Markets in Focus

Questions about the U.S. dollar’s future as the world’s reserve currency aren’t new. And, yes, some central banks have slowly begun moving to dollar alternatives over the past several decades. Now the questions are back. Announced U.S. tariffs have turbocharged volatility, cast a shadow over economic growth, seen the dollar sell off, and spurred discussion about whether U.S. stocks can continue to surge ahead of their global counterparts. In this episode, Cougar Global Investment Portfolio Manager Jason Richey, CFA, and Antonina Tarassiouk, Fixed Income Analyst with Reams Asset Management, explore whether the dollar and the very idea of U.S. exceptionalism are secure – or are on the brink.

Although it’s too early to say that corporate earnings have fallen off a cliff, Matt Orton, CFA, argues that estimates need to be revised downwards — even if they may not need to fall that much. He and Joey Del Guercio consider alternatives to calling a bottom for equities, ask whether the United States is ceding its importance in investor portfolios, and discuss the future path of interest rates, which may be one of the widest disagreements in the market. They also look at shifts in supply chains encouraged by U.S. tariffs, asking whether they will be temporary or part of a longer-term trend.

Investor focus has shifted from fiscal policy to tariff effects, and the ensuing roller coaster of multi-standard-deviation market moves has left everyone wondering what comes next. Matt Orton, CFA, and Joey del Guercio discuss what’s happening with inflation expectations, whether the “Fed put” is still in effect, and which narratives can be seen in hard and soft economic data.

The U.S. Federal Reserve had difficulty meeting its interest rate targets in the two decades leading up to COVID — will a more proactive approach deliver better results? Matt Orton, CFA, is joined by Neil Aggarwal, Portfolio Manager and Head of Securitized Products at Reams Asset Management, and Eugenio Aleman, Chief Economist at Raymond James to discuss why 2022’s interest rate hikes were different, what the two main sources of household wealth are, and how changes in different asset values can influence consumer behavior.

A steady flow of concerning news from China has caused an extended downturn for emerging market stocks. Still, in his interview with Matt Orton, CFA, Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment Management, renowned EM investor Kevin T. Carter noted that he believes the long-term growth trends for these markets remain intact. A rising middle-class is eager to purchase the consumer goods that have long been available to residents of developed markets. The growing use of smartphones is also making access to consumer goods much easier. Carter believes India, in particular, could be the next major EM growth story.

A turbulent 2022 for all categories of stocks and a long-term cycle of outperformance from large caps have caused many investors to lose confidence in small caps. Yet the long-term outlook for small caps could be bright, according to Matt McGeary, CFA, a manager of small- and mid-cap strategies at Eagle Asset Management, and Tim Miller, CFA, a manager of small-cap portfolios at Scout Investments. They believe that a number of trends, such as onshoring, rising M&A activity, and expanding AI capabilities, could all help propel long-term growth for small-cap companies.

Now that the era of “growth at any price” has ended, newly converted value enthusiasts are questioning margins and the true return on their investments. Tariq Siddiqi, CFA, Senior Research Analyst at Eagle Asset Management, refuses to follow the crowd and keeps growth profiles at the forefront, pinpointing companies best positioned to capitalize on persistent secular trends. For Siddiqi, these opportunities include cybersecurity, the shift to cloud computing, the “Internet of Things" (IoT), and the growth of artificial intelligence.

Bonds are once again asserting their role as a store of value, portfolio diversifier, and income generator. James Camp, CFA, Managing Director of Fixed Income and Strategic Income at Eagle Asset Management, and Burton Mulford, CFA, Portfolio Manager overseeing all of Eagle's municipal strategies, delve into the likely course of monetary policy, its economic impact, and the implications for investors.

Inflation was the dominant story for the market in 2022, but not the only story. Beneath the surface, factors such as growth vs. value often shifted rapidly, temporarily altering the character of the market. Steve Singleton, Head of Portfolio and Investment Risk at Raymond James Investment Management, and Peter M. Schofield, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager for Chartwell Investment Partners’ Dividend Value Strategy, discuss whether 2023 could bring more of these inflection points and why – plus how investors can leverage factor investing to navigate market volatility.