Mere Mortals Conversations

The mindset of a poker pro can now be applied outside of a narrow game.

In Episode #517 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: Annie Duke’s 'Thinking In Bets' book and how the poker mindset can reshape everyday decision-making, why focusing on process over outcomes matters,  how using AI as a sounding board revealed hidden risk-taking in my own finances, testing assumptions in small experiments before going all-in, how arbitrage opportunities appear with prediction markets and why clarity on desired outcomes should drive bet-sizing.

No support for this week so no beanie either. Also my laptop died suddenly hence the rather curt cut off at the end. Luckily we were almost done anyway phew.

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:03:22) Outcome vs process: luck, good decisions, and post mortems
(00:09:16) Poker as repeated high impact decisions and learning while folding
(00:12:45) Symmetry, asymmetry, and spotting obviously bad bets
(00:18:34) Focus on decision quality, not results: lessons from early poker hands
(00:23:34) Plans that fail from wrong models: refining sell strategies
(00:28:15) Designing a simple, robust framework: time, percentage, and mean reversion
(00:31:28) Support break and playful side bets (brief interlude)
(00:31:59) Defining enough: goals, asymmetry, and chasing deltas
(00:35:18) Context is king: life design vs maximising returns
(00:38:56) Lifestyle upgrades vs status buys
(00:42:39) Comparing lives you don't want
(00:45:14) Test your dreams: mini retirements and truth over fantasy
(00:48:25) Prediction markets 101: from politics to Eurovision
(00:51:08) Arbitrage basics: finding edge across bookmakers
(00:56:24) Overconfidence, Dunning Kruger and too much information
(01:01:02) Avoiding tilt: energy, time, and knowing when to walk away
(01:03:27) AI flights of fancy: unified physics and healthy scepticism
(01:05:01) Wrap up: from thinking in bets to betting on ideas 

Connect with Mere Mortals:
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As much as it sucks, more volume is almost always the answer.

In Episode #516 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: volume versus form (sparked by a YouTuber/runner known as Ran to Japan), what extreme running volume really looks like when you’re fast enough to compress a marathon into a couple of hours per day, how training load evolves across years, why sheer reps often trump optimisation, steadily ramping the volume to match your goals and importance, why novice gains come from doing more before optimising, how soreness can signal meaningful work done  and when “working dumber” (less overthinking) can paradoxically deliver better outcomes.

No support this week.

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:01:00) Train Harder Not Smarter Mantra
(00:04:44) Ran To Japan: marathons, ultras and doing wild challenges
(00:08:16) Efficiency, pace, and why elite volume takes less time
(00:11:16) Shifting volumes over years: weights, tonnage, and time
(00:17:20) Handstands as a case study: years of reps beat tweaks
(00:23:52) Wind, conditions and noticing small effects with mastery
(00:26:45) Finding and fixing true failure points
(00:28:47) Treadmill tales: the mental game of sticking it out
(00:30:00) Nose breathing, footwear chat and beginner priorities
(00:36:01) Boosts, Brisbane rain and a segue back to effort
(00:36:34) The anterior mid cingulate cortex and doing hard things
(00:41:14) Loving the soreness: goals, injuries, and form trade-offs
(00:46:01) IQ, overthinking and why volume still wins
(00:51:04) Reps over tech: golf, tennis, and learning by doing
(00:55:11) Today's takeaway: do more, then do it smarter

Connect with Mere Mortals:
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It's time for our monthly check in where we review our goals from last month and see what's coming up for the next.

Do you set yourself monthly goals and if so, how many do you set? Juan and I on the first week of every month go over our progress from the previous month and where we are heading for the next. Emphasis as always is on the shortcomings; what we didn't achieve in the previous monthly goals and how we will fix that for the month that comes. We hope you get some value from this series, showcasing our own methodology. What do you do differently and why?

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:45) Juan's February 2026 Recap
(00:08:34) Kyrin's February 2026 Recap
(00:17:49) Support Overview
(00:18:48) Juan's March 2026 Goals
(00:22:58) Kyrin's March 2026 Goals
(00:35:41) Fitness
(00:41:14) V4V

Connect with Mere Mortals:
Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/
Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBn
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspods
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcasts

Value 4 Value Support:
V4V: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/support
Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

Why is iterating hardware so difficult and what would we do if it came time to start a business.

In Episode #515 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: Clayton Christensen's 'The Innovator’s Dilemma' book, why incumbents like IBM and Blockbuster struggled with disruptive shifts, how spin-outs can help large firms explore new markets, whether today’s tech giants (NVIDIA, Amazon, Alphabet) are genuinely pivoting faster than past eras, the trap of single‑thesis bets (e.g., x402 via Coinbase/Circle), the difference between wealth and money via Paul Graham’s classic essay, my slow‑ship shift toward building something around livestreaming/value-for-value/OpenClaw-style agents, Juan's practical plan to buy and streamline existing local service businesses and the enduring challenge of measuring value in a world awash with AI-generated content.

No boostagrams but we do appreciate the streaming!

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:36) The Innovator's Dilemma book
(00:05:20) From hardware to software: DiSASSter
(00:10:58) CapEx arms race: Nvidia up, Apple lagging
(00:15:04) Incumbents can't buy their way out every time
(00:19:13) Is AI truly disruptive? Capital, energy, and hype checks
(00:24:50) Business cycles repeat: pivots, exits, and getting left behind
(00:29:34) Investing today: concentration, tech dominance, and copper
(00:34:05) Investing is prediction: outcomes vs decisions
(00:38:02) Finding exposure: beware tiny bets inside behemoths
(00:41:01) Boostagram Lounge and supporter shout-outs
(00:42:04) Micropayments, value, and streaming money
(00:45:19) Why Lightning may not fit continuous payments
(00:49:53) Two paths: analogue community vs full-tilt AI grind
(00:53:41) A niche edge: 'human-made' as a selling point
(01:03:31) A creator's plan: livestreaming with OpenClaw automation
(01:08:02) Work futures: lifestyle businesses and human uniqueness
(01:14:58) Zero-to-one vs sustainment: knowing your role
(01:20:04) Juan's near-term play: buy, streamline, and bundle SMBs
(01:23:40) Wrap-up and sign-off 

Connect with Mere Mortals:
Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/
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Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspods
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Will the lowering returns on violence along with digital wealth storage lead to an exodus?

In Episode #514 of ' Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: The Sovereign Individual book (1997) highly recommended by Bitcoiners, early chapters bogged in Y2K angst versus strikingly prescient calls on digital money, decentralised media and the emerging cyber economy, how portable digital wealth might change the return on violence, what sovereignty means when nation-states still control critical infrastructure, historical arcs the book frames well (church cohesion and bloat, the rise of nation-states, industrial-era labour leverage) and where its predictions remain wavy, why megapolitics is way more interesting than regular politics and whether we will eventually see the demise of the nation state.

No boostagrams or support for this week, the beanie remains off!

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:02:12) Why this book is famous in Bitcoin circles
(00:03:21) A shaky start: Y2K anxiety and dated worries
(00:07:24) Did they really predict Bitcoin? Tech hits and misses
(00:11:14) Core thesis: becoming sovereign and limits of the nation state
(00:13:32) What the book mostly covers: history and the rise of states
(00:16:05) Have nation states fractured? Power, wealth, and timelines
(00:18:39) Tech predictions vs social change: flying cars to hoverboards
(00:22:45) Numbers vs life: the underestimated intangibles of place
(00:25:01) Mobility is hard: visas, citizenship, and places that want you
(00:28:58) Libertarian reactions and margin notes in the library copy
(00:35:03) Evolution, brutality, and who loses in a sovereign-first world
(00:39:41) Public goods dilemma: bins, buses, roads, and who pays
(00:41:07) Free market hopes vs missing pure libertarian examples
(00:45:15) Effective vs efficient government and outsourcing to markets
(00:50:50) Boostagram Lounge and live chat banter (skating and humour)
(00:53:02) Key idea 1: Returns on violence across societal stages
(00:56:54) Key idea 2: The churchs early positive role and later bloat
(01:00:48) From fiefdoms to nation states: merchants, money, and armies
(01:05:09) Tech stacks of state power: cannonballs, printing presses, ledgers
(01:10:14) Can states still crush you? Blacklists, access, and workarounds
(01:17:12) Anonymity needs crowds: mixing, privacy coins, and cash claims
(01:20:19) Verdict on portability: harder to police digital than physical
(01:25:59) The Jenga tower of ideas: keeping what sticks
(01:27:55) New vocabulary: Megapolitical and thinking above politics
(01:31:14) Final thoughts, sign-off, and when to listen live 

Connect with Mere Mortals:
Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/
Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBn
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What makes a bun dance?

In Episode #513 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: the definition of abundance versus how futurists/technologists and everyday folks actually use it, the conflation of “lots of something” with “zero friction access,” whether abundance must be global or can be meaningfully local, test the concept across water, food, intelligence and money, why more does not equal free (or even better), scarcity’s persistent psychological pull, whether a world of replicators (à la Star Trek) would make us healthier or simply more indulgent, Dyson spheres/Matryoshka brains/chess engines and why perfect performance is boring compared to messy human stories.

Huge shoutout to Cole for the support!

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline: 
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:26) Defining abundance: frictionless access vs sheer quantity
(00:03:21) Is abundance local or global? Water as a case study
(00:05:23) Tech and food narratives: AI will make everything abundant
(00:08:46) Limits, time and space: why infinite abundance breaks down
(00:11:14) Air as the closest real abundance; distribution still matters
(00:14:29) Observer effects: meaning, colour and value are perceived
(00:20:29) Wealth, perspective and the abundance mindset
(00:21:45) Boostagram Lounge: Star Trek replicators and personal vs private property
(00:23:07) Is abundance actually good? Utopia, suffering and growth
(00:26:25) Replicators and diet: would unlimited food make us healthier?
(00:32:29) Health, sport and sameness: does abundance kill excitement?
(00:36:58) Scarcity still drives value: the mine effect
(00:40:00) Waste, recycling and shifting norms in abundant contexts
(00:43:27) Raising the floor vs widening the gap: distribution dynamics
(00:46:54) Utopian promises, isms and the risk of abundanceism
(00:51:58) More isnt always better: goals, dieting and selfcontrol
(00:56:57) Longevity, time perception and what remains human
(00:59:26) Closing thoughts and next weeks book review: The Sovereign Individual 

Connect with Mere Mortals:
Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/
Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBn
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspods
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Are there any downsides to taking part in upsides?

In Episode #512 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: how the internet moved from corporate networks to open protocol networks to blockchain networks, Dixon’s framing (read, write, own), why he thinks open protocols like RSS struggled against corporate platforms, where blockchains might change take rates, the real-world viability of tokenomics, if ownership will matter for in a future of AI, micro‑payments and abundant digital goods, games vs music business models and whether people will actually care about on-chain ownership if everything becomes cheap and effortless to access. 

No support for this week :'(

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:25) Book pick: Read, Write, Own by Chris Dixon
(00:04:16) Corporate vs protocol networks; email and the open web
(00:07:23) Owning the network: why blockchains change incentives
(00:13:25) Governance, take rates and platform lock-ins
(00:17:56) Music vs gaming revenues: models and innovation
(00:21:30) Protocol pessimism and the RSS debate in podcasting
(00:25:04) Value for value: Podcasting 2.0 funding dilemmas
(00:30:08) Could a blockchain fund open infrastructure?
(00:34:27) Designing a micropayments-first podcast app
(00:38:22) Do users care about digital ownership?
(00:41:48) Abundance thesis: free content and data trade-offs
(00:45:30) Will advertisers pay users directly?
(00:49:45) Will ownership still matter in an abundant world?
(00:53:01) Digital status, scarcity and beachfront reality
(00:58:48) Extreme efficiency futures: cars, housing and cost curves
(01:03:05) Human status, achievement and digital provenance
(01:08:33) Voice-first generation and app-less experiences
(01:14:47) Ownership vs access: memories, messages and guarantees
(01:16:54) Wrap-up: book verdict and sign-off 

Connect with Mere Mortals:
Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/
Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBn
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspods
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Value 4 Value Support:
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It's time for our monthly check in where we review our goals from last month and see what's coming up for the next.

Do you set yourself monthly goals and if so, how many do you set? Juan and I on the first week of every month go over our progress from the previous month and where we are heading for the next. Emphasis as always is on the shortcomings; what we didn't achieve in the previous monthly goals and how we will fix that for the month that comes. We hope you get some value from this series, showcasing our own methodology. What do you do differently and why?

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:36) Juan's January 2026 Recap
(00:06:10) Kyrin's January 2026 Recap
(00:12:51) Support Overview
(00:13:27) Juan's February 2026 Goals
(00:18:24) Kyrin's February 2026 Goals
(00:24:01) Moltbot Sidenote
(00:32:21) Fitness
(00:37:00) V4V

Connect with Mere Mortals:
Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/
Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBn
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspods
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcasts

Value 4 Value Support:
V4V: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/support
Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

You can't say yes to everything .... so where do you draw the line?

In Episode #511 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: the “hell yes versus no” decision-making lens and where it truly fits, opportunity cost/time constraints/certainty versus uncertainty, how emotion or rationality shapes decisions, stacking reasons to make a strong yes, a practical quadrant for choosing activities based on enjoyment and likelihood of meeting people.

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:03:39) Context matters: opportunity cost, age and life stage
(00:07:45) Replacing habits: when a simple yes is enough
(00:09:44) Decision heuristics: yes vs hell no for everyday choices
(00:13:14) Capacity fills the time: stacking commitments and hard trade-offs
(00:19:10) Workplace decision matrices vs personal life choices
(00:23:06) System 1 and System 2: training intuition with deliberate thinking
(00:27:49) Certainty vs uncertainty: when you need a hell yes to persist
(00:31:07) A practical framework: enjoyment vs meeting-people quadrants
(00:35:25) Boostagram lounge
(00:36:02) Listener input: lazy no vs instinctive no
(00:37:40) Upcoming moonshot gathering: why it's a clear yes
(00:44:31) Stacking reasons: VeeCon memories, serendipity and energy
(00:50:00) New tech temptations: why not every tool warrants a yes
(00:55:01) Where we're still weak at decisions: money and overcommitting
(01:03:17) Emotion vs reason: explaining feelings with rationality
(01:05:48) Wrap-up, live time and Brisbane Marathon team invite 

Connect with Mere Mortals:
Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/
Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBn
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspods
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We're destressing and just going over all the non-goal related things swirling around in the current moment.

In Episode #510 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: the old million dollar homepage and the new x402 version, experimenting with a cheeky one‑pixel squatting strategy to test rent‑seeking dynamics, why some value‑for‑value/Lightning initiatives plateau despite strong early communities, advertising economics from retro web banners to F1 liveries, if energy could become the unit of exchange in agent‑to‑agent worlds and whether the current moment has the most amount of historical rate of change.

Huge thanks to Cole for the support!

Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortals

Timeline:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:49) Remembering the Million Dollar Homepage and link rot
(00:03:07) Hype cycles and the modern x402 Wall revival
(00:06:44) Domain‑squatting pixels: ethics and ROI debate
(00:12:45) Advertising realities: from F1 liveries to failed walls
(00:15:04) Old web ads versus brands and what’s obsolete now
(00:19:10) Micropayments vision: beyond subscriptions
(00:23:56) Index decentralisation, AI spam, and niche podcasts
(00:28:20) Ads, ethics, and why ‘wall squatting’ targets advertisers
(00:32:03) Boom–bust build‑outs, block space, and critics
(00:36:54) Agents, moats, and access to compute
(00:39:02) Boostagram Lounge and community shout‑outs
(00:45:34) Agents doing business end‑to‑end: Truth Terminal case
(00:50:07) Beyond attention? Energy, agency, and ‘currency’
(00:56:36) Speculating on rights for uploaded minds and AI
(01:00:24) Short‑term goals, schooling, and planning in fast change
(01:05:03) Is today’s change really faster? Moore’s Law debate
(01:10:26) Exponential feels: compressing change into months
(01:16:22) Falling out of the loop: TikTok, crypto, and pace
(01:19:35) Can AI replace governments? Companies vs states
(01:23:46) Wrap‑up, shout‑outs, and value‑for‑value support 

Connect with Mere Mortals:
Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/
Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBn
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