Mentally Unscripted

How Confirmation Bias and COVID Divided the World
Paul and Scott explain how confirmation bias and our need to be correct have divided the world over COVID.

Resources
The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York

DarkHorse Podcast (Brett Weinstein & Heather Heying has done many COVID related podcasts)

Tom Woods COVID Charts Quiz

Excess Deaths (from CDC)

Ivermectin & Aducanumab: Do They Work?

Interview with George Silverman

Confirmation Bias

Inertia (note: the equal and opposite reaction is Newton's third law of motion)

Incentives Matter

Probabilistic Thinking

Appeal to Authority

Sunk Cost Fallacy

False Dichotomy

Illusion of Control

Inversion

Top Takeaways
1.    Confirmation bias is our tendency to seek, interpret, and remember information that confirms our preexisting beliefs.

2.    Confirmation bias helps us avoid cognitive dissonance and gives us the comfort of thinking our beliefs are correct.

3.    Not understanding our belief systems about COVID and the confirmation bias that's powering those systems is a reason why COVID has become such a divisive issue.

4.    Understand that we all have biases, and we don't need to take absolute positions. Be open to the idea that you could be wrong.

Timestamps
[9:28] Today's Topic is Confirmation Bias and COVID.

[13:37] What is confirmation bias

[15:05] How confirmation bias works

[17:59] The Benefits of confirmation bias

[22:03] The communication aspect of confirmation bias

[25:14] The strength of your beliefs matter

[27:33] Belief systems in place in early 2020 at the start of COVID

[33:07] Problem of limited and too much information

[38:24] Is the government creating perverse incentives?

[41:05] Science vs. Non-Science

[47:09] Is it easier to ignore evidence and listen to authority?

[56:58] Tactics for dealing with confirmation bias.

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Scott
Paul

We’ve all battled procrastination at some point. Hell, you may be procrastinating by reading this right now (Don’t blame us. We didn’t force you to read this.) Indeed, for some of us, procrastination keeps us from achieving our goals.

The good news is that you can overcome it.

You can look procrastination in the eye and say, “No thanks, old friend. I’m done with you.” 

And Robert, aka Words & Minds, is the person to help you.

Paul and Scott welcome Robert to Mentally Unscripted in episode 28. They spend an hour talking about their experiences with procrastination and how they deal with it. 

Robert discusses many topics, including:

1. His experience with procrastination,
2. Mistakes he made in trying to tackle it,
3. The major impact procrastination has on people, and
4. His free procrastination e-book.

If procrastination is holding you back, this is the episode for you.

Connect with Robert and get a copy of his free e-book on Twitter.

Don’t forget, if you like this episode, tell your friends. And go to Apple Podcasts and leave us a 5-star rating and review.

We appreciate you helping us get the word out!
Engage with your Apollonian hosts on Twitter.

Scott

Paul

Joey, the Prypreneur, is a former web developer who now teaches people how to develop better habits and improve their performance.

Paul and Scott welcome Joey to Mentally Unscripted in this episode. They have a great conversation covering a range of topics including the following:

• Scientific self-improvement,
• Imposter syndrome,
• Marketing,
• Authority and credibility,
• Core fundamentals,
• Improving performance,
• Flow states, and
• How to Win Friends and Influence People.

Paul and Scott have known and followed Joey for some time. So, tune in for a lot of inciteful information.

Connect with Joey on Twitter.

Don’t forget, if you like this episode, tell your friends. And go to Apple Podcasts and leave us a 5-star rating and review. 

We appreciate you helping us get the word out!

Engage with us on Twitter. 

Scott

Paul

The Great Reset is still here. There’s more evidence that political, business, and religious leaders are moving forward with their plan to bring about a global utopia. But does that evidence prove what you think it proves? Or is your brain tricking you into believing a conspiracy theory?

In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott revisit the Great Reset.

They start off by talking about apophenia, or false pattern recognition. Apophenia is our tendency to see patterns in random data that don’t exist. And it’s one reason why we dream up and believe in conspiracy theories.

Then they dive into the Great Reset. Believers in the Great Reset point to Blackrock and censorship as two bits of evidence that the conspiracy is real.

Paul and Scott use false pattern recognition to analyze that evidence.

First up is Blackrock. Blackrock is buying up residential real estate in the U.S. Is that a sign that we're moving towards a world where "you'll own nothing, and you'll be happy?" Or is it something else?

Next up is censorship. Is big tech working on behalf of the government to censor dissent? And is that another step toward a world where the elites protect us from harmful ideas? Or is big tech cozying up to the government to protect its market dominance?

The first step is to identify what patterns lead us to believe that those in power are marching toward The Great Reset. Then, we must test the evidence. And ask ourselves the tricky question: is what we're seeing and believing real?

Links:

• How False Patterns Cause You to Make Bad Decisions
• BlackRock owns America's homes — and a whole lot else
• The Inevitable Coronavirus Censorship Crisis is Here
• Censorship Kills
• Court Documents Show U.S. Government Directed Big Tech to Censor Public

Don’t forget, if you like this episode, tell your friends. And go to Apple Podcasts and leave us a 5-star rating and review. 

We appreciate you helping us get the word out!

Engage with us on Twitter. 

Scott - @StrengthReason
Paul - @thoughtmachina

Photo by eberhard grossgasteiger from Pexels

Wisdom and Strategy tweets about purpose and achieving your goals. He's also an author working on his first book.

Paul and Scott welcome Wisdom and Strategy in this episode of Mentally Unscripted. They have a great conversation about Twitter and imposter syndrome. The three also compare their strategies for content creation.

Tune in for a great conversation. Don't forget to check out Wisdom and Strategy on Twitter and Linktree. And be on the lookout for his first book about conquering your career, releasing soon.

George Silverman is a psychologist, marketer, author, and entrepreneur. He's busy working on his newest innovation: MindSkills.

"We have repealed geography . . . Now you can be stupid in two places instead of one."

- George Silverman

George joins Paul and Scott on episode 24 of Mentally Unscripted. In this episode, our co-hosts sit speechless as George talks about his history - from inventing the telephone focus group to developing MindSkills. George explains what it is to "go meta" and how MindSkills improves upon the idea of mental models.

George brings the house in this episode of Mentally Unscripted. He imparts far more wisdom than we can put in the show notes. So download this episode and sit back. You're in store for an excellent time.

And follow him on Twitter. Links below.

• Follow George on Twitter.
• Go Meta or Go Home - George’s article on Medium about the granddaddy of all MindSkills -- going meta.
• George’s Medium page.
• MindSkills Playbook - George's Roam page where he's documenting MindSkills.

Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador. And it's ok to talk about COVID's possible lab-based origin.

The world is changing. And Paul and Scott are helping you navigate the absurdity.

In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott talk about the COVID Wuhan lab theory.

That's right. Saying COVID came from a lab in Wuhan won't get you labeled a conspiracy theorist anymore. And, even better, it won't get you kicked off social media. It's mainstream now. And our hosts have some fun with it.

Then they move on to Bitcoin's take over of the world economy. And it starts in El Salvador. Ok, maybe not. Does it matter that El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender? Listen to this episode to find out.

Articles discussed:

• Bitcoin's El Salvador Option | Mises Wire
• El Salvador Is Not the Birthplace of Bitcoin’s Future
• Kudzu: The Invasive Vine that Ate the South

Critical thinking concepts & mental models discussed:

• Probabilistic Thinking
• Occam’s Razor
• Gaslighting
• Incentives
• Higher Order Problems
• Authority/Credibility
• Accountability

Photo by David McBee from Pexels

Paul and Scott are back with more headlines. It's a fun and informative look at a few of the big topics in the news. This time they tackle migration, the federal voting law, and take a quick whack at inflation.

In these headline episodes of Mentally Unscripted, you'll learn how to read mainstream news stories with a critical eye. You'll see how Paul and Scott identify biases and fallacies in the articles. You'll also learn to identify missing information. And you'll see how they apply mental models in evaluating the articles.

Listen to this episode and start having intelligent, productive conversations with your friends, family, neighbors, and enemies. 

Articles discussed:

• Migration
  • Harris, in Guatemala, tells potential migrants they will be turned back: 'Do not come'
  • Biden admin policies 'incentivize' migrants to cross border: Vitiello
• Voting
  • Hasan: Manchin, Sinema 'aiding and abetting' GOP's war on democracy
  • Manchin Defends Opposition to Dem Voting-Rights Legislation
  • Manchin to vote against bill federalizing elections, dealing major blow to Democrats
• Inflation
  • Shrinking packages are one way companies are concealing higher prices

Critical thinking concepts & mental models discussed:

• First principles
• Moral hazard
• Reversibility
• Hanlon’s razor
• Fundamental attribution error
• Cost/benefit analysis
• Notice
• Credibility
• Compromise vs. winner-takes-all

Join Paul and Scott as they explore current headlines. In this episode, they pick some interesting headlines and discuss the selected articles. In the process, they shine the all-seeing eye of critical thinking on the content.

In these headline episodes of Mentally Unscripted, you'll learn how to read mainstream news stories with a critical eye. You'll see how Paul and Scott identify biases and fallacies in the articles. You'll also learn to identify missing information. And you'll see how they apply mental models in evaluating the articles.

So strap in and enjoy. It's a fun ride.

Articles discussed:
- Half of US states have fully vaccinated at least 50% of adults. We need to keep going to prevent future outbreaks, official says
- Bitcoin Volatility Put Weekend Traders on Stomach-Churning Ride
- China Mines More Bitcoin Than Anywhere Else. The Government Wants That to Stop
- The Wuhan Lab and Gain-of-Function Disagreement

Mental Models discussed:
- Correlation Does Not Imply Causation
- Cost / Benefit
- Illusion of Control
- Root Cause Analysis
- Identify Assumptions
- Base Rates
- Bayesian Updating
- Probabilistic Thinking

Policing has been a hot topic since the summer of 2020. As one would expect, the enforcement arm of the state has the potential to overstep its bounds. Any organization with a monopoly on the legal use of force can inflict an incredible amount of misery on society. From stealing private property to the use of lethal force, often without accountability or consequence. So, the critical question is: how do we protect the people from the police? Do we reform the police when it goes astray, or do we take more drastic measures?

In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott begin to explore these questions.

They cover a lot of ground. That ground includes why we have police and the desired outcome of policing. They also discuss why defunding or abolishing the police is not the answer. And they explain some alternatives to our current model.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

- Viral Video of Cops Harassing Kids Riding Bikes Without a License Reveals the Root of America's Policing Problem
- Don't Abolish the Police – End Their Monopoly
- A randomized control trial evaluating the effects of police body-worn cameras

Concepts mentioned in this episode:
- First-principles
- Incentives matter
- Chesterton's fence
- False consensus effect
- The power of saying, "I don't know"
- Unintended consequences
- What is the end goal?
- Legitimacy/brute force dynamic
- 80/20 rule

Image by StockSnap from Pixabay