October_13th_2010.mp3 Soaring Freight Expenditures    Most people depend on the media to report on the economy and many associate movements in stock market indicies to reflect the level of underlying growth evident in the economy. That could be a dangerous assumption when investing.   Cass Freight Index (click for larger picture) When investing it is important to realize we have a market of stocks not a stock market. Most mutual funds and exchange traded funds attempt to diversify and aim to match a stock market index rather than dissect the actual growth patterns evident in today's economy. Stock indexes over the last decade have gone nowhere, buy and hold strategies have not worked and most mutual funds have shown negative results as management fees and trailer fees compounded the losses. We are on the eve of what may be surprising to most; robust economic growth. In 2010 freight expenditures have taken off and shipments are challenging pre crash highs. Businesses had aggressively slashed stocks of unsold goods to cope with weak domestic demand, weighing down economic activity, now as demand returns a rush to restock has freight expenditures soaring. This growth must be analyzed as to how it affects individual stocks not the over all market as it may indeed spell the beginning of the end of near zero interest rates and have downward pressure on stock market indices. There are however individual stocks that will benefit from this ever changing economy with incredible potential.   There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

October_6th_2010.mp3 Parity?    The Canadian Dollar value measured against major currencies affects the price of everyday purchases and investments. Recent commodity strength and U.S. Dollar weakness globally are pushing the Canadian Dollar toward parity to the American Dollar.   Canadian Dollar (click for larger picture) In 2010 the Canadian Dollar traded as high as 1.0066 U.S. dollars in April and as low as .9215 U.S. dollars one month latter in May. To realize the absolute value of this one month change consider a $25,000 U.S. car; it would cost $24,836 Canadian in April and as much as $27,130 Canadian one month latter in May, a difference of 9.2% which would also be your investment return on your money if you correctly anticipated the currency movement when investing. To highlight this point further the post war low on the Canadian dollar was .6179 in 2002 and reached a premium high against the U.S. of 1.1038 in 2007. The $25,000 U.S. car would have cost $40,460 in 2002 but only would have cost only $22,649 in 2007 a 78.6% change. Getting the currency right can make or break ones investment return, even a losing purchase could turn positive when conversions are made.   There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

September_29th_2010.mp3 Breaking Out of the Range    Global equities have traded within a 100 point range on the S&P 500 stock index over the last year, with several opportunities to buy at the 1045 level and sell at 1145 taking out 9.5% a number of times. Recent strength suggests a new upward bias.   S&P 500 Index (click for larger picture) As we approach the end of the third quarter fear and bearish forecasts still surround equity markets. It appears the third quarter will show a 10.9% advance from the 2nd quarter of 2010 using the bellwether S&P 500 Index and up 2.5% so far in 2010. However we are still up 7.8% from year ago levels.   There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

September_22nd_2010.mp3 Post Recession Rally    Economists officially declare that the recession ended in June 2009.   Money Flows (click for larger picture) Well its official, economists have declared that the recession ended 14 months ago. Since that time U.S. stock indexes are up 32% Canadian composite equities are 25% higher. Their timing might be off but have quashed fears of a double dip recession. A rising money flow line indicates that buyers of equities are being more aggressive, a falling line indicates more aggressive selling.  There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

September_15th_2010.mp3 Record Highs    Once again Gold bugs have infested the air waves. A record high was set yesterday at $1,276.50 an ounce, 7/10 of a percent above the last high in June. Should you buy or sell?   Gold (click for larger picture) Gold bugs are on the march again recommending holding gold as a core position in ones portfolio of investments. Gold is touted as the global currency and store of value in uncertain times. A historic peak in 1980 was $887.50 which fell 71% to lows set in 1999 of 253.70. Over the last 11 years it has risen a whopping 503% and was a great trade. But is it a good investment at $1270 an ounce today? It took 27 years to return to levels of 1980. In order to assess a current position one needs to determine upside potential and downside risk. Carefully choose investments based on their merit and not by recent popularity. Is there a dividend on gold? Is demand and supply in balance? One TV infomercial suggests you buy gold coins, another suggests you mail your gold jewelry in for cash. Even at current levels the holder of gold in 1980 has received a negligible return over 30 years.  There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

September_8th_2010.mp3 Copper - A Leading Indicator    Double dip? Recession concerns? Economic recovery? More stimulus spending required? Concerns of global recession permeate every newscast. What indicator should we watch to gauge the economy of the future?   Copper (click for larger picture) Recessionary fears are affecting communities globally and many are wondering if the situation is getting worse or if there is some improvement underway. Many gauge the U.S. dollar value or bond yield levels but both these indicators are being influenced by massive deficit spending plans globally. Gold is an indicator of fear and uncertainty not of economic activity. Historically copper prices have been a more accurate indicator of economic activity. Copper prices peaked at $4.26 a pound on, May 10th 2008 and dropped to a low of $1.25 by the end of 2008. Since that time we have seen Copper prices triple to $3.68 on April 17th 2010. China's investments in fixed urban assets such as railways and housing rose over 30% in the last year. Most copper is used by builders for plumbing and wiring, engines, electronic equipment etc.  There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

September_1st_2010.mp3 Bonds Fall, Rates Rise    Investors have been disappointed with the performance, or lack of performance of their mutual funds. Equity markets despite volatility have not been friendly to the buy and hold mentality. Many investors are jumping out the frying pan and into the fire of rising interest rates.   30 year US Treasury Bond Index (click for larger picture) Frustrations from 10 years of underperformance have seen many investors lock in a fixed rate at near record lows. The global bond market is more than three times the size of the Worlds' equity market, so what happens to bonds is crucially important. Bonds are in a huge bubble and that bubble could be very near bursting. Bonds could be killed by the slightest hint of higher interest rates. The bond markets response to Bernanke's speech last Friday was to crack bonds wide open as a preview of what can happen. In one day, three years of interest is down the drain as the bond values fell. Buying or holding bonds is not a guaranteed gain. Bonds are ready to take the fall, this will be an expensive decline, one involving trillions of dollars. Currently the U.S. 10 year Treasury Bond yields 2.59%. Historically through thousands of years it has been found the normal rate of interest is 7%. If we move to that level the 10 year bond will lose 31% of their principal value. In 1981 some will remember the Canadian prime rate reached 23% and fell as low as 2.25% and is currently 2.75%. Many conservative investors could find their savings tied up in bond funds in the wrong place at the wrong time as rates rise further.  There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

August_25th_2010.mp3 Fear and Greed    In the movie 'Wall Street', Gordon Gekko says, 'Greed is Good' as the market soars higher. In market parlance, the opposite of greed is fear which is bad for investments, as the market has a tendency to scare people out at the bottom and suck them in at the top.   Market Emotion Cycle (click for larger picture) 'Fear and Greed' tend to rule at market tops and bottoms. The market emotion cycle sees optimism turn to excitement, the thrill leads to euphoria and greed, slipping to anxiety, denial and fear followed by desperation panic, capitulation, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. Globalization is upon us, with what happens half way around the globe reported immediately and reflected in equity and bond market prices with virtually no delay. The problem is the global attitude, influenced by events turns cold and hot with every movement. The international investor attitudes changes in sync with yesterday's news reports. Market down, global attitude bearish, market up, reports of bullish pockets emerge. It is necessary to filter out news & views and find a comfortable way to invest through thick and thin, good and bad, bullish and bearish. The world of investments has become 24/7 with no down time to reflect on issues before human emotion has reacted. This has caused cycles of 'Market Emotion & Commotion'. The roller-coaster of emotional reactions are addictive and contagious moving from one time zone to the next.  There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

August_18th_2010.mp3 Global Market Results    It is difficult enough to track our own equity markets day to day but Global markets and events are important in this millisecond decision making World.   Global Market Results (click for larger picture) Global events and market fluctuations affect domestic markets instantaneously. Global equity markets have mixed returns shifting rapidly day to day minute to minute. At this point in time Japanese stocks are the weakest in 2010 off 12.38%. The strongest global equity player is Germany with an advance of 3.93% this year. North American equity markets are flat with mid cap issues outpacing senior and junior stocks. In Currencies the Euro remains weak off 10.3% so far in 2010. Wheat is leading global commodity markets soaring 28% this year while oil is off 6.4%.  There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.  

August_11th_2010.mp3 Rangebound    Global equity markets down, global equity markets up; day to day it is hard to understand, are we gaining or losing?   Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) (click for larger picture) Stock indices and most mutual funds have been poor performers over the last ten years. Ten years ago the Dow Jones Industrial average was 11,027.80. Today it is 10,466.10, 561.70 points lower, down 5% after 10 years. In 2010 we are off 791.91 points from the 2010 high, off 7% but up 851.78 points or up 8.9% from the 2010 low. Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly) (click for larger picture) It is not uncommon to have range bound trade between the 200 week moving average currently 11,052.27 and the 200 day moving average of 10,436.43. It is important to realize that it is a market of stocks not a stock market, but even indexes can be analyzed using risk/reward.  There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.