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Markets Don't Crash on Conflict News | Here's the Real Pattern
In this episode of The Philosophical Quant, Michael walks through the math behind what normally happens in markets during U.S.-involved Middle Eastern conflicts. Using roughly the last 12 events going back to 1992, he compares what happened one week, one month, and six months after conflict involvement—then checks individual S&P 500 charts from recent examples.
The key pattern: short-term volatility with “not going anywhere” chop, followed by a month of continued back-and-forth, and then—more often than not—markets looking green six months later, roughly in line with what markets do on average over time. He also notes one major outlier that needs to be excluded at the one-month mark because it overlaps with a separate shock.
Michael closes with two choices for traders in this kind of environment: either shorten your time horizon and try to trade the chaos (buying dips, selling rips), or zoom out, reduce the focus on headlines, and let the longer-term historical pattern play out.
Chapters
00:00 – Why this episode: math + history on conflict volatility
00:30 – Method: last ~12 Middle East U.S. conflict events since 1992
01:05 – One-week results: mixed, volatile chop, not a crash
02:27 – Why the first week feels random (up/down “crap shoot”)
02:55 – One-month results: often positive; exclude the COVID overlap event
03:45 – Six-month results: mostly green, closer to “normal” market behavior
04:53 – What Michael expects this time: week chop → month volatility → move on
05:10 – Walkthrough of recent examples on S&P 500 charts
06:30 – Pattern recap: short-term chop, longer-term markets move on
07:17 – Two choices: trade the chaos or zoom out and disengage
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By StocktwitsIn this episode of The Philosophical Quant, Michael walks through the math behind what normally happens in markets during U.S.-involved Middle Eastern conflicts. Using roughly the last 12 events going back to 1992, he compares what happened one week, one month, and six months after conflict involvement—then checks individual S&P 500 charts from recent examples.
The key pattern: short-term volatility with “not going anywhere” chop, followed by a month of continued back-and-forth, and then—more often than not—markets looking green six months later, roughly in line with what markets do on average over time. He also notes one major outlier that needs to be excluded at the one-month mark because it overlaps with a separate shock.
Michael closes with two choices for traders in this kind of environment: either shorten your time horizon and try to trade the chaos (buying dips, selling rips), or zoom out, reduce the focus on headlines, and let the longer-term historical pattern play out.
Chapters
00:00 – Why this episode: math + history on conflict volatility
00:30 – Method: last ~12 Middle East U.S. conflict events since 1992
01:05 – One-week results: mixed, volatile chop, not a crash
02:27 – Why the first week feels random (up/down “crap shoot”)
02:55 – One-month results: often positive; exclude the COVID overlap event
03:45 – Six-month results: mostly green, closer to “normal” market behavior
04:53 – What Michael expects this time: week chop → month volatility → move on
05:10 – Walkthrough of recent examples on S&P 500 charts
06:30 – Pattern recap: short-term chop, longer-term markets move on
07:17 – Two choices: trade the chaos or zoom out and disengage