With

Jason Lui, Head of East Asia Strategy

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 24 March 2022)   

The China economy is facing headwinds from both domestic (Covid outbreaks) and external (Russia-Ukraine conflict) factors. We discuss how the Chinese policymakers may introduce new policy measures to maintaining their commitment of regaining

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With

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 18 March 2022)   

Have concerns over Russian Sanctions been a material factor in driving nickel prices to record highs?   

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With: 

Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA, Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

Ankit Gheedia, CFA, Head of Equity & Derivatives Strategy, Europe

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 09 March 2022)   

Slower growth, higher inflation and risk of policy tightening will weigh on equities in the near term, in our view. We would not buy the dip in equities in the very near term in Europe, despite our medium-term positive fundamental view. 

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With: 

Luigi Speranza, Chief Global Economist

Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 04 March  2022) 

With the pandemic still ongoing, the global economy now faces another shock in the form of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much like Covid, this is a shock which affects both the demand and supply side of the economies. It is also similar in that this has a downward impact on economic growth, and an upward impact on inflation. The policy response, however, is more unclear. 

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With: 

Marcelo Carvalho, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research  

Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets

Burak Baskurt, CFA, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 02 March  2022) 

Impacts to the Russian economy will be substantial, and include double digit inflation and a sharp recession. The country has also reacted with counter-sanctions.  

One of the main channels of transmission to the rest of the world will be through added inflationary pressures coming our way.  

In EM, Central and Eastern Europe are the most exposed not only geographically but through trade, while Asia may be more isolated from impacts.

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With: 

Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist  

Luca Pennarola, Economist, Europe

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 17 February  2022) 

We think supply chain bottlenecks should ease over the course of 2022.

However, the road to a new normal could be a bumpy one.

In this podcast, we explain how we are tracking developments and their impact on growth and inflation. 

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With: 

Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA,  Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 15 February  2022)   

We find that the USD performed better when the starting level of rate spreads was wide and in the USD’s favour, especially if US risky assets are stable despite higher yields.

We also find that the speed of tightening is not indicative of USD performance throughout the cycle.

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With: 

Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist 

Pawel Struski, Inflation & Macro Quant Strategist

As inflation reaches new record highs in the eurozone, are we going to see stronger wage growth coming through too? We think the answer is yes, but it will take time.

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With

Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360

David Martin, Head of Commodities Desk Strategy

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 3 February 2022)     

OPEC+ concluded its monthly meeting on Wednesday. 

On paper, the rapid endorsement of a further 400 kbd in March OPEC output is exactly what the market requires, in our opinion, given the continued recovery in demand.  

However, in reality OPEC+ continues to under-deliver against its agreement, with initial January estimates point to as little as an additional 120-150 kbd of production in January versus December.

Unless OPEC+ can accelerate production growth, then in our opinion, the cumulative under-delivery versus plan – which the IEA assessed at near 800 kbd in December is set to accelerate in the coming months.

Thus, even as OPEC’s own assessment of the market points to continued surpluses in the coming quarters, it appears predicated on a continuous increase in OPEC+ supply that seems unachievable. 

The reality is that the market participants may need to prepare themselves for continued draws especially in H2 2022 and 2023.  

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With

Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360

David Martin, Head of Commodities Desk Strategy

David Wilson, Metals Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 3 February 2022)     

In the hypothetical event of a full-blown conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we would expect the main impact on commodity markets to be higher European gas prices. 

There could be further direct effects on global gas, oil and metals markets, proportionate to the impact of a loss of Russian production.

In a worst-case scenario, we estimate European gas prices would be pushed to fresh highs of EUR200/MWH and remain above EUR160/MWH for much of 2022. 

Oil markets would likely see an increase of USD5-10/bbl in a conflict scenario, depending on the scale and duration of any sanctions applied to Russian exports. 

Russian aluminium and nickel exports to North America and Europe are crucial to market balance and liquidity. Consequently, we expect nickel and aluminium would be the worst-affected base metal markets in the event of sanctions on Russia. 

In a worst-case scenario, we see a short-term price impact of 10% and 16% on aluminium and nickel prices, respectively, from current levels. 

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