Market Narratives

John was the Chief Executive of the Grattan Institute for eleven years. He has published extensively on economic reform priorities, budget policy, tax reform, housing affordability, and generational inequality. This work is underpinned by themes of prioritising government initiatives, and the limits to government effectiveness.

John graduated from the University of Oxford in 1999 with a DPhil in public law after completing an LLB (Hons) and a BSc from the University of Melbourne in 1990. He has worked at the University of Oxford, the Victorian Department of Premier and Cabinet, consulting firm McKinsey and Co, and ANZ Bank in fields including law, public policy, strategy, and finance.

This conversation discusses the monetary framework alongside the macroeconomic environment, the notion of interest rates have been manipulated by central banks, convexity in fixed income, the defensiveness of fixed interest and real assets, the opportunity cost of cash,  optionality via options in a volatility market, why factor exposures are not preferred and the role of gold in portfolios.  

This conversation discusses digital transformation re people and technology, the speed of evolution/interdependence of systems, the challenges of big data for organisations, what can we measure and can we attain a complete sense of data, Nora Bateson's work on "warm data", AI’s ability to detect problems but not contextualise or understand its bias, and the significant challenges with ESG data. 
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Dr. Audrey Lobo-Pulo is the founder of Phoensight and on the board of Open Data Australia, and works in the space between society and technology. Audrey is passionate about how technology shapes our relationships and interactions and has a keen interest in open data, open government and public policy. She has considerable experience as a policy advisor at the Australian Treasury and worked across a range of policy issues including taxation, housing, social policy and labour markets. Audrey is currently exploring how 'warm data' may be used to design better technology and deliver better outcomes for society.

This episode discusses the disconnect between the economy and the equity markets, the changing relationship between valuations and future returns, the importance of tactical allocations in this environment, determining market expectations, finding diversification in a world driven by central bank policy, and commodities as a hedge against systemic risk.  

This episode discusses what differentiates a family office from a typical institutional investor, challenging the old adage of a family office to not lose money, where to focus limited resources, being opportunistic, the power of the network, how behavioural aspects impact risk tolerance, FX considerations, illiquidity preference and will there be a golden wave of private equity opportunities.  

This episode discusses the A-share, H-share and ADRs, relative value opportunities between onshore and offshore equity markets, correlation and volatility, the comparative strategies of growth, quality and value, management fees, the degradation of alpha, and the continuing challenge with ESG, data and transparency when investing in China.  

This episode discusses the Wirecard fraud, the cult of the CEO, due diligence in a Zoom world, the importance of desk work and insights from fieldwork, conflicts of interests when asset managers become partners and avoiding greenwashing in ESG. 

This article is based on the following article:
https://www.investmentmagazine.com.au/2020/06/the-power-of-the-eyes-and-finding-fraudulent-actors/

This episode discusses the systemic risks that the coronavirus has uncovered in Australia and steps to build a stronger Australia post-COVID. 

This article is based on the following article:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/05/here-are-10-steps-to-build-a-stronger-australia-after-coronavirus

The conversation covered: 

• Are super funds set up to deliver real long term performance? Moreover, how will scale impact their decision-making? 
• Is there anything that we can learn from the great investors of the past that could apply to super funds? 
• How to blend the competing forces of business and art?
• Why relative performance is a fool's game?
• Why is doing nothing not good enough?
• How to balance short term uncertainty with long-term structural market regime changes?
• Are boards equipped to understand what the critical decisions to make are?
• How do we instil courage into the decision-makers?
• Do super funds have the right approach to ESG and climate change? 

In Episode 36, I discuss with Anastassia Juventin, portfolio manager at AMP Capital about their hedge fund and alternatives portfolio restructure, the dispersion of manager returns, does alt risk premia still make sense, the challenge of VOL targeting and liquidity requirements.