Equity markets pulled back again on Wednesday after the FOMC minutes revealed more risks than previously feared, and the minutes cited tight labor markets and higher-than-acceptable wage inflation, among other risks to inflation. The risks could lead to additional rate hikes not priced into equities. This sets up a situation in which the FOMC outlook darkens and puts additional weight on the market. In this scenario, the top reached by the S&P 500 is the highest level investors will see until later this year or next.

The risk is centered on the FOMC again, but the driver of that risk is oil. Oil prices retreated this week but remain uptrending and are on the verge of breaking out to new highs. The market is tilted in favor of higher prices, although the data has some volatility. The odds are high that oil prices will continue to trend higher through the end of the year and lift consumer-level inflation along with it.

Equity markets pulled back on Tuesday due to a double dose of fear-inducing news. The first is fear of a renewed crisis in the banking sector. Fitch warned it might have to downgrade some banks, including top names like JPMorgan Chase if credit conditions deteriorate much further. The second is new out of China that include weak industrial production. The news raises the fear that economic momentum will quickly fade and impact GDP and S&P 500 earnings.

The S&P 500 fell more than 1% at the sessions low. If the index closes lower for the week, it will market the 3rd straight week of decline. The price pullback marks a top for the market; the question is how deep the pullback will be. The way it looks, the pullback is gaining momentum and could gain additional momentum this week when the FOMC minutes are released. Signs the Fed is still hawkish will weigh heavily on the outlook for economic activity and earnings.

Equity markets were steady on Monday as traders waited on key reports from the retail sector. The July reading of Retail is due today, along with reports from Home Depot and other major retailers. Walmart and Target are also expected to report this week and will indicate what to expect from the consumer in Q3 and Q4. The story so far is that shifting consumer habits are cutting into discretionary spending, but rising inflation continues to sustain solid spending.

The next major hurdle for the market comes on Wednesday when the FOMC releases the minutes from their last meeting. The committee is not expected to indicate a rate hike at the next meeting, but inflation trends suggest the rhetoric will be hawkish. The question is if the market will heed the warning, if any, that additional hikes are coming. As it is, the market is pricing in a low expectation for another hike in 2023.

Equity markets continued to decline last week after inflation data pointed to a high likelihood of additional FOMC interest rates. The steady pace of CPI combined with hotter-than-expected PPI and rising oil prices suggests that inflation could accelerate and drive the FOMC to hike rates not 1 more time but 2 or more. In this scenario, there will be multiple bank failures and a curb on consumer demand unlike any in more than half a century.

The S&P 500 shed about a half percent, moving to a 1-month low for the week. There are no significant targets for solid support above the 150-day EMA, so a larger decline is expected. A move down to that level would be worth another 4.5% for the broad market and open the door to an even deeper decline. This week, the FOMC minutes will give additional clues to the FOMCs next move and could move the market.

The equity market went on a wild ride Thursday after the headline CPI reading was weaker than expected. The news sent a wave of relief through the market as investors looked for clues to the Fed's next move. The relief was short-lived because the data, while cooler than expected, is an acceleration from the previous month, and the core figures are still hot. In this scenario, the FOMC is still expected to increase rates later this year.

The news helped send the oil price down more than 1%. This is good news for the inflation picture, but the downturn may not last long. OPEC+ has the market tilted firmly in favor of higher prices, and that will only change with demand destruction. As it is, demand for oil remains high and underpinned by a healthy labor market. If oil continues to trend higher as it has the last 2 months, inflation will spike again later this year.

Equity markets tread water on Wednesday as traders and investors await today's critical inflation report. The July CPI report is expected to show inflation remains hot and will lead the FOMC to hike rates again later this year. With oil prices breaking out to new 1-year highs, cool data may not matter because inflation will rise again. The price of WTI is moving steadily higher under the force of supply/demand imbalances put in place by OPEC. The way the market is tilted, it is likely that WTI will soon be tickling the $100 region.

The next hurdles for the market will come next week when the major retailers begin reporting. Consumer spending has underpinned the economy for the last 2 years and is expected to sustain steady results, if not growth, in the retail industry. The question is which retailers will come out on top given the shifts in spending habits caused by inflation. Discretionary names may not fare well.

Equity markets fell on Tuesday following a downgrade in the banking sector. Moody's downgraded several mid-sized banks causing the entire market to fall. Investors bought the dip so the rally may not be stalled; the caution is that CPI data due on Thursday could be hotter than expected. Regardless, the CPI is expected to come in relatively flat compared to the prior month, which is not a signal for the FOMC to lower interest rates.

The S&P 500 fell more than 1.0% at the session's low but rebounded to regain more than half the loss by the end of the day. The move shows support at the 30-day moving average, but support may be fleeting given the upcoming CPI report. Inflation is underpinned by oil prices, among other factors, and oil prices are on the rise. WTI had a volatile session on Tuesday but rebounded from its lows to close with a gain. The takeaway is that the FOMC is still a risk, and it will likely raise rates again.

Equity markets started the week on solid footing, but the rebound may be short-lived. Another round of inflation data is due out this week, and it could halt the market in its tracks. The July read of the CPI is due on Thursday, and it is expected to show the deceleration of inflation has slowed. Core inflation is expected to hold relatively steady at 4.7% and well above the Fed's target rate. At this level, the market should assume the Fed will have to hike rates again later this year and maybe more than once. As it is, the market is only offering a 30% chance for another interest rate hike this year.

The earnings season is coming to a close, and the results are not good. More companies than average beat their consensus targets but by a smaller-than-average margin leaving the final growth rate deep in negative territory, and the outlook for the 2nd half deteriorated. The odds that the S&P 500 will post negative earnings growth in Q3 are high, and the odds for Q4 are rising. In this scenario, the market is nearing a tipping point and may soon teeter into another deep correction without a shift in the fundamental outlook for economic growth.

A weaker than expected jobs report lifted the market. The contrarian logic is that weakening employment numbers will give the Federal Reserve room to pause its campaign of raising interest rates.

However, after a strong rally to start the day, stocks closed the week slightly lower. Higher bond yields have been pushing buyers away from stocks.

This week was a net win for the bears. And it sets the stage for economic data coming in next week. Palantir will deliver its quarterly earnings on Monday which is expected to be a market moving report. Investors will also get more information about the direction of inflation when the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are released.

These reports could point to a continued downward trend. But investors should be cautious, because it?s likely that rising oil prices are not yet priced in.

Markets had a choppy day that ended with all the major indexes posting slight losses. Investors may still be taking profits after Fitch downgraded the United States credit rating.

However, the markets may also be reacting to oil prices which surged to over $81 a barrel as Saudi Arabia announced it would extend its production cut at least through September. That could be adding to concerns about rising inflation. Investors will get the next read on consumer prices and producer prices next week.

But as this week comes to an end, the markets are eagerly awaiting earnings from Apple which will come in after the market closes. That report, along with the jobs report tomorrow will set the tone for the market heading into another week of earnings.