MarketBeat Minute

Equity markets advanced on Wednesday, setting a new three months ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday. The move is partly due to a gain in Microsoft driven by the reinstatement of Sam Altman to the held of OpenAI. Shares of Microsoft moved up to set a new all-time high on the news and could head higher. The company is establishing itself as a rival to AI powerhouse NVIDIA and will likely build on the momentum gained in 2023.

The S&P 500 closed with a gain near 0.5%, but the move wasn't strong. The index tests resistance at a critical level and has difficulty advancing above it. If the market doesn't commit soon, bearish traders could come back to the market. In this scenario, the index is capped at critical levels and below the all-time high, where it is likely to remain range-bound. With the holiday shopping season looking like a bust, it's unlikely the S&P 500 will set new highs soon without a change to the fundamentals. That won't come without a change in the FOMC policy stance, which isn't likely until next year.

Equity markets stumbled on Tuesday on mixed results from Lowe's and other retailers. The quarterly results were mixed with top-line weakness but margin strength to drive outperformance on the bottom line. Still, it was the guidance that sapped investors' confidence. The guidance points to a weaker-than-expected holiday quarter, but there is a caveat. The caveat is that weaker-than-expected guidance has been the theme in retail all year and offset by better-than-expected reality. If this trend continues, the holiday quarter shouldn't be too bad.

Other news impacting market sentiment includes the FOMC minutes. The minutes from the last meeting gave no indication that a rate cut was near, which isn't what the market wants to hear. The market is ready for the first cuts to start soon so that the housing market can get unstuck, but it could be disappointed. Although the pace of inflation is slowing it is still high, and the FOMC needs to be sure that inflation is tamed, so higher-for-longer is still the name of the game.

Equity markets stumbled on Tuesday on mixed results from Lowe's and other retailers. The quarterly results were mixed with top-line weakness but margin strength to drive outperformance on the bottom line. Still, it was the guidance that sapped investors' confidence. The guidance points to a weaker-than-expected holiday quarter, but there is a caveat. The caveat is that weaker-than-expected guidance has been the theme in retail all year and offset by better-than-expected reality. If this trend continues, the holiday quarter shouldn't be too bad.

Other news impacting market sentiment includes the FOMC minutes. The minutes from the last meeting gave no indication that a rate cut was near, which isn't what the market wants to hear. The market is ready for the first cuts to start soon so that the housing market can get unstuck, but it could be disappointed. Although the pace of inflation is slowing it is still high, and the FOMC needs to be sure that inflation is tamed, so higher-for-longer is still the name of the game.

Equity markets had a lot to give thanks for on Monday and rose 0.75%. The move took the S&P 500 to the highest level since July and is on track to continue higher. The market is at a critical resistance point that, if crossed, opens the door to a larger move. The S&P 500 could advance to the 4,800 level in this scenario before hitting its next resistance point.

This week is an uncertain time for the market. The end of the Q3 earnings reporting season is at hand, and holiday trading conditions are present. This means low volume and an above-average chance for volatility. Because the biggest name reporting this week is NVIDIA, there is a good chance that markets will be volatile on Friday. NVIDIA is expected to nearly triple its revenue compared to last year and may exceed that given the demand for AI and services.

The S&P 500 advanced for the third consecutive week last week, but the rally may be over. The weekly candle is strong, but the dailies show gaps, froth, spinning tops and resistance at a critical level. This level has provided resistance multiple times and is the starting point of the sell-off, which began over the summer. Investors should expect another significant sell-off to happen soon if the market can not get above this level.

This could be a quiet week for the market. The Thanksgiving Holiday will shorten the trading week by a day, and not many economic or earnings reports are due. The single report of interest is NVIDIA, which is scheduled for Tuesday night. The company is expected to grow revenue by nearly 200% and could outpace the estimates given the demand for AI. Guidance may also be good and should help lift the stock price. If not, it will be due to fears of market share loss to up-and-comers with advanced chips like Advanced Micro Devices and Microsoft.

Equity markets nearly snapped a 3-day winning streak on Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising marginally for the day. The move was sparked by fears of slowing consumer spending and the possibility of deflation and recession. In that scenario, deflating prices and slowing demand could equate to widespread job losses, stagnating GDP growth and aggressive FOMC rate cuts. While rate cuts are what the market wants, they may come at a cost that will trim significant value off the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 is at another critical juncture with little more than a month left in the trading year. Next week is the Thanksgiving Holiday, and after that, December. With inflation in retreat and the FOMC in wait-and-see mode, Santa Claus may bring a rally to Wall Street. No major economic releases are due, but a few earnings reports, including NVIDIA, could amp up the market. The company's solid momentum could easily lead to outperforming the astronomical estimates. Revenue for the AI-chip leader is expected to ramp nearly 175% YOY.

Equity markets extended their gains on Wednesday following a better-than-expected Retail Sales figure and healthy reports from retailers Target and The TJX Companies. Both produced substantial bottom-line strength, although the causes were different. In the case of TJX Companies, sales traffic led to revenue growth and margin leverage, while Target leaned into discounts to reduce inventory. The takeaway is that consumers remain resilient if price-conscious and in search of bargains.

The S&P 500 advanced about 0.5% at the session high, but weakness started to show; by the end of the session, the market was trading near break-even. The day's candle stick formation is a small spinning top with a visible upper shadow that reveals resistance below critical levels. Because the market is overbought at current levels and trading within an established range, it will likely sell off soon without another catalyst to drive it higher. The earnings season is all but over, and there are no major economic reports due until after the Thanksgiving Holiday so another catalyst may be hard to come by.

Equity markets advanced on Tuesday following a cooler-than-expected CPI report. The headline CPI was flat compared to the prior month, resulting in a 3.2% YOY gain, while the core figure declined to 4.0% YOY and the lowest level in 2 years. The news is on track with the idea that inflation is subsiding and the FOMC will not raise interest rates anymore, causing the S&P 500 to gap higher at the open and rise more than 2.0% at the session's high. The move suggests another attempt by the S&P 500 to cross above the 4,550 level, which could come soon.

The risk for the market is retail earnings. The retailers are reporting this week, and signs of upcoming weakness are already present. The report from HD continues the trend established earlier this year in which quarterly results were better than expected, but guidance was lowered. This situation creates an unstable foundation for markets to rally and may cap gains at the critical level. With the outlook for Q4 earnings growth already receding, weak guidance from the retail sector could send the consensus figure for the broad S&P 500 below 0% and spark the next market correction.

Equity markets were flat on Monday as traders brace for a big week for stocks. Not only is the October read of the CPI due, but there is a raft of earnings reports from the retail sector and Retail Sales data on the calendar. The market expects to see weakness in consumer spending and may not be disappointed. The latest data from the NRF shows retail sales contracting for the 2nd month. Retailers slated to report earnings include Home Depot, Target, Walmart, and the TJX Companies.

The S&P 500 is poised to advance, given an excuse to do so. That may come with the CPI data, which is expected to show cooling inflation compared to last year. If the figures come in cooler than expected, specifically at the core level, the market will most likely rally on renewed hope that the FOMC has reached the cycle's peak. If not, the market may be capped near recent highs and enter another correction before the end of the year.

Equity markets advanced last week despite another hawkish twist in the FOMC saga. Fed Chief Jerome Powell apparently contradicted his own comments that the peak of the rate hiking cycle was near. He says the committee is not confident it's properly positioned to bring inflation back to the 2% target. In this scenario, the Fed will need to hike rates at least 1 more time to be sure and may need to hike more than once if inflation persists at above-target levels.

This week will bring a host of catalysts for the market including the CPI reading and earnings from retailers. Retailers from Home Depot to Target, Walmart, and TJX Companies are on deck and will give a deep glimpse into the state of the consumer. While spending is expected to remain solid shifts in habits favor Walmart and the off-price retailers. The real question is how the holiday season is shaping up and how much discounting it will take to drive store traffic.