Mentally Unscripted

The Great Reset is still here. There’s more evidence that political, business, and religious leaders are moving forward with their plan to bring about a global utopia. But does that evidence prove what you think it proves? Or is your brain tricking you into believing a conspiracy theory?

In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott revisit the Great Reset.

They start off by talking about apophenia, or false pattern recognition. Apophenia is our tendency to see patterns in random data that don’t exist. And it’s one reason why we dream up and believe in conspiracy theories.

Then they dive into the Great Reset. Believers in the Great Reset point to Blackrock and censorship as two bits of evidence that the conspiracy is real.

Paul and Scott use false pattern recognition to analyze that evidence.

First up is Blackrock. Blackrock is buying up residential real estate in the U.S. Is that a sign that we're moving towards a world where "you'll own nothing, and you'll be happy?" Or is it something else?

Next up is censorship. Is big tech working on behalf of the government to censor dissent? And is that another step toward a world where the elites protect us from harmful ideas? Or is big tech cozying up to the government to protect its market dominance?

The first step is to identify what patterns lead us to believe that those in power are marching toward The Great Reset. Then, we must test the evidence. And ask ourselves the tricky question: is what we're seeing and believing real?

Links:

• How False Patterns Cause You to Make Bad Decisions
• BlackRock owns America's homes — and a whole lot else
• The Inevitable Coronavirus Censorship Crisis is Here
• Censorship Kills
• Court Documents Show U.S. Government Directed Big Tech to Censor Public

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Engage with us on Twitter. 

Scott - @StrengthReason
Paul - @thoughtmachina

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Wisdom and Strategy tweets about purpose and achieving your goals. He's also an author working on his first book.

Paul and Scott welcome Wisdom and Strategy in this episode of Mentally Unscripted. They have a great conversation about Twitter and imposter syndrome. The three also compare their strategies for content creation.

Tune in for a great conversation. Don't forget to check out Wisdom and Strategy on Twitter and Linktree. And be on the lookout for his first book about conquering your career, releasing soon.

George Silverman is a psychologist, marketer, author, and entrepreneur. He's busy working on his newest innovation: MindSkills.

"We have repealed geography . . . Now you can be stupid in two places instead of one."

- George Silverman

George joins Paul and Scott on episode 24 of Mentally Unscripted. In this episode, our co-hosts sit speechless as George talks about his history - from inventing the telephone focus group to developing MindSkills. George explains what it is to "go meta" and how MindSkills improves upon the idea of mental models.

George brings the house in this episode of Mentally Unscripted. He imparts far more wisdom than we can put in the show notes. So download this episode and sit back. You're in store for an excellent time.

And follow him on Twitter. Links below.

• Follow George on Twitter.
• Go Meta or Go Home - George’s article on Medium about the granddaddy of all MindSkills -- going meta.
• George’s Medium page.
• MindSkills Playbook - George's Roam page where he's documenting MindSkills.

Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador. And it's ok to talk about COVID's possible lab-based origin.

The world is changing. And Paul and Scott are helping you navigate the absurdity.

In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott talk about the COVID Wuhan lab theory.

That's right. Saying COVID came from a lab in Wuhan won't get you labeled a conspiracy theorist anymore. And, even better, it won't get you kicked off social media. It's mainstream now. And our hosts have some fun with it.

Then they move on to Bitcoin's take over of the world economy. And it starts in El Salvador. Ok, maybe not. Does it matter that El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender? Listen to this episode to find out.

Articles discussed:

• Bitcoin's El Salvador Option | Mises Wire
• El Salvador Is Not the Birthplace of Bitcoin’s Future
• Kudzu: The Invasive Vine that Ate the South

Critical thinking concepts & mental models discussed:

• Probabilistic Thinking
• Occam’s Razor
• Gaslighting
• Incentives
• Higher Order Problems
• Authority/Credibility
• Accountability

Photo by David McBee from Pexels

Paul and Scott are back with more headlines. It's a fun and informative look at a few of the big topics in the news. This time they tackle migration, the federal voting law, and take a quick whack at inflation.

In these headline episodes of Mentally Unscripted, you'll learn how to read mainstream news stories with a critical eye. You'll see how Paul and Scott identify biases and fallacies in the articles. You'll also learn to identify missing information. And you'll see how they apply mental models in evaluating the articles.

Listen to this episode and start having intelligent, productive conversations with your friends, family, neighbors, and enemies. 

Articles discussed:

• Migration
  • Harris, in Guatemala, tells potential migrants they will be turned back: 'Do not come'
  • Biden admin policies 'incentivize' migrants to cross border: Vitiello
• Voting
  • Hasan: Manchin, Sinema 'aiding and abetting' GOP's war on democracy
  • Manchin Defends Opposition to Dem Voting-Rights Legislation
  • Manchin to vote against bill federalizing elections, dealing major blow to Democrats
• Inflation
  • Shrinking packages are one way companies are concealing higher prices

Critical thinking concepts & mental models discussed:

• First principles
• Moral hazard
• Reversibility
• Hanlon’s razor
• Fundamental attribution error
• Cost/benefit analysis
• Notice
• Credibility
• Compromise vs. winner-takes-all

Join Paul and Scott as they explore current headlines. In this episode, they pick some interesting headlines and discuss the selected articles. In the process, they shine the all-seeing eye of critical thinking on the content.

In these headline episodes of Mentally Unscripted, you'll learn how to read mainstream news stories with a critical eye. You'll see how Paul and Scott identify biases and fallacies in the articles. You'll also learn to identify missing information. And you'll see how they apply mental models in evaluating the articles.

So strap in and enjoy. It's a fun ride.

Articles discussed:
- Half of US states have fully vaccinated at least 50% of adults. We need to keep going to prevent future outbreaks, official says
- Bitcoin Volatility Put Weekend Traders on Stomach-Churning Ride
- China Mines More Bitcoin Than Anywhere Else. The Government Wants That to Stop
- The Wuhan Lab and Gain-of-Function Disagreement

Mental Models discussed:
- Correlation Does Not Imply Causation
- Cost / Benefit
- Illusion of Control
- Root Cause Analysis
- Identify Assumptions
- Base Rates
- Bayesian Updating
- Probabilistic Thinking

Policing has been a hot topic since the summer of 2020. As one would expect, the enforcement arm of the state has the potential to overstep its bounds. Any organization with a monopoly on the legal use of force can inflict an incredible amount of misery on society. From stealing private property to the use of lethal force, often without accountability or consequence. So, the critical question is: how do we protect the people from the police? Do we reform the police when it goes astray, or do we take more drastic measures?

In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott begin to explore these questions.

They cover a lot of ground. That ground includes why we have police and the desired outcome of policing. They also discuss why defunding or abolishing the police is not the answer. And they explain some alternatives to our current model.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

- Viral Video of Cops Harassing Kids Riding Bikes Without a License Reveals the Root of America's Policing Problem
- Don't Abolish the Police – End Their Monopoly
- A randomized control trial evaluating the effects of police body-worn cameras

Concepts mentioned in this episode:
- First-principles
- Incentives matter
- Chesterton's fence
- False consensus effect
- The power of saying, "I don't know"
- Unintended consequences
- What is the end goal?
- Legitimacy/brute force dynamic
- 80/20 rule

Image by StockSnap from Pixabay

You've seen the headlines. Bitcoin is gaining in value, and the sky's the limit. Of course, you're wondering if you need to jump onto the gravy train before it's too late. But you're a logical, thinking person. You've wondered why anyone would pay money for something that doesn't exist? Not in a physical sense, anyway. And what's the likely future for bitcoin? Will it keep its value? What are the risks facing bitcoin and the crypto market?

Those are all excellent questions. And they're questions a rational person should ask in our new financial landscape.

U.S. government spending is through the roof. MMT is growing in popularity. And the political strategy of the moment is buying votes in exchange for promises of free stuff. Add those together, and you get unabated government spending.

Despite protestations from the government, the Fed, and the deficits don't matter crowd, inflation is real. And it's happening right now.

You may be looking at bitcoin as an inflation hedge. But the idea of paying money for a bunch of electronic 1's and 0's is unsettling. After all, you have to save for your kids' exorbitant college tuition. So, what do you do? The answer is that you start by building a foundation of knowledge built on rationality and not hype.

In Mentally Unscripted's second bitcoin episode, Paul and Scott discuss where Bitcoin gets its value. Then they move on to discuss the risks facing bitcoin and the crypto market.

Paul and Scott start by talking about subjective value. Then they discuss extrinsic vs. intrinsic value. For risks, they talk about the adoption of bitcoin and the likelihood of future government regulation.

Resources mentioned in this episode:

Positive feedback loop
Fear of missing out
Grisham's law - good money pushes out good money
Friction
Security - Freedom tradeoff
History of the income tax

Image by MichaelWuensch from Pixabay

The Fed says there's low inflation. The data seems to support that point. But try telling that to anyone who's been to the grocery store in the past week. So, what gives? Is the Fed lying about inflation?

In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott discuss the basics of inflation. And they assure you that you're not crazy. There's a reason why the government is telling you there's no inflation. But your grocery store bill says there is.

They begin by discussing the definition of inflation and the various forms inflation can take. Then they discuss the causes of inflation. And Scott explains why it's not those greedy capitalists.

Next, they talk about asset price inflation vs. consumer price inflation. And they explain how government money printing contributes to the growing wealth disparity. And for a little extra fun, they discuss the difference between capitalism and cronyism. True to form, Scott doesn't miss an opportunity to rant about the need to limit government power.

Next up is a discussion of transitory inflation and who inflation hurts the most. Paul and Scott close the episode with a criticism of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Note: Scott says in this episode that inflation will exist in a free-market economy. This is an example of his mouth moving faster than his brain. While there may be inflation in a free market, deflation is more likely.

- The Ultimate Guide to Inflation, by Lyn Alden
- There's another side to the story. Look at the bigger picture.
- Define your terms. Beware of shifting definitions and moving the goalposts.
- Complex systems
- Base rates
- The map is not the territory
- The Cantillon effect (this is a more critical take in the Cantillon Effect)

Image by Foto-Rabe from Pixabay

Can bitcoin free us from government overreach? Can it restore the financial stability we've been losing since the creation of the [[https://www.federalreserve.gov/][Fed]], on December 23, 1913?

Even if you've been living in a cave for the last five years, you've heard of bitcoin. But most of us only know about it from the hype surrounding this new "digital currency." It's true that bitcoin offers an exciting and risky investment opportunity. 

But, there's another side to it.

In 2008, during the worldwide financial crisis, [[https://nakamoto.com/satoshi-nakamoto/][Satoshi Nakamoto]] published a famous white paper, [[https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf][Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System]]. In it, he provided the technical details for a new peer-to-peer cash system. 

But his intent wasn't to create a new way for college students to pay for pizza on the Internet. Nakamoto had an ideological motivation.

Nakamoto saw the financial crisis as evidence that the current financial system had problems. Powerful governments, banks, and other institutions controlled it. And the average person had no choice but to trust those in control to do what's best for everyone else.

The following quote from Nakamoto sums it up best:

The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that's required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts. - Satoshi Nakamoto

In the financial crisis, Nakamoto saw that we can't trust the politicians and financiers.

A philosophy of trust forms the foundation of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. It's freedom, transparency, and credibility that creates that trust.

It's the foundation of trust that has many believing that bitcoin can replace the Fed. Or at least offer a competing system. One that gives us the ability to insulate ourselves from the Fed's poor monetary policies.

The current financial system is an opaque, closed system that benefits insiders. At the same time, it's making the lower and middle classes more dependent on the government. Nakamoto's vision of bitcoin is that of an open system beneficial to all.

In this episode of Mentally Unscripted, Paul and Scott start a discussion of bitcoin. They do so by looking at the philosophy of liberty underpinning its creation. They discuss whether we need bitcoin, the conditions necessary for its widespread adoption, and the risks to adopting it.

This episode only scratches the surface of the bitcoin discussion. It's an excellent place to start learning about what Paul and Scott think about bitcoin. You'll hear about their attitude toward government monetary policy. And the value and necessity for liberty in our lives.

This episode won't be the last about bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Paul and Scott guarantee more will follow soon.

Image by VIN JD from Pixabay