In this episode:

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted seven consecutive up days while Europe recorded its strongest single-day rally since March 2022. The rebound has been rapid, almost V-shaped, but the backdrop remains far more fragile than prices suggest.
• The two-week truce looks more like a tactical pause than a solution: no strategic objective achieved, no nuclear deal, no return to energy normality. The estimated cost to the US runs close to 1 billion dollars a day.
• The central issue remains Hormuz: headlines read "ceasefire," but in practice traffic through the Strait is still heavily reduced. The market is pricing financial peace well before physical peace, with much of the good news already baked in.
• The energy crisis is multi-fuel and potentially more systemic than 2022, with energy security driving structural demand for strategic metals. Inflation risks transmitting more deeply, while earnings season begins with +12% EPS expectations in a macro-driven market.

The key message is one of clear-eyed caution: the market has risen because it chose to believe the worst can still be avoided, but history teaches us that after shocks of this kind, the path is rarely a perfect V — far more often a W, made up of rebounds, fresh disappointments, and repeated tests of confidence. This is a time to stay cautious and, when appropriate, think like a contrarian. For more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:

• The past two weeks have marked a sharp acceleration: what was once a choppy sea has turned into a full-blown storm. March is closing with one of the worst combined performances for equities and bonds since 2022, with Brent firmly above $110, up more than 60% since the start of the conflict.
• Markets continue to tell themselves a reassuring story, but signals beneath the surface suggest we may only be at the beginning of something more profound. The comparison now emerging is no longer 2022, but 2007–2008: the buffers that existed back then are today much thinner.
• The real game-changer in this crisis is gas. The disruption at Hormuz and the damage in Qatar have sent Asian gas prices surging by more than 150% in just a few weeks. Energy is becoming political leverage: the United States is using it as a negotiating tool with Europe, with agreements tied to roughly $750 billion in energy supply.
• Investors are selling everything at once — equities, bonds and even gold — moving into cash, but from historically low levels. The de-risking process may only just be beginning, with a real risk of entering a stagflationary environment that further complicates the mandate of central banks.

The key message is one of clarity: what is needed is composure, discipline, and the courage to make decisions with a clear head, not out of fear. In markets, just as at sea, it is not those who avoid the storm who prevail — but those who navigate through it without losing their way. To find out more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:Recent weeks have confirmed an increasingly complex market environment. Despite some signs of apparent geopolitical easing, macro markets continue to signal greater tension than what is reflected in equity indices. Oil remains close to $100 per barrel, U.S. Treasury yields have risen significantly, and inflation and credit indicators point to a gradual tightening of financial conditions. Equity indices, however, remain relatively close to their highs, suggesting that the market is still betting on a temporary crisis rather than a genuine regime change.Beyond energy, vulnerabilities are emerging across several strategic supply chains, including aluminum, refined fuels such as jet fuel, industrial gases like helium—critical for semiconductor production—and fertilizers. Essential infrastructure such as water desalination plants in the Gulf also represents potential points of fragility in the event of a prolonged conflict.This combination of pressures on energy, metals, and production chains increases the risk of a more complex macro scenario, characterized by persistent inflation and weaker growth. Such a backdrop complicates the task of central banks, precisely as the European Central Bank prepares for its next meeting amid high uncertainty.Equity markets are also reflecting this more uncertain environment. Major indices still show some resilience, but beneath the surface there are signs of growing nervousness, with sector rotation in Europe affecting cyclical industries such as luxury, construction, banking, and travel. In this context, some investors are once again looking with greater interest at large U.S. technology companies, perceived as more resilient businesses in an uncertain geopolitical environment.The key message remains cautious. In a market increasingly characterized by uncertainty and rapid rotations, flexibility, discipline, and risk management are becoming essential to navigate the coming months.To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode: The apparent stability of the S&P 500 is masking a far more complex reality. Since the start of the year, the index has been trapped in a relatively narrow 6,800–7,000 range, but beneath the surface dispersion has reached extreme levels: the gap between the 50 best- and 50 worst-performing stocks is the widest since 2005. Single-stock volatility is exceptionally high, while index volatility remains compressed. It is a divided market, supported by still-robust inflows and the reactivation of corporate buybacks, which are acting as a technical safety net. The epicenter of tension has been Nvidia: strong earnings were not enough to sustain the stock price, signaling that the market’s focus has shifted from growth to the sustainability of capex and returns on capital. At the same time, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by the widest margin since 1976, highlighting a change in leadership and the gradual erosion of mega-cap concentration. On the geopolitical front, the military escalation in Iran has brought energy risk back into focus. A potential oil supply shock could reignite inflationary pressures and limit the Federal Reserve’s room to turn more accommodative. Meanwhile, the debate around artificial intelligence is intensifying, with potentially significant implications for employment, credit markets, and business model sustainability. Signs of strain in private credit suggest that the credit cycle is entering a more delicate phase. Broadening the perspective, Europe is showing improving macroeconomic momentum and a constructive earnings season, while in the United States earnings growth is widening beneath the surface, with the median stock in the Russell 3000 delivering double-digit expansion. However, slowing global liquidity and multiple normalization point to a less forgiving environment for crowded trades and extreme narratives. The key message is clear: this is not a systemic crisis scenario, but a market that has entered a structural phase of dispersion and rotation. In an environment where the gap between winners and losers is at its widest in over two decades, selectivity, balance, and disciplined risk management are becoming central to navigating the weeks ahead. To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:
Six weeks into the year, markets have already gone through an extremely intense phase, marked by rapid rotations, frequent leadership changes, and strong volatility beneath the surface.Despite the S&P 500 remaining broadly unchanged, the average stock has experienced significant moves, highlighting a clear divergence between index stability and elevated dispersion across individual names.After a strong start supported by record inflows, the market has entered an accelerated adjustment phase. The sharp unwind in gold and silver, the decline in cryptocurrencies, and rotations linked to AI and momentum themes have triggered a normalization process, mainly impacting crowded positioning and growth factors.At the same time, the escalation of investment in artificial intelligence continues to represent the dominant structural theme. While concerns are emerging around the sustainability and monetization of these investments, the rapid improvement in model capabilities and productivity gains suggest a potentially historic economic transformation.The overall environment remains complex, with high volatility at the single-stock level and an increasing overlap between technical, political, and technological drivers. As a result, 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined by selection, flexibility, and active risk management.To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:
After one of the strongest starts to the year on record, markets are showing the first signs of a pause, without undermining the underlying message: 2026 is shaping up to be the year of broader participation and the end of extreme concentration. The outperformance of small and mid caps, the improvement in market breadth, and the quiet underperformance of mega-caps point to a deep structural shift compared with recent years. The macroeconomic backdrop remains surprisingly constructive, with twelve consecutive months of positive economic surprises and Europe benefiting from the rollout of fiscal plans, opening the door to growth exceeding expectations. At the same time, commodities are back in focus, with technical and fundamental signals suggesting a potential multi-year regime change, supported by geopolitical and strategic dynamics such as the growing importance of Greenland and critical raw materials. On the risk front, attention turns to Japan: the return of inflation, rising yields, and the implications for the global carry trade represent a potential source of systemic instability. In this environment, the earnings season will be crucial in confirming the broadening of the market, against a backdrop of elevated valuations, crowded positioning, and optimistic sentiment. The key message for 2026 remains positive but selective: markets supported by strong stimulus and structural trends such as AI, M&A activity, and corporate buybacks, but with higher volatility and a growing need for flexibility and adaptability to capture opportunities while managing risks. To learn more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast series, curated by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:

• The year opens with a strong start for markets after a challenging December: the historically positive signal from the first days of the S&P 500 reinforces the core message from the end of 2025, namely the transition into a new market phase that is less concentrated and increasingly driven by sector rotation.
• The political and geopolitical backdrop is already complex, as is typical of a mid-term year in Trump’s second term, with fiscal, monetary and regulatory policies seemingly moving in the same direction, supported by an unprecedented push for innovation.
• From a technical perspective, very constructive signals are emerging: upside breakouts across European indices, the S&P 500 approaching the 7,000 level and, above all, a continued broadening of market participation.
• As earnings season gets underway, attention will focus on AI-related capex and guidance, against a backdrop of exceptionally low volatility, elevated positioning and strong retail participation—factors that argue for a more cautious approach.

The key message for 2026 remains constructive but selective: global equities are favored, with strong rotations, regional divergences and risks to monitor, alongside attractive opportunities particularly in Europe and Asia, in infrastructure-related themes, defense and sectors benefiting from productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence.
For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:

• We are approaching the end of an extraordinary year, while looking ahead to a 2026 that is likely to be more volatile but potentially richer in opportunities, provided portfolios are managed with a more dynamic and flexible approach.
• After one of the worst starts on record, with the S&P 500 down nearly 15% by early April, the market staged an exceptional rebound: eight consecutive months of gains and a recovery of around 37%, a move historically seen almost only after deep bear markets.
• The rally was overwhelmingly driven by artificial intelligence: roughly 80% of the upside came from just 73 stocks, with Nvidia, Broadcom and Google alone contributing more than all non-AI sectors combined, highlighting an unprecedented level of concentration.
• Commodities have been among the top-performing asset classes of 2025, but deep fractures are emerging between physical and paper markets, driven by geopolitics, supply concentration and strategic stockpiling by central banks.

In a world where geography matters more than geology, politics more than price, and physical assets more than derivatives, these shifts represent a crucial input for strategic asset allocation heading into 2026. For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:
After weeks of warning signals, a sharp correction has arrived, concentrated in the most crowded trades:

• The Momentum factor is down 25% from its highs and Bitcoin has erased all year-to-date gains, while market liquidity dries up and investors are forced to cut exposure rapidly.
• Volatility is not driven by panic but by excess leverage: systematic funds were fully invested, retail investors heavily exposed through ETFs and derivatives, and asset manager cash levels at twenty-year lows.
• The core issue is AI: the main driver of US growth and S&P 500 performance, now under scrutiny for its dependence on credit, sustainability of cash flows and “circular financing”; Nvidia’s latest figures fuel concerns that the cycle may be entering a more mature and fragile phase.
• The global economy is running at different speeds: Europe remains weak with Germany stuck in structural stagnation, while in the US the strong aggregate demand masks a “K-shaped” divide between high-income consumers and households with shrinking savings.
• Despite tensions, earnings season is solid with 15% year-on-year growth and broader sector participation: a setup that favors healthier rotations and a market less dependent on a handful of names.

In this transition phase, prudence and resilience remain essential, but the correction is creating new opportunities: volatility can become a chance to build positions in a market that is finally broader and more balanced. For more insights, listen to the latest episode of the podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.

In this episode:

We’ve entered the final stretch of an exceptional year, but signs of change are multiplying.

• After six consecutive months of gains, the S&P 500 is showing its first cracks: extreme concentration in the “Magnificent 7” and recent weakness in the AI sector mark the start of a more selective phase.
• High valuations and early profit warnings in consumer companies reveal a polarized U.S. economy, where the strength of the wealthy coexists with the fragility of middle-income households.
• In the background, the U.S.–China truce highlights that the real battleground remains technology, while automation accelerates and reshapes the labor market.

In an environment of rising volatility and sector rotations, it’s time to refocus on real value: prudence, stock picking, and resilient portfolios will be key in the months ahead. To learn more, listen to the new episode of the Market Flash podcast hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.