Inflation continues to move in the wrong direction, complicating the Federal Reserve's September meeting decision despite market expectations for an interest rate cut. The latest core PCE data—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—rose to 2.9% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, signaling persistent price pressures throughout the economy.
Breaking down the numbers reveals concerning trends beneath the surface. While headline PCE increased a modest 0.2% month-over-month as expected, the "super core" inflation measure (excluding both housing and energy) jumped dramatically to 3.3% annually, which is almost double June's rate. This acceleration in underlying inflation appears concentrated in the service sector, even as goods prices have shown some moderation.
The disconnect between economic data and market sentiment creates a fascinating dynamic heading into the FOMC's September meeting. Despite today's inflation warning signs, financial markets are still pricing in nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut. This puts the Federal Reserve in a precarious position. How do they address potential concerns in the labor market without reigniting inflation that clearly hasn't been fully tamed?
The Fed must now walk an incredibly fine line, potentially easing monetary policy while simultaneously managing inflation expectations. As we head into Labor Day weekend, this balancing act represents one of the most significant challenges facing policymakers in the current economic cycle. What approach do you think the Fed should take?
https://youtu.be/sAKB-NV8WZA
Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...