Market Insights

Comentarios de Mercado - Noviembre 2021: de LATAM y los efectos de la inflacion transitoria.

Escuche nuestra llamada trimestral (cuarto trimestre): Ahmed Riesgo, director de inversiones de Insigneo, comparte las perspectivas de la economía y los mercados mundiales. Abordamos nuestra perspectiva para el último trimestre de 2021 para los activos globales, América Latina, y grandes temas como las monedas de reserva y las grandes tecnologías en los EE. UU. Y China.

Listen in on our Quarterly Call (Q4) - Ahmed Riesgo, Chief Investment Officer at Insigneo shares the outlook for the global economy and markets.

Lately, the political cliché of Afghanistan being the “graveyard of empires” has been thrown around quite wantonly. The political enemies of President Biden – both foreign and domestic – have alluded to the failed British excursions during the mid- and late-Nineteenth century, and the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 as historical precursors to this century’s failed American vicennium intervention. But as with all historical analogies, the devil is in the details rather than the trope.

Últimamente, el cliché político de que Afganistán sea el “cementerio de los imperios” se ha difundido de manera bastante desenfrenada. Los enemigos políticos del presidente Biden – tanto en el ámbito internacional como en el local – han aludido a las expediciones británicas durante la mitad y el final del siglo XIX, así como la salida de la Unión Soviética en 1989 como precursores históricos de la fallida intervención estadounidense de los primeros veinte años de este siglo. Pero como ocurre con todas las analogías históricas, el problema está en los detalles más que en los símbolos.

La respuesta es, depende". Es un mercado híbrido que exhibe características EM y DM. Al modelar las acciones, las acciones chinas se comportan mucho más como los mercados emergentes, especialmente en los casos en que las decisiones políticas importan más que los fundamentos de la empresa o la industria ... Escuche este episodio para obtener más información.

Insigneo Monthly Commentary - August - English

The answer is “it depends”. It is a hybrid market exhibiting both EM and DM characteristics. When modeling equities, Chinese stocks behave much more like emerging markets, especially in cases where policy decisions matter more than company or industry fundamentals... Listen to this episode to find out more.

A submarine’s military effectiveness has always depended on its ability to remain submerged and undetected. Surprisingly, the earliest vessels operated blindly under the sea, and until the twentieth century the only way for one to see was by surfacing. Of course, this revealed the submarine’s location to nearby vessels and conceded its invisibility. Since 1903, however, naval submarines have used a tubular optical instrument known as a periscope to get a look at their surroundings. To do so, they would ascend to approximately 60 feet below the surface, deploy their periscope, assess the field of view, and then quickly descend beyond the reach of surface vessels. While at periscope depth, the submarine surrendered some maneuverability and tactical ability for the sea level surface information. This was a well understood trade-off.

Given that current and forward EPS estimates were cratering in 2020 due to the pandemic and subse-quent shutdowns, there is little doubt that much of the S&P 500’s rapid ascent last year was due to an expanding multiple. The US 10-year touched a cyclical and all-time low of 0.50% back in August. The equity risk premium, which refers to the excess return that investing in stocks provides over the risk-free rate, made equities very attractive because sovereign bonds were so unattractive. In other words, it was not so much that equities were cheap, it was that the alternatives were very expensive. Indeed, the world looked quite grim during the depths of the pandemic.

In the 1966 film adaptation of Robert Bolt’s A Man for All Seasons, the indelible Paul Schofield, who played Sir Thomas More, then Lord Chancellor of England, roared like a lion during his exchange with his young son-in-law, William Roper. The subject of their contention – Richard Rich, the man who would later betray Sir Thomas and become Lord Chancellor himself – asked the incorruptible Sir Thomas if he would employ him under his charge. Sensing Rich’s lack of moral fortitude, he denies the request, and the eager Roper implores him to arrest Rich before he becomes an interloper at Court. Having committed no crime as of yet, Sir Thomas says that he shall let him go until he broke a law, even if Rich was the Devil himself.