Core PPI came in at +0.1% month over month while headline pushed to 4.0% year over year on pure energy pass-through, giving the Fed cover to hold; BlackRock upgraded US and EM equities to overweight into an active Hormuz blockade while three ships quietly transited the strait and Pakistan plus Turke

The One-Channel Print. March PPI printed 4.0% year over year, the highest since February 2023, but the real number was core at +0.1% monthly with services stuck at 3.8% for a fourth straight month. Energy did all the work. The tape read it dovish; the Fed read is narrower. A one-channel print is a license to hold, not a s

The US opened a naval blockade of the world's most important oil chokepoint and the dollar fell. Ten-year yields ended flat on a day crude gapped eight percent. The bank-earnings week begins into a tape that refused to reward a Goldman beat and refused to reward a hegemon's opening move.

The Reluctant Hegemon. The US opened a naval blockade of Hormuz and the dollar fell. Oil gapped eight percent and the 10-year yield finished flat. That joint tell, dollar soft and yields anchored on a day the Navy interdicted foreign shipping, is the shape of a hegemon premium leaking out in real time. The textbook safe-h

The Blockade. Twenty-one hours of talks in Islamabad collapsed. Hours later, Trump announced a US Naval blockade of Hormuz, interdicting every vessel that paid Iran's toll and threatening 50% tariffs on any country assisting Iran. Here is what the coverage misses: the blockade doesn't reopen the strait. It adds a

Twenty-one hours of face-to-face talks in Islamabad produced no deal. Hours later, President Trump announced an "effective immediately" US Naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to interdict every vessel that paid Iran's toll. US intelligence confirmed China is preparing to ship air def

The Largest Table in 47 Years. VP Vance, envoy Witkoff, and adviser Kushner sit across from the most senior Iranian delegation ever assembled for talks with the US. Iran's central bank governor is present, signaling sanctions relief is on the table. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and China are participating directly or indirectly. By ev

CPI came in at 3.3% headline but core held at 2.6%, below forecast. Rate cut odds surged to 85% for June and the S&P is flat on the year as if nothing happened. Then Iran hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, the very infrastructure designed to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint, while the Strait itself

Iran struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the Manifa/Khurais oil fields, eliminating 1.3 million barrels per day of combined throughput and production capacity. The pipeline was the contingency, built specifically to route oil around the Hormuz chokepoint to the Red Sea. Now both the primary

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