Markets Update with TreasuryONE

By Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Risk management covers a range of responsibilities that must be managed well in order to secure and maintain the proper level of liquidity, control the organisations’ assets, bring exposures in line w... more

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FAQs about Markets Update with TreasuryONE:

How many episodes does Markets Update with TreasuryONE have?

The podcast currently has 168 episodes available.

Markets Update with TreasuryONE episodes:

July 19, 2023 SA core inflation hindered by a weaker rand, infrastructure issues, and high electricity tariffs
It’s already been a busy week with an interest rate announcement still to come as well. Credit ratings agency, Fitch has fired a warning shot calling on the South African government to keep its debt to GDP ratio in check, or face a further downgrade into junk territory. Failing state owned enterprises and municipalities have drained the fiscus, non more so than Eskom, which, by the way, is possibly coming into more troubles. It’s former Chief Operating Officer, Jan Oberholzer will officially exit Eskom at the end of the month and the Minister of Energy has expressed doubts about Koeberg’s refurbishment timeline. Unit one is scheduled to return to service this July with Unit two being taken out in September. If this process overlaps leaving both units out
of commission, it will wipe out electricity generation equal to one stage of loadshedding.
With all these problems, it’s not surprising that capital is fleeing our shores. Ninety One, South Africa’s biggest asset manager has lost nearly R110 billion in assets under management in the past three months - a staggering amount.
PLEASE NOTE: Following Wednesday morning’s release of June’s inflation figures, ETM now expects the SARB to leave the repo rate unchanged at Thursday’s announcement. Annual CPI declined from 6,3% in May to 5,4% in June. Core inflation ( CPI excluding food and fuel) also dropped slightly to 5% last month. Inflation is expected to drop further in July which could provide some breathing room for the SARB.
#financialmarkets #financialnews #currencynews #currencymarket
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6min
July 12, 2023 FED minutes take centre stage
The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting took centre stage last week---almost all the Fed officials voted to pause in June to buy time to assess the impact of its monetary tightening so far---which is a cumulative 500 basis points to date….and the cracks from the tighter monetary conditions are starting to show up here and there…the non-farm payroll data, published on Friday, while still reflecting was softer than expected. But not sufficiently so to stop the Fed’s plans to bump rates by a further 25 basis points before the end of the year---this was also revealed in the
minutes and is in line with market expectations.
This may force other central banks to follow suit—including the SARB, which by the way, seemingly still has some way to go to pull inflation back within the target band. Meanwhile, in a recent radio interview, governor Lesetja Kganyago said inflation has turned a corner and he expects CPI to come in below 6% soon. At the same time, the Bureau for Economic Research
survey last week, showed inflation is expected to remain stubbornly high for the rest of the year going into 2024.
Either way, the outlook for the second half of 2023 is difficult to predict with a number of countervailing forces. You have the SARB which is likely to follow any rate hike put out by the Fed while risk aversion and lower commodity prices will weigh on the economy. As recessionary conditions take hold abroad, exports will come under pressure while a domestic recession will dampen demand for imports. It could pile pressure on the Rand---which already has a lack of resilience to external shocks.
#currencynews #currencymarket #financialmarkets #financialnews
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5min
July 05, 2023 SA power crisis continues to take its toll on the economy
Last week we watched Russia; this week it’s France, where nightly riots and looting events have popped up in some places - including Paris - following the death of a teenager at a roadblock.
Although events may be losing steam, fears remain that similar flare-ups could spread. It is reflective of how flammable some parts have become due social inequality, income disparities and xenophobic trends in some parts of the world.
Back in South Africa, President Ramaphosa’s Phala- Phala hangover continues. The recent decision by the office of the acting Public Protector to clear the Buffalo of all wrongdoing, saying most of the allegations were based on hearsay.
In its annual report, the SARB has expressed concern about the increasing commercial bank exposure to government debt as the state’s finances continues to deteriorate as the power crisis continues to take its toll on the economy. It should come as a warning to foreign investors to price
their positions accordingly and being aware that not all risks are instantly visible but may be tied to sinking State-owned entities and municipalities struggling to stay afloat.
Speaking of central banks, the gathering of central bank chiefs at the ECB’s annual conference in Portugal were closely monitored for any signals on monetary policy. Both the ECB and Fed indicated that they were approaching their terminal rates, the Bank of England hinted at more hikes to come
while the Bank of Japan gave no reason to believe its loose monetary policy is going to change anytime soon.
#marketsupdate #currencynews #financialmarkets #currencymarket
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6min
June 27, 2023 Dust has settled in Moscow - what’s going to happen next....?
The dust has now settled in Moscow and now everyone is wondering what’s going to happen next. Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on the capital city –in what he says was to protect the Wagner group. The events of the past weekend followed months of tension between Prigozhin and Russia’s military leaders who have been pushing for control over the mercenary group. But the Wagner leader was never going to give up his cash cow without a fight.
Any case…the one thing that we can take with some degree of certainty from these developments is that it cracked the veneer of Putin’s all-powerful authoritarian persona. The President looked weak as army tanks simply rolled onto Moscow—and the quick change in sentiment does not align with his image as an iron-fisted leader.
Now the world is waiting on Putin’s next move…
Will will he intensify the Ukraine war to win back his power stance or is this the chance Ukraine and his allies have been waiting for to cut the offensive off at its knees? The other, less likely scenario—is that this may have given Putin’s domestic political opponents an opportunity to boot him from power. We’ll just have to wait and see how the former KGB will react to being pushed into a corner.
Markets seemed fairly unfazed by the events. It did bump oil prices which started on a strong foot this week and we saw a rally in the price of gold as well.
#FinancialMarkets #FinancialNews #CurrencyMarkets #currencynews
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6min
June 21, 2023 The Rand is having a good June
The Rand is having a good June—managing to reverse May’s losses and even made back a little more ground. It has now reached a point where in the absence of a fresh catalyst, the ZAR faces a tough task punching through the R18-20 to the Dollar mark..it could enjoy a more consolidative trading session this week—barring any corrections in the US Dollar.
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3min
May 25, 2023 MPC raises repo rate 50 bps to 8.25%, highest level since 2009
#SARB #IntererestRate #Inflation
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4min
May 22, 2023 The Rand recorded its weakest closing levels against the US Dollar on Friday
The Rand recorded its weakest closing levels against the US Dollar on Friday - as South Africa’s risk profile continues to deteriorate. But the ongoing US debt ceiling discussions have put the greenback on the defensive - however a breakthrough is expected soon, which is expected to settle the markets somewhat and provide a boost for a broader risk appetite. The Rand is expected to take direction from Thursday’s MPC announcement. If the central bank’s response is considered too soft, the Rand could be in for another sell-off - whereas markets may be more welcoming to a bold move.

#FinancialMarkets #CurrencyUpdate #CentralBanks #Inflation #InterestRates
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5min
May 16, 2023 Andre Cilliers on Kaya Biz FM
Andre Cilliers, director and currency strategist at TreasuryONE gives insight on the performance of the rand

#KayaBizzFM #TreasuryONE #AndreCilliers #ZAR #CurrencyMarkets
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12min
May 15, 2023 The Dedollarisation Debate
A thought-provoking discussion about the concept of dedollarisation. In this episode, we explore the potential signs of a shifting global landscape away from the dominance of the US dollar and the implications it may have on international trade, currencies, and economic stability.
#Dedollarisation #FinancialMarkets #GlobalEconomy #TreasuryONE #ETMAnalytics
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13min
May 15, 2023 Rand calmer start to the week
After the vast moves from last week, we have seen that the Rand has started to stabilize a little. The Rand briefly broke below R19.00 against the US dollar but has traded sideways between R19.03 to R19.12 for most of the day. We did see the Rand move stronger in the Asian trade, and one can only hope that a few days of no new headlines could help the Rand break below the R19.00 level. The US dollar also firmed up in Asian trade, which allowed the Rand to gain more on the crosses, with the Euro and Pound back below the R21.00 and R24.00 mark, respectively. The data calendar is relatively thin, and this will give renewed focus to news headlines. As we have seen, headlines are paramount to Rand's moves. Each headline poses a two-way risk for the Rand.
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2min

FAQs about Markets Update with TreasuryONE:

How many episodes does Markets Update with TreasuryONE have?

The podcast currently has 168 episodes available.