Market Wrap-Up

Harvest is underway, but it’s proving to be a dusty and quality-concerned harvest. Soybean quality is front and center after a stretch of persistent wet weather, with reports of significant damage showing up in some loads and some grain being rejected. That adds another layer of uncertainty as harvest progresses and traders begin positioning ahead of the WASDE report.

At the same time, we’re seeing a risk-off tone across both agricultural and non-agricultural markets. Cheaper prices may be part of the solution, with picnic cut prices dropping Thursday as the market looks for ways to stimulate demand. For grain traders, the focus remains on harvest progress, quality, demand and what Friday’s USDA numbers may bring.

Wednesday Market Wrap Up with Arlan Suderman at StoneX

President Trump signed an executive order Monday aimed at reducing diesel costs by temporarily allowing dyed diesel to be used on highways and deferring the applicable federal excise tax through the end of the year. The White House says the order also directs officials to explore ways to eliminate the obligation to pay the deferred taxes. The move comes as harvest gets underway, with producers dealing with delays and some unexpected grain-quality concerns in the field.

Meanwhile, markets continue to watch the broader economic picture, including inflation and the U.S. trade deficit. Mike Zuzolo takes a closer look at what those economic trends could mean for agriculture and the markets, as traders balance harvest progress, input costs and the larger economic environment.

Tuesday Market Wrap Up with Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics

Weather will remain top of mind for the markets as fields begin to dry out following a week and a half of heavy rain. The central U.S. is expected to turn drier, giving farmers an opportunity to get back into the fields and make up some lost harvest time. Temperatures are expected to run near to slightly above average. Grain-quality concerns are also showing up in some areas following the extended wet period, while a faster harvest pace could bring increased pressure to the grain markets.

Attention will also begin shifting toward Friday's USDA reports, including the October WASDE and Crop Production reports, both scheduled for release at noon Eastern. Export activity offered few major surprises, but fresh corn and soybean demand remains important as harvest progresses. Meanwhile, concerns over Black Sea supplies are adding another layer of uncertainty to the global grain markets. For now, traders are balancing improving harvest weather, harvest pressure, grain quality and demand as they look ahead to Friday's USDA numbers.

Monday Market Wrap Up with Maree Johnson at AgMarket.Net

Friday’s grain trade was marked by very light volume, with crude oil attempting to recover while soybeans continued to trade in the red. Markets are still dealing with the hangover from Wednesday’s USDA Grain Stocks report, which showed U.S. corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels—well above trade expectations—while soybean stocks came in below expectations at 315 million bushels.

The focus shifts next week from the concern over wet conditions slowing harvest to whether the expected dryout will allow farmers to pick up the pace. Weather and harvest progress will remain key market drivers, with traders also looking ahead to another USDA report Friday.

China will be on holiday next week, limiting the potential for fresh headlines from one of the market's key soybean buyers.

Geopolitical tensions are also adding another layer of uncertainty. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia is closely monitoring European companies producing and supplying weapons to Ukraine and described Western assistance that could support strikes deeper inside Russia as a threat. That backdrop leaves the European Union facing continued questions about grain supplies and where it may source corn, potentially creating opportunities for U.S. exports.

Meanwhile, domestic soybean demand remains an important part of the story. Crushers are looking for beans, and delays in harvest are making it more difficult to replenish supplies. With processors needing soybeans and farmers dealing with weather-related harvest delays, the soybean market has another fundamental issue to watch as October gets underway.

For now, the market remains caught between the bearish weight of Wednesday's USDA numbers and the potential for improving harvest conditions, with next week's weather and Friday's USDA report likely to provide the next major catalysts.

Friday Market Wrap Up with Heather Ramsey of the ARC Group.

The market may continue to digest the fallout from Wednesday’s USDA Grain Stocks report, with questions still surrounding the larger-than-expected corn inventories.

Weather and grain quality will remain key factors for the grain markets in the near term. After the initial reaction to the report, markets could see some regrouping and consolidation ahead of the next major USDA report.

In cattle, the back months continue to lead the way, with deferred contracts showing strength as traders look ahead to changing feed costs and the longer-term supply outlook.

Thursday Market Wrap Up with Sam Hudson at Cornbelt Marketing

Wednesday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report delivered a bearish surprise for corn, with September 1 inventories coming in at 2.095 billion bushels—well above trade expectations and up 35% from a year ago. The number was also above the high end of pre-report estimates, confirming a much larger old-crop supply entering the new marketing year.

USDA also revised the 2025 corn crop lower by roughly 57 million bushels, primarily by reducing harvested acreage while leaving the record yield unchanged. The combination of smaller production but substantially larger-than-expected stocks points to weaker-than-anticipated disappearance during the final quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year.

Markets are keeping a close eye on the weather and the slow start to harvest. Overnight weather models remain consistent, calling for heavy rain across the western Corn Belt through the week before conditions turn drier and warmer next week. Even then, harvest progress could remain sluggish as flooding and ponding leave some fields difficult to access.

If forecasts verify, Iowa could see more than 7 inches of rain during September—more than twice the average and potentially the wettest September in more than 60 years.

Now, attention is turning to Wednesday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report. For corn, the trade is looking for September 1 inventories of 1.918 billion bushels, which would be a six-year high and well above the 1.551 billion bushels reported a year ago.

Soybean stocks are expected to come in near 324 million bushels, just below last year's 325 million. USDA will also finalize the 2025 soybean and corn production numbers, along with the old-crop carryout.

With weather slowing harvest and potentially affecting early fieldwork, Wednesday’s report could provide another key piece of information for the markets.

Tuesday Market Wrap Up with Mike Zuzolo at Global Commodity Analytics

A rough start to the week in the grains and oilseeds with soybeans the leader to the downside on Monday. Was it all related to disappointment with US/China trade news? What about this week's Grain Stocks report, end of the quarter, harvest pressure and more? Cory Bratland with AgMarket.net joins us for a rundown of the grain and livestock markets on Monday.

With the Trump–Xi meeting now in the books, how has the outlook for U.S. agricultural trade with China changed, particularly for corn and soybeans? Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Grain Stocks report and how the numbers could impact the corn and soybean balance sheets. At the same time, Brazil is beginning to plant, putting South American weather on the market’s radar earlier in the season. And with recent volatility creating plenty of uncertainty, should producers be making adjustments to their marketing plans, or staying with the strategy already in place?

Friday Market Wrap Up with Jeff Peterson at Heartland Farm Partners

The U.S.-China trade truce has been extended, but a broader trade agreement remains uncertain. Now the question for agriculture is: Will we finally hear more about the $17 billion in additional U.S. ag purchases—outside of soybeans?

Soybeans are getting another layer of attention as harvest weather becomes a bigger market story. Midwest rain could slow harvest, while soybean crushers are watching supplies closely as they look to keep plants running.

More rain is expected across parts of the Midwest, adding another variable to an already complicated harvest and demand picture.

Thursday Market Wrap Up with Heather Ramsey at the ARC Group