We take a look at an international central bank roundup. Three banks held their rates steady last week, more concerned about growth and demand destruction than inflation pressures. We agree, we'd like to see the same here.

Back home we dive into confidence data. Although the oil crisis has given both households and businesses a headache, things appear to be recovering. Albeit slowly.

We talk about some beefy topics most weeks... none more so than Kiwi beef exports and the surge in demand from the US. Just in time to save us from a drop-off in demand from China. Talk about good luck!

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The latest inflation data revealed some big, scary numbers. Inflation is running at 4.1%, the highest since 2023. Electricity, meat, and of course fuel prices were up sharply. However, domestic inflation finally eased, and the core measures of inflation that strip away volatile energy and food prices are a lot less frightening.

Kiwi households continue to uphold good savings habits. Although the ever soaring cost of living continues to be the biggest barrier to household savings.

Geopolitical uncertainty rages on and oil prices bounce around. Renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is driving business and consumer uncertainty here in Aotearoa. One thing is certain, though, and that's Jarrod's plans to convert his home into a cattle farm.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows that domestic trading activity remains weak, but cost pressures are still pushing higher. Kiwi businesses are reaching the end of their buffers and higher prices may just follow.

With positive net migration, we have more people arriving than leaving the country. But that's not true for Kiwi passport holders, most of whom are still heading off to Australia for better work opportunities.

One bright spot for our economy is tourism. The May 2026 data printed higher than last year - so there's hope for a good winter season (if we can get any snow). Aussies were the most likely to pop over for a visit.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here https://www.kiwibank.co.nz/business-banking/thrive-hq/kiwi-economics/.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The RBNZ has raised the interest rate to 2.5%. And we aren't happy. But we have a special guest on the podcast to help distract us from our foul mood. Mieneke Perniskie, Kiwibank Senior Dealer, Financial Markets joins us to discuss the implications for exchange rates.

The Kiwi dollar has taken a battering this year, off the back of the oil crisis. The Kiwi-Aussie exchange rate in particular has made our exports go on sale. Good news for exporters! And we can see it in Manufacturing PMI.

As the interest rates head to neutral (wherever that ends up landing), we speculate what the rest of the world is doing. And what that means for our rate differentials, and of course, currency.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Oil prices have returned to pre-war levels. The market expects the price of Dubai crude to remain between $60-70 US/barrel through to the end of the decade.

The rosier oil picture lowers medium term inflation risk and reinforces our call: hold the OCR and give the economy breathing room. Read more about our call in our mid-year outlook note.

We're cautiously optimistic that AI will enhance New Zealand's productivity, rather than replacing our jobs as Economists. We remain keenly interested in its impact on crowding out, regulatory lag, and competition.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr, Alexandra Turcu and Elliott Lowe. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We look back in time (one week) and so much has changed. We almost had a peace deal to celebrate. Oil prices dropped on hopes the deal would hold. As always, we speculate on the next move in markets, given the uncertain territory we have to navigate.

The first quarter of the year and the GDP results which printed higher than expected. A stronger starting point for the year means that the demand destruction we've been feeling this quarter might set us back without completely derailing the Kiwi economy.

Data points to the AI investment boom as a driver of growth domestically. We make many convincing arguments as to why we (economists) can't be replaced by AI (yet). None more salient than interpreting the future of oil distribution from the Middle East and its impact on where prices are going next.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

The Reserve Bank’s official cash rate is meant to help keep the Kiwi economy stable. We talk about the optimal cash rate and make some calls with Kiwibank Rates Trader, Graham Hughes.

International rates have an impact on the Kiwi through currency moves. Rates differentials between NZ and Aussie are no exception. A move higher in Kiwi rates at a time when the Aussies have finished hiking could drive moves the NZD/AUD cross.

On one point we agree with a hawkish Graham, rate hikes will have to be part of the RBNZ story in the future. The question is how soon? And how high should rates go?

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

We have some market mayhem to discuss, the US payroll data printed higher than expected, sending the S&P500 down 2% in a single day. We talk about the Fed and the RBNZ and much more.

The AI bubble is still propping up the US share markets, but a lot of funding is being syphoned out of other areas to feed the AI machine. When will we actually see the efficiencies and profits boom off the back of this investment?

Back home we have a widening gap in house prices between the North and South. We have the Central Otago and the Lakes districts where asking prices are more than 20% higher than a year ago. While the rest of the market tracks sideways.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

A big week of information to reflect on. The OCR and the Budget 2026 both out last week. Neither extremely surprising, but both giving us (and markets) plenty to digest.

We dive into the forecasting scenarios of the RBNZ and Treasury. One side is too pessimistic, the other too optimistic. We feel like Goldilocks trying to find the one that’s just right.

Uncertainty is still the word of the day – probably the year. An oil crisis that just doesn’t want to end, coming in an election year, and unpredictable weather events to top it all off.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.

Special guest alert! Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, PhD candidate at AUT and researcher at the NZ Policy Research Institute, joins us to talk about the tertiary sector.

Education uptake and economic conditions are counter-cyclical. When the economy is down, enrolment in education goes up, and vice versa. In the middle of an oil crisis and off the back of two years of recession, enrolment should be surging.

The fees-free policy, making first year university free, fell short. The policy didn’t address the immediate barriers to education, most of all: the higher cost of living.

Hosted by Jarrod Kerr and Alexandra Turcu. Follow our economic commentary & insights here.

Any views or information shared in this podcast, while given in good faith, aren't necessarily the view of Kiwibank.