraints on energy, infrastructure and the cost of capital, creating an increasingly delicate balance and a rising risk of volatility in the months ahead.

EMAIL SUBJECT: Market Flash – April 28, 2026 — New US highs, but beneath the surface the system is fragile MARKET FLASH – APRIL 28, 2026 In this episode:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs, driven by positioning and better-than-expected earnings. The rally was fueled by the forced re-entry of systematic funds, retail flows, and hedge fund short covering, but the geopolitical backdrop remains far from resolved.
• The US earnings season is surprising to the upside by roughly 10% above already optimistic expectations. Intel raised its guidance and the SOX posted 18 consecutive positive sessions (+50%) — something not seen even during the tech bubble. Attention now shifts to Amazon, Meta, and Google.
• Europe remains in the balance: Stoxx 600 growth is driven almost entirely by energy and financials, German PMIs have fallen back into contraction, and margins are starting to compress across the production chain. The energy shock is feeding through into the real economy.
• The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a physical chokepoint but a geopolitical and financial instrument, with US military presence increasing. Markets are pricing a swift normalization, but the reality on the ground is much slower and more unstable. This is a multi-fuel crisis about real availability, not just prices.

The key message is one of informed caution: strong markets and solid earnings coexist with deep vulnerabilities — geopolitical tensions, energy scarcity, margin pressure, and the risk of more persistent inflation. Beneath the surface, the global system is far more fragile than asset prices suggest. Central bank meetings are also on the agenda this week: guidance on inflation and energy costs will be critical in shaping expectations around the timing and scale of future rate moves. To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.











































Opus 4.6

In this episode:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted seven consecutive up days while Europe recorded its strongest single-day rally since March 2022. The rebound has been rapid, almost V-shaped, but the backdrop remains far more fragile than prices suggest.
• The two-week truce looks more like a tactical pause than a solution: no strategic objective achieved, no nuclear deal, no return to energy normality. The estimated cost to the US runs close to 1 billion dollars a day.
• The central issue remains Hormuz: headlines read "ceasefire," but in practice traffic through the Strait is still heavily reduced. The market is pricing financial peace well before physical peace, with much of the good news already baked in.
• The energy crisis is multi-fuel and potentially more systemic than 2022, with energy security driving structural demand for strategic metals. Inflation risks transmitting more deeply, while earnings season begins with +12% EPS expectations in a macro-driven market.

The key message is one of clear-eyed caution: the market has risen because it chose to believe the worst can still be avoided, but history teaches us that after shocks of this kind, the path is rarely a perfect V — far more often a W, made up of rebounds, fresh disappointments, and repeated tests of confidence. This is a time to stay cautious and, when appropriate, think like a contrarian. For more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.