Measured

A country of under three million people, 186,774 public contract awards and 21.89 billion euros over two years. Then the figure that decides whether it is worth bidding at all: three quarters of those contracts are under 25,000 euros, and together they carry seven per cent of the money.

In this episode:

186,774 new contract awards worth 21.89 billion euros across 2024 and 2025, won by 17,195 distinct suppliers from 3,319 contracting authorities.

Contracts between 5,000 and 25,000 euros are 72.9 per cent of all awards and 6.9 per cent of the value. Contracts between 1 million and 50 million are 1.7 per cent of awards and 55.4 per cent of the value.

The buyer side is roughly four times more concentrated than the supplier side, which makes entry an account question before it is a pricing question.

Of the suppliers that won something in 2025, 36 per cent had not won in 2024. Suppliers based outside Lithuania take 4.3 per cent of the value and 1.8 per cent of the contracts.

Taken as published the same two years read as 51.58 billion euros. The earlier episode covers why, and what it does to every concentration figure.

For consultants, law firms, investment promotion agencies and companies that bid for public contracts in Lithuania and the Baltic region.

The underlying data is published by the State Data Agency and originates from the Public Procurement Office, licensed CC BY 4.0, cleaned, aggregated and classified by Ernex UAB. Neither body has reviewed or endorsed the analysis. The figures are an analysis, not an official statistic.

Full edition: Lithuania Public Procurement Market Report 2026, edition ERX-LTPP-2026-E1, at erne-x.com

Free extract: erne-x.com

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is the standard measure of how concentrated a market is. Applied to published public procurement data without cleaning it first, it gives an answer that is wrong by a factor of nearly three.

In this episode:

Amendments to contracts already awarded carry 57.6 per cent of the published value in the Lithuanian contract data for 2024 and 2025.

Separating them moves the concentration index from 106.9 to 38.3, while the number of distinct winners barely moves, because an amendment goes to the firm that already holds the contract.

Across sectors the index runs from 118 to 868, and the most concentrated sector is cleaning and security, not IT and not construction.

Structurally open is not the same as competitive. The procurement office puts the single bid rate in the forties.

For consultants, law firms, investment promotion agencies and companies that bid for public contracts in Lithuania and the Baltic region.

The underlying data is published by the State Data Agency and originates from the Public Procurement Office, licensed CC BY 4.0, cleaned, aggregated and classified by Ernex UAB. Neither body has reviewed or endorsed the analysis. The figures are an analysis, not an official statistic.

Full edition: Lithuania Public Procurement Market Report 2026, edition ERX-LTPP-2026-E1, at erne-x.com

Free extract: erne-x.com