Market Watch with Tom Waitt

October_10th_2012.mp3 Economy Shanghaied    Global economic activity is the key to shift pessimistic forecasts to a more optimistic outlook. Shanghai Composite Index (Click For Larger Picture) The European crisis has toned down but is a long way from producing impressive economic results for some time. The U.S. economy is stuck in a political shoot out that will drag out to the last second of the Presidential election and whoever wins is still likely to have little improvement for the balance of 2012. The wild card is China, the International Monetary Fund predicted China's economy, the World's second-biggest, will "soft land" by growing 7.8 percent this year and 8.2 percent next year, boosted by interest rate cuts in June and July. China has targeted growth of 7.5 percent this year. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages and showed early signs of outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index. Strength follows news that the Chinese government added $40 billion of monetary stimulus just prior to the Golden Week celebrated last week. GDP growth will likely be between 7% and the official target of 7.5% a long way from a recession. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional. Some information contained in this blog may no longer be time relevant, please use your own due diligence when investing.

October_3rd_2012.mp3 Debatable Outcome    U.S. Presidential debates begin tonight, television news reporters have pulled out all the same old supposed zingers from past U.S. presidential debates to warm up the audience for the imminent round of face-offs and gaffes. General Election: Romney vs. Obama (Click For Larger Picture) With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting differences between Republicans and Democrats often at polar opposites. The diverse polar split in the U.S. political arena is unlikely to let up for years to come. Some positive economic news is starting to filter out but the market lacks confidence It is hard to muster confidence in the economy when the fate of the World is in the hands of feuding politicians. Last month we posted a poll showing Obama and Romney virtually tied. Media reports in the last 24 hours show the gap closing once again. The uncertainty and lack of confidence is prevalent among many voters as well as current markets. Pessimism is currently rampant but the market is a trading environment and requires active management it is paramount to think outside the box and apply risk/reward analysis to your investments. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional. Some information contained in this blog may no longer be time relevant, please use your own due diligence when investing.

September_26th_2012.mp3 Emotions    Despite recent strength in equities the "Mood" has been negative and most funds have extremely high cash reserves. Market Emotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotion, which has caused extreme levels both up and down. Usually FEAR & GREED drives the market but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. Pundits suggest we have turned generations of investors away with lack of performance and a distrust of market integrity. Prior to reaching optimism is a series of rallies with doubt and despondency. Stock markets are a leading indicator for the economy and it appears a shift is coming. By the time the media picks up on this shift of attitude it will have moved the market. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional. Some information contained in this blog may no longer be time relevant, please use your own due diligence when investing.

September_19th_2012.mp3 Home Sweet Home    A root cause of the economic upheaval was the housing market. Today both new housing starts and existing home sales were released for August with impressive results. Housing Starts (Click For Larger Picture) Home sales have recovered after being a root cause of economic collapse. Existing home sales rose strongly for a second straight month, up 7.8 percent in August to an annual unit rate of 4.82 million. This is the largest monthly percentage gain since last August and the highest rate since May 2010. All regions show high single digit gains in the month. Supply on the market, at 6.1 months at the current sales rate, remains tight and may be limiting sales. Currently bullish sentiment is low despite equities challenging recent highs. The bullish sentiment is not as important as confidence which has been lacking with the recent melt up. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.

September_12th_2012.mp3 China Enters the 21st Century    Improvement in European and North American equity markets in the last few weeks is encouraging. The naysayers have now shifted their pessimism toward China. Total Electricity Consumption (Click For Larger Picture) Industrial Production (Click For Larger Picture) Despite positive news in Europe and better than expected U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States which rose 1.7% in the second quarter of 2012 backing up a series of economic indicators showing improvement. Media attention is focusing on a slowdown in China. Market pundits are predicting a 100% chance of a global recession in the coming six months, due to China having a hard landing. What is the best way to find the real growth of China? Historic correlations between electricity consumption and year-over-year GDP growth. The latest number for electricity output/consumption growth in China is 4.5% in July 2012 up from 3.7% in June and 2.7% in May 2012. So we can assume that year-over-year Chinese GDP growth will be between 5% and the official target of 7.7% a long way from a recession. A stagnation in electricity output that fanned speculation of a China slowdown may instead be evidence of an accelerated transition to a more services-based economy. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.

September_5th_2012.mp3 Too Close to Call    Confidence? It is hard to muster confidence in the economy when the fate of the World is in the hands of feuding politicians. But facts are building for an upward turn in Global Equities despite the disarray reported by the media. Romney VS. Obama (Click For Larger Picture) With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting differences between Republicans and Democrats often at polar opposites. The diverse polar split in the U.S. political arena is unlikely to let up before the November 2012 Presidential elections. The public is becoming very concerned over the financial situation globally with protesters again in the streets. Many feel credit will be too restrictive to support economic growth. Near panic emotions for some followers and market pundits are sensationalized by media coverage. With all the commotion in the world the U.S. is still the safe harbor, the Worlds main currency is still the U.S. Dollar. It is too close to call the U.S. election with Obama support at 46.4% and Romney at 46.3%. Uncertainty and lack of confidence is prevalent. Pessimism is currently rampant but the market is a trading environment and requires active management it is paramount to think outside the box and apply risk/reward analysis to your investments, There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.

August_31st_2012.mp3 Dollars and Sense    Foreign exchange rates (FOREX) can make or break investment returns. Canadian Dollar - US Dollar (Click For Larger Picture) As Canadians we often value and compare products in Canadian dollars and U.S. dollars. In the last 5 years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 in November 2007 and as low as .7656 in March 2009. To realize the absolute value of currency exchange rates consider this; a $25,000 U.S. car; the post war low on the Canadian dollar was .6179 in 2002 and reached a premium high against the U.S. of 1.1038 in 2007. The $25,000 U.S. car would have cost $40,460 in 2002 but only would have cost only $22,649 in 2007 a 78.6% change. Getting the currency right can make or break ones investment return, even a losing purchase could turn positive when conversions are made. It is paramount that investments are considered and evaluated for upside potential reward measured against potential downside risk. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.

August_29th_2012.mp3 Economic Growth    Pessimism runs rampant despite improving economic data. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012 stronger than earlier report of 1.5%. U.S. GDP Growth Rate (Click For Larger Picture) Despite an improving U.S. job and housing markets, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level it's been in several months. The results are the latest swing in the index, which has been on a rollercoaster. Better than expected U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States Rose 1.7% in the second quarter of 2012 and backs up a series of economic indicators showing improvement. Pending U.S. home sales is at the highest level in 2 ½ years. Earnings are improving with over 60% of reporting companies beating their estimates. Despite recent media attention and suggestions that we are headed into a recession which would be two quarters of negative GDP growth the facts do not support that call. These events must be analyzed as to how it affects individual stocks that will benefit from this ever changing economy with incredible potential. It is paramount that investments are considered and evaluated for upside potential reward measured against potential downside risk. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.

August_24th_2012.mp3 A Good Thing    Commodity prices have been steadily rising over the last two months. Is this a good thing, or bad?   CRB Index (Click For Larger Picture) Rising commodity prices have the media and market pundits warning of soaring inflation. Many analysts warn that the current easy money policy by global central banks will devalue currency and push commodities including food stock to levels unaffordable by many already unemployed. However bleak things seem, there is often another side to the story. In 2008 commodity prices peaked and fell 58% causing markets and the economy to crash. It took two years to recover and peaked in 2011 having risen 81% off depressed prices. Over the last year the economy and commodity prices have been subdued. Three months ago commodities bottomed out and economic activity started to pick up. The CRB index is rising but into overhead consolidation which should contain any run away prices and support is at June's low. This configuration will support increased economic growth while keeping inflation at bay. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.

August_22nd_2012.mp3 Back To Where We Were    Back to where we were. The housing market which was a key factor in the economic melt down has stabilized and is up 10.4% year over year.   Existing Home Sales (Click For Larger Picture) Over the last month we have seen the yield on U.S. treasury notes move up 50 basis points. An upward move of a ½ % could slow the recovery or may be the catalyst to encourage a surge of buying as rates show a bottom. Currently bullish sentiment is low despite equities challenging recent highs. The bullish sentiment is not as important as confidence which has been lacking with the recent melt up. Without confidence even the simplest accomplishments are beyond ones grasp. With many investors at current extremes contrary opinion is important; historically turning points come at these levels. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.