We’re back after a few broken episodes, and the market has been insane: crude spiked, SPY tagged the 200-day overnight, and we’ve seen a huge flow into tech. In an environment where the market is going nowhere, mean reversion becomes one of the only ways to trade.

We break down a practical use of AI: instead of asking AI to “make you a strategy,” use it to answer a data question. After a wild gap-down then close-up day, we asked for a chart of every time the S&P 500 gapped down over 1% and closed up over 1% and what happened next. The big takeaway: this kind of action is usually bear market behavior, with mixed short-term outcomes but often positive follow-through.

Then we talk hedging tools: inverse ETFs like DXD and SARK, plus leveraged bear ETFs like SOXS, and why position sizing matters. We also go through a simple trade breakdown: red-to-green and green-to-red setups, including an oil short via USO and a risk-defined flip on HIMS. Lia shares bounce and reversal trades, including EWZ off the 50 moving average and VRT setups with clear levels, plus the psychology of navigating CPI risk and avoiding FOMO.

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Chapters

0:13 - Back to it, market is insane: commodities + trading the week

In this episode of The Philosophical Quant, Michael walks through the math behind what normally happens in markets during U.S.-involved Middle Eastern conflicts. Using roughly the last 12 events going back to 1992, he compares what happened one week, one month, and six months after conflict involvement—then checks individual S&P 500 charts from recent examples.

The key pattern: short-term volatility with “not going anywhere” chop, followed by a month of continued back-and-forth, and then—more often than not—markets looking green six months later, roughly in line with what markets do on average over time. He also notes one major outlier that needs to be excluded at the one-month mark because it overlaps with a separate shock.

Michael closes with two choices for traders in this kind of environment: either shorten your time horizon and try to trade the chaos (buying dips, selling rips), or zoom out, reduce the focus on headlines, and let the longer-term historical pattern play out.

Chapters

The market is in a spicy macro spot: war headlines, job reports Friday, inflation stress, and a Fed stuck in a tough situation with hot prices and expensive energy. With February and March often frustrating and choppy, this is an environment where going long gets flipped, going short gets flipped—so risk management and speed matter.

In this video, I break down how I’m restructuring into a portfolio I can actually sleep with, mixing in lower-volatility, lower-beta names while still looking for clean breakouts and flags. Charts covered: Nokia (NOK), Healthcare (XLV), Dow Inc. (DOW), Honeywell (HON), UPS (UPS), and Netflix (NFLX)—including specific breakout levels, stops, and targets.

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Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Chapters

In this special episode of The Philosophical Quant, Michael and Lia go deep on risk management—the difference between traders who make a killing with a low win rate and traders who get ruined with a high win rate.

They break down the concept of R (your risk unit), why risk-to-reward matters more than “being right,” and how a risk-first mindset filters out bad trades. Michael explains percentage-based risk (like risking 1% of an account) and why comparing every result to what you risked is the most important stat. Lia adds the psychological side: risk has to be personally tolerable—if the number stresses you out, reduce it.

They also cover why you can’t manage risk the same way across every strategy: counter-trend bounce trades need tight stops and quick results, while breakout trades need more room. The episode closes with a practical framework: define where price can go, define your stop first, and only take trades where you have at least 2R potential—otherwise, skip it and move on.

Chapters

#philosophicalquant

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

In this episode of The Philosophical Quant, Michael and Lia react to a wild week: “end of the world” vibes on Thursday, then back near all-time highs. The focus is software after a fear-driven selloff in IGV, with the narrative that AI could replace software companies. We break down why the bounce can still look weak, what the Nasdaq and key moving averages are signaling, and why the broader market may be rotating into areas like Dow Jones, small caps, staples, biotech, and IWM.

We break down current software stocks and discuss effective trading strategy applications. We also cover the nuances of RSI mean reversion and provide insightful investment analysis on specific stocks like PayPal stock, offering a comprehensive look at the current stock market dynamics.

Then we get practical with the Trading Technique of the Week: a mean reversion RSI approach—not buying just because something is oversold, but waiting for RSI to recover and using tight risk. Michael walks through why he chose ServiceNow using IGV holdings, while Lia shares her Figma trade built around demand levels, oversold RSI, valuation context, and a structured plan.

Finally, we jump into the Traders Clinic and answer audience tickers: MU, HIMS, and PayPal, focusing on parabolic risk, bear-flag behavior, exhaustion volume bounces, and the brutal reality of “bag holder supply.”

If you want us to review a chart, sector, theme, or psychology/risk management question, drop it in the comments—this show grows off your questions.

Chapters

00:01 – Welcome + viewers requested a software episode

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

In this episode of The Philosophical Quant, Michael and Lia break down a wild, news-and-earnings-driven tape: a Palantir earnings gap that gets rejected, why “public distribution” and Stage 4 risk matter, and what it means when most volume is overhead and traders are trapped.

Then we shift to the trading technique of the week: silver’s violent 25% drop, the psychology of parabolic moves, and why these become fast, tactical bounce plays rather than “hold and hope” trend trades. Lia shares how she prefers silver miners instead of pure silver because overnight gaps can wreck stops, and why she’d rather focus on cleaner charts like copper miners and defensive staples.

We finish with a trade breakdown Michael is watching: using anchored VWAP around the prior high and a potential short setup into the 95–96 zone — expressed through ZSL (ultra short silver) to manage overnight risk and avoid expensive options volatility.

Most importantly: drop your questions. Comment tickers, trading psychology issues, and setups you want us to cover, and we’ll build a weekly Q and A section around your feedback.

Chapters

0:12 – Ask us questions + feedback (Q and A segment request)

Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/