Stocks gained for much of the week before a risk-off mood took hold on Friday following Israel’s sweeping attack on Iran. Energy, autos, and real estate equities led the market as oil prices surged and interest rates dropped. Tesla rebounded 10.22% as the spat between CEO Elon Must and President Trump seemed to cool, sending the Magnificent 7 up 0.63%. Forward earnings expectations for the S&P 500 appear to have stabilized as a weaker dollar should mechanically boost foreign profits. The forward P/E ratio hit 22x for the first time since February.

A weekly recap of equities, fixed income, commodities, and macroeconomic analysis from the FS Investments research team.

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U.S. stocks advanced with the S&P 500 gaining 1.5%, while long-term fixed income rates rose after a solid jobs report. Despite volatility from Trump’s comments on U.S.-China trade relations and a public fallout involving Tesla's CEO, markets were bolstered by a strong Q1 earnings season. Commodities saw oil prices rise, while Bitcoin declined but remained above $100,000. Economic indicators showed job gains in services sectors, steady unemployment at 4.2%, and falling imports, reflecting mixed economic signals.

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US stocks, particularly the S&P 500, edged higher with a 1.5% increase, reaching a 6% rise for May. Nvidia's strong earnings drove gains despite geopolitical tensions affecting the tech sector. Bond yields fluctuated as trade uncertainties persisted, and oil prices declined amid complex market factors. Economic data indicated cautious consumer behavior with minor GDP and inflation adjustments, and a slight drop in home prices.

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Equities rose with the S&P 500 up around 1% for the year, driven by reduced trade policy uncertainty with China and gains in technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Q1 earnings exceeded expectations significantly, but fewer companies provided forward guidance compared to last year. Interest rates increased but economic data later boosted bonds, with the 10-year yield finishing at 4.43%, and markets expect two rate cuts in 2025. Commodities saw minimal movement despite fluctuations in oil and gold, and economic data showed mixed results with retail sales slightly up and consumer sentiment hitting near-record lows.

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The S&P 500 edged lower this week amid mixed signals from trade negotiations and a more hawkish Fed, despite U.S. large caps exceeding Q1 earnings expectations. Interest rates rose slightly as the Fed ruled out preemptive cuts, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.36%. In commodities, crude oil prices recovered above $60/barrel on trade deal hopes, while gold prices saw slight increases due to trade war sentiment. Economic data softened but did not indicate a recession, with jobless claims falling to 228,000 but continued claims suggesting job finding remains challenging.

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US equities ended April strong with the S&P 500 up 3.1%, driven by easing US-China trade tensions, strong tech earnings, and a resilient labor market. The 10-year yield rose while the probability of a Fed rate cut in June fell, indicating renewed market faith in the economy. Commodities had mixed performances; oil prices declined due to demand concerns, while gold, copper, and Bitcoin saw gains. Key economic data showed a 0.3% decline in Q1 GDP, though a strong jobs report on Friday mitigated fears.

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US equity markets gained nearly 4% last week, mainly driven by positive signals on tariff policy and strong performance from Alphabet. Overseas, European equities also saw upward movement, while in fixed income, bonds gained and the 10-year yield settled at 4.25%. Oil prices collapsed due to potential OPEC+ production increases, and gold fell as the treasury market stabilized. The economic data indicated a rise in new home sales and durable goods orders, while initial jobless claims showed no significant signs of economic downturn.

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The FS Investments Market Minute for April 14, 2025, recaps a volatile week in equity markets, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ experiencing significant fluctuations due to trade policy uncertainties and macroeconomic concerns. Despite early-week declines, a historic rally occurred mid-week as tariffs were postponed, resulting in notable gains. Fixed income markets saw the yield curve steepen sharply amid intense volatility, while in commodities, crude prices remained stable but gold prices hit a record high due to geopolitical uncertainties. The economic overview highlighted resilient labor markets but indicated declining consumer sentiment and stagnant inflation data.

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The stock market experienced significant volatility due to newly implemented US tariffs, with major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 falling about 8% and the NASDAQ entering a bear market. This decline also impacted tech stocks and trade-dependent industries, while US revenue-heavy firms saw lesser declines. In response to the economic concerns, treasury yields dropped, and the Fed indicated it would take a measured approach to rate decisions, with predictions of multiple rate cuts in 2025. Commodities were affected, with crude oil prices falling due to increased supply from OPEC+ and reduced global growth expectations, while gold and Bitcoin showed mixed reactions.

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This week the increased volatility in the S&P 500, with the VIX ending above 20 due to renewed tariff concerns and negative economic data. The US announced 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts, negatively impacting global car makers and causing significant declines in equities like NVIDIA. In fixed income, the 10-year treasury yield rose to 4.3% amidst mixed economic data, with anticipated rate cuts in 2025. Commodities saw crude oil prices rising slightly, and gold continued as a strong performer, while economic data indicated a potential consumer pullback despite steady jobless claims and an increase in durable goods orders.

A weekly recap of equities, fixed income, commodities, and macroeconomic analysis from the FS Investments research team.

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