Meteorology Matters

The Empathizing-Systemizing (E-S) Theory and its Relevance

The E-S theory is a central framework discussed in both sources, hypothesizing that individuals possess varying degrees of "empathizing" and "systemizing" cognitive styles.

• Systemizing: Defined as "(1) the drive to create and analyze psychological sets of logical rules, or “systems,” related to and constructed around things that occur in the world, and (2) the ability to intuit how systems work in the physical world." (Bolton et al., 2018). It involves identifying "lawful regularities in physical and other systems" and understanding cause-and-effect relationships ("if I do X, A changes to B. If Z occurs, P changes to Q"). There are six main types of systems: abstract, mechanical, natural, collectible, motoric, and social.
• Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC): Individuals with ASC are hypothesized to be "inherently stronger at “systemizing” than they are empathizing" (Bolton et al., 2018). This manifests as a natural drive to "seek truth—a concept defined here as 'precise, reliable, consistent, or lawful patterns or structure in [some kind of] data' through psychological system-building." (Bolton et al., 2018). The concept of "hyper-systemizing" attempts to explain repetitive behaviors and a disinterest in socializing often observed in ASC, as "the social world, driven by emotions, is far less lawful than domains that include spinning objects or record keeping." (Bolton et al., 2018).

II. Psychological Profile of Meteorologists

The Bolton et al. (2018) study provides the first examination of meteorologists' personality and mental health relative to other physical scientists (engineers and physicists).

• Empathizing and Systemizing: Meteorologists in the study sample were found to be "higher in empathizing and systemizing" compared to engineers and physicists. While they were "the strongest systemizers" when compared to the combined group, they also showed the "highest group tendency for empathic expression." (Bolton et al., 2018). This suggests a unique "balancing of the E-S cognitive profiles within meteorologists," which is sensible given the profession's "orientation toward public service." (Bolton et al., 2018).
• Autistic Traits: Engineers and physicists reported "significantly higher autistic trait amounts" than meteorologists. Meteorologists scored comparably on the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) to other STEM groups in previous research, but were lower than the engineers and physicists in this specific sample.

III. Weather Salience in Autism Spectrum Conditions

Bolton et al. (2020) introduce and explore the concept of "weather salience" in autistic individuals.

• Definition of Weather Salience: "the degree to which individuals attribute psychological value or importance to the weather and the extent to which they are attuned to their atmospheric environments" (Stewart 2009, quoted in Bolton et al., 2020).
• Key Findings:Increased Weather Salience in Autism: Initial findings suggest that "enhanced weather salience exists among autistic individuals relative to those without the condition" (Bolton et al., 2020). While statistically non-significant in most studies, autistic participants consistently showed higher weather salience scores.

Meteorology Matters discusses a study indicating that human influence on global climate, specifically stratospheric cooling, could have been detected as early as 1885, preceding the widespread use of automobiles. Researchers conducted an experiment using modern climate models and hypothetical 1860 measurement capabilities to identify this early "human fingerprint" on atmospheric temperatures. The study highlights that stratospheric cooling is a strong indicator due to its clear response to CO2 increases and minimal natural variability, making detection easier than with surface temperatures. The authors of the study emphasize the importance of continued observation of the upper atmosphere for monitoring climate change, especially given current budget cuts impacting climate research.

Meteorology Matters discusses an ongoing lawsuit in Rockland County, New York, challenging the accuracy of the 2024 Presidential and Senate election results, particularly concerning alleged missing votes for Kamala Harris and Diane Sare. The lawsuit, brought by SMART Legislation, seeks a full hand recount due to statistical anomalies and voter affidavits claiming uncounted ballots. A significant point of contention is the "de minimis" software updates to voting machines, which critics argue were untested and lacked transparency. One source further alleges a complex conspiracy involving Eaton, Palantir, and Starlink, claiming these entities manipulated election data remotely and erased digital footprints, suggesting a "vote-flipping algorithm" was in play that resulted in statistically improbable outcomes favoring Donald Trump. While the lawsuit will not overturn the national results, it aims to expose systemic flaws and influence future election integrity policies.

Environmental and safety concerns surrounding the Turkey Point nuclear power plant in Miami-Dade County, Florida, particularly its aging infrastructure and cooling canal system. A central issue highlighted is the hypersaline plume originating from the plant's cooling canals, which is threatening Miami's primary drinking water aquifer and the surrounding ecosystem. Environmental groups, such as Miami Waterkeeper, express alarm over the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's decision to extend the plant's operating license given its age and vulnerability to climate change impacts like hurricanes, sea-level rise, and extreme heat. While Florida Power & Light (FPL), the plant's owner, asserts the facility's safety and efforts to mitigate the plume, experts and activists suggest alternative cooling methods, like cooling towers, as more effective solutions to prevent further contamination and environmental damage.

Google DeepMind and Google Research's new initiative, Weather Lab, which aims to improve tropical cyclone prediction using artificial intelligence (AI). This platform features an experimental AI model that predicts various aspects of cyclones, including formation, track, intensity, size, and shape, up to 15 days in advance, with 50 possible scenarios. The article highlights the model's superior accuracy compared to traditional physics-based methods for both track and intensity predictions. Furthermore, it explains the collaborative efforts with organizations like the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) to validate and integrate these AI-powered forecasts into official warnings and disaster preparedness. The text also emphasizes that Weather Lab is a research tool, and its predictions are experimental, advising users to refer to official meteorological agencies for critical information.

• Effective Shutdown of Climate.gov: The website is likely to cease publishing new content imminently. The "entire content production staff at climate.gov (including me) were let go from our government contract on 31 May," stated an anonymous former contractor. This signifies a de facto shutdown of new information dissemination.
• Targeted Elimination of Staff: The dismissals were highly specific, with former program manager Rebecca Lindsey describing a situation where a demand came "from above" to "rewrite parts of the contract to remove the team’s funding." Tom Di Liberto, a former NOAA spokesperson, noted, "They only fired a handful of people, and it just so happened to be the entire content team for climate.gov. I mean, that’s a clear signal."
• Political Motivation and Suppression of Science: The consensus among former staff is that the actions were politically motivated and aimed at restricting public access to climate information. Lindsey believed it was a "very deliberate, targeted attack," and stated that the administration is engaging in a "slow and quiet way of trying to keep science agencies from providing information to the American public about climate." Di Liberto explicitly states, "It’s clear that the administration does not accept climate science, so it’s certainly concerning."
• Loss of a Trusted, Non-Partisan Source: Climate.gov was recognized as an "extremely well-trusted source for climate information." Lindsey emphasized that the content was "specifically designed to be politically neutral, and faithful to the current state of the sciences," and that they "operated exactly how you would want an independent, non-partisan communications group to operate."
• Vulnerability to Misinformation and Propaganda: A significant concern among the fired staff is the potential for the administration to "co-opt climate.gov to publish its own anti-science content." Lindsey feared a "sinister possibility" of the administration providing "a content team from the Heartland Institute, leveraging our audience, our brand, our millions of people that we reach on social media every month. That’s the worst-case scenario." The contractor also worried about the site turning into "a propaganda website for this administration." The absence of staff to "pushback on misinformation" on social media accounts further compounds this risk.

Timeline of Main Events

• 1950-2016: Florida experiences an increase of approximately 25 extreme rain events annually.
• 1970-2020: Tide gauge observations are recorded to estimate sea-level rise rates for the eastern Gulf Coast.
• 1982-Present (implied up to Nov 2024): Storm tracks in the Atlantic basin are recorded in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship database.
• 1985-Present (implied up to Nov 2024): Marine heat wave data becomes available and is recorded.
• 1990s: Widespread marine heat waves spanning hundreds of miles begin to be recorded.
• 2006-2015: Florida experiences a decade without a single hurricane strike.
• 2017: Hurricane Harvey strengthens from a tropical depression into a Category 4 hurricane in two days before striking the Texas coast. This year also marks the beginning of an eight-year streak of major Gulf landfalls.
• 2017: Hurricane Irma hits the Gulf Coast with ferocious intensity.
• 2022: Hurricane Ian's wind speeds nearly double in roughly 22 hours before the storm makes landfall in Southwest Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, becoming the costliest hurricane in state history.
• 2023: Hurricane Idalia ravages the Big Bend area of Florida with a 10-foot storm surge.
• 2023: A severe coral bleaching event occurs in Florida, leading to significant coral mortality and prompting NOAA to extend their severity scale.
• 2023: Daily average sea temperatures at Buoy Key, Florida, reach their highest May levels in documented history.
• 2024: Atypical heat continues in the Caribbean throughout the year.
• October 2024: Hurricane Milton strengthens from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.
• October 2024: Hurricane Milton's historic rain floods inland neighborhoods in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, including Clearwater and parts of North Tampa, with up to 17 inches of rain in five hours. Stormwater pumps fail in some areas.
• May 2025: More than 4,000 daily record high temperature reports occur across the United States, more than double the number of record lows.
• Early May 2025: A deadly Mid-Atlantic atmospheric river occurs, fueled by increased moisture from the marine heat wave.
• May 24, 2025: Sea temperatures near Buoy Key, Florida, reach 98 degrees Fahrenheit.
• May 25, 2025 (last weekend before May 29): Ocean temperatures near 98 degrees are recorded by a buoy in Everglades National Park.
• May 26, 2025 (last Sunday before May 29): Houston sets a new overall monthly record low overnight temperature of 82 degrees.
• May 27, 2025 (last Monday before May 29): Fort Lauderdale, Florida, records a low of 82 degrees, a record for May.
• May 29, 2025: Golf ball-size hail pummel Austin, Texas.
• May 30, 2025 (Last Thursday before May 31): Tampa experiences an 80-degree low temperature, its hottest May morning on record (since 1890). Downpours are expected from Louisiana to Georgia.

CHECK IT OUT HERE…https://youtube.com/@wclivestream

1. Response to Funding Cuts and Policy Changes: The primary driver for the scientists' actions is the substantial cuts to federal agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA, and the Department of Energy, as well as the withholding of research funding to academia by the Trump administration. The CNN article explicitly states this effort is a "response to policy moves" and seen as a form of "resistance to the administration’s changes." The livestream website highlights that the community has been "thwarted in our mission of serving the public due to substantial cuts and firings."
2. "The Scientist-iest" Resistance: Rather than traditional forms of protest, scientists are engaging the public through a multi-day livestream of presentations about their work. Climate scientist Kate Marvel describes this approach as potentially "The scientist-iest thing we could do," emphasizing that it makes sense given their expertise. The goal is to demonstrate the value and impact of their research on the American public.
3. The Weather & Climate Livestream: This is the central initiative discussed in both sources. It is a 100-hour continuous livestream featuring climate and weather specialists giving 15-minute talks about their work.

• Timing: It runs from Wednesday, May 28th at 1 p.m. ET to Sunday, June 1st at 5:30 p.m. ET.
• Goal: To call attention to the impacts of the cuts and demonstrate how their science benefits the public. Marc Alessi of the Union of Concerned Scientists states, "If the American public tunes in, they watch our science talks, they will see how our science benefits the public."
• Format: Includes individual talks, panel discussions (including terminated NOAA employees and former National Weather Service directors), and AMAs (Ask Me Anything) with scientists. Notable participants mentioned include Kate Marvel, Paul Markowski, Ben Santer, Kerry Emanuel, and others.
• Content: The livestream will cover a wide range of topics, including agriculture and climate, hurricanes, ocean heat, the water cycle, air quality, drought, floods, measuring CO2, sea level rise, tornadoes, and more, linking them to federal agencies responsible for these areas (EPA, NOAA, NASA, USDA, UCAR SciEd, USGS).

Above-Normal Season Predicted:

• NOAA's official outlook predicts an above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin.
• NOAA states a "60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a near-normal season."
• Fox Weather notes that Colorado State University (CSU) also projected an above-average season in their April outlook, with specific numbers slightly higher than historical averages (17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes).

1. NOAA's Specific Forecast Ranges:

• NOAA's annual outlook predicts a range of activity:
• 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).
• 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher).
• 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
• NOAA expresses "70% confidence in these ranges."
• This contrasts with CSU's approach of providing specific numbers, as mentioned by Fox Weather.

1. Comparison to Average Season:

• An average Atlantic season sees "14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes," according to Fox Weather.
• NOAA's predicted ranges for 2025 (13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes) are generally at or above these average numbers.

1. Influencing Factors for the Outlook:

• ENSO-Neutral Conditions: Both sources emphasize the current ENSO-neutral phase (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Fox Weather notes that "ENSO-neutral years are notoriously difficult to predict," but NOAA states that "continued ENSO-neutral conditions" are a factor contributing to the expected above-normal season, alongside other elements.
• Warmer Than Average Ocean Temperatures: This is cited as a significant factor. NOAA explicitly states, "Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage." The NOAA press release notes "warmer than average ocean temperatures" and "high-heat content in the ocean" which "provides more energy to fuel storm development."
• Weaker Wind Shear: NOAA forecasts "weak wind shear," which "allow the storms to develop without disruption."
• West African Monsoon: NOAA mentions the "potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon," which is "a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes" and can produce "tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms."
• Unusual Cooler Tropical Waters Compared to 2024 (Fox Weather): Fox Weather notes that tropical waters in the Main Development Region are "approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than 2024 levels," although still "well above the long-term average." This introduces some uncertainty, though light trade winds could change this quickly.

• May 2025 (Earlier in the month): Five former directors of the National Weather Service write a "letter to the American people" expressing concern about staffing shortages and reduced resources, such as weather balloon deployments.
• May 15, 2025: USA TODAY publishes an article highlighting that National Weather Service offices are short-staffed following Trump administration cuts, with some offices no longer operating 24/7. The article also mentions offers for current employees to transfer to fill 155 vacant positions, including 76 meteorologist positions.
• May 16, 2025 (Thursday): The National Weather Service office in Jackson, Kentucky, recognizing the threat of a major severe weather outbreak, decides to fully staff the overnight shift despite being short-staffed.
• May 17, 2025 (Friday): A severe weather system sweeps through the central U.S., including Missouri and Kentucky.
• Afternoon Rush Hour (St. Louis): The path of destruction from a likely tornado begins on a major thoroughfare in St. Louis before moving east.
• Friday (Throughout the day): A tornado strikes several rural areas in Scott County, Missouri, killing two people and injuring several others.
• Friday (Throughout the day): Five people die and 38 are injured in the St. Louis area. Over 5,000 homes in the city are affected.
• Friday (Overnight into Saturday): A devastating tornado impacts Laurel County, Kentucky, at 11:49 p.m.
• May 17, 2025 (Saturday):
• Morning: As of Saturday morning, at least 21 people have died across Missouri and Kentucky (14 in Kentucky, 7 in Missouri). The death toll is expected to rise.
• Saturday: Rescue teams continue searching for survivors in damaged areas.
• Saturday (Throughout the day): City inspectors in St. Louis begin condemning unsafe structures.
• Saturday evening: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear confirms at least 18 deaths in Kentucky and speaks at a press conference in London, Kentucky.
• Saturday evening: St. Louis Mayor Cara Spencer confirms five deaths in the city, over 30 injuries, and approximately 5,000 impacted buildings.
• Saturday night (9 p.m. to 6 a.m. Sunday): A curfew is in effect in St. Louis due to downed power lines and to protect property.
• May 18, 2025 (Sunday):
• As of Sunday, the death toll from the recent storms across multiple states exceeds two dozen.
• Sunday: In London, Kentucky, people whose houses were destroyed work to salvage belongings and put up tarps. Zach Wilson describes the scene at his parents' ruined home.
• Sunday: St. Louis Fire Chief Dennis Jenkerson warns residents to prepare for approaching weather.
• Sunday: The National Weather Service warns of a "multitude of hazardous weather" expected over the next several days.
• Sunday: City inspectors continue to assess damaged areas in St. Louis and condemn unsafe structures.
• Sunday: Authorities confirm two storm-related deaths in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., caused by falling trees.
• Sunday: The NWS Employees Union confirms that short staffing at the Jackson, Kentucky office did not affect tornado warnings for the deadly storms.
• Week of May 19, 2025:
• More severe storms are expected to roll across the central U.S.
• Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and persist into the evening across parts of the Plains into the Ozarks.
• Another storm system is expected to pick up to the west, with strong tornadoes in the forecast for parts of the Plains by Sunday.