Fear of unemployment jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44% in March, according to a New York Fed survey. That’s the highest it’s been since April 2020. Expect the commercial real estate market to feel that same vibe. Companies concerned about a tariff-induced recession may make cuts or stick with Zoom instead of leasing new office space, experts told us. Also: Uncertainty is driving up junk bond yields, foreign investors may be pulling back on U.S. markets, and we talk to a small-business executive in “survival mode” over tariffs.

Just like some people fudge the numbers to lower their taxes, some companies do the same when paying tariffs on foreign goods. The federal government is mostly trusting that what’s in that shipping container is actually 100 bicycles, and not 500 bicycles. But erratic, rapidly changing trade policy is making it easier to evade tariffs, a customs broker told us. Also in this episode: Car insurance costs dip (but probably won’t stay down), a six-figure household income isn’t what it used to be, and the U.S. dollar takes a tumble.

Stocks aren’t the only assets in the financial markets that were beat up this week by President Trump’s tariffs. Bonds suffered too. After 3-year Treasury yields rose in the face of disappointing demand, bond investors are scrutinizing Treasury auctions for signs of further weakness. Also in this episode: Trump's anti-DEI push could hurt minority contractors, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic counsels caution and a millennial in Texas dreams of becoming a homeowner.

We’ve said it more than once lately: This economy is defined by uncertainty. And as President Trump makes aggressive, if erratic, moves on trade and federal funding, firms and organizations are taking action to protect their interests. In this episode, some universities issue bonds ahead of federal funding cuts and some companies retract their investor guidance for 2025. Plus: Tariffs can’t reshore every sector of manufacturing and we launch a series documenting the consumer economy, focused on the views and experiences of people. 

The issuance of corporate bonds has slowed to a crawl, thanks to all that uncertainty in the economy. And without raising money in the bond market, firms may pull back on long-term investments. Also in this episode: The Democratic Republic of the Congo extends its ban on cobalt exports to raise prices, strains in the bar and restaurant business lead to closures and we answer listener questions on trade policy.

Import levies on Chinese goods amount to 54% right now. But some things that China excels at producing will likely remain in China. In this episode, why shoemaking can’t up and leave anytime soon. Plus: Copper prices ballooned and tanked in the past few weeks, European carmakers weigh their options in the trade war and recession fears, not inflation fears, are driving bond yields.

Tariff-driven inflation will hit Americans with the lowest incomes the hardest, slashing their disposable income by at least $1,700 a year, the Yale Budget Lab predicts. We’ll explain why. And the labor market could suffer too if demand falls for all those higher-priced products. Plus, New Mexico allocates oil and gas revenue to child care programs, and in booming West Texas, some residents struggle to access running water.

Uncertainty about tariffs and trade policy has been top of mind since President Donald Trump’s election in November. We finally know how high those tariffs will be (between 10% and 54%) and to which countries they’ll apply (almost all of them). Now, a key question is: How much will prices rise? In this episode, business owners prep for the costs and some economists predict an economic downturn. Plus: The administration wants the IRS to share undocumented immigrants’ protected information with Homeland Security.

Corporate dealmakers hoped merger and acquisition ventures would heat up this year. But the first quarter of 2025 saw the slowest M&A activity in more than a decade, according to Dealogic. In this episode, why firms aren’t shelling out billions to buy another company in this economy. Plus: Nintendo announces a new Switch console, Gen Z suffers in a low-hire, low-fire job market, and a new study shows nonwhite bankruptcy filers face a lower likelihood of debt relief.

People feel richer — and spend accordingly — when their assets rise in value. That’s called the wealth effect. But when folks get their retirement account statements for Q1 of 2025, they may feel the opposite, since most of those accounts lost value. Will Americans pull back on their spending as a result? Plus, subcompact cars steer into the sunset, farmers are pessimistic about tariffs, and very small businesses can be a bellwether of economic trends.