Meteorology Matters

Impending Winter Storms - Midwest and Northeast (February 2025)

Executive Summary:

The Midwest and Northeast of the United States are bracing for a series of five winter storms expected to deliver significant snowfall and ice over a two-week period starting in early February 2025. These storms, driven by a persistent jet stream, could bring more snow than the regions have experienced in the past two winters combined, potentially leading to hazardous travel conditions, school closures, and power outages. The Washington Post article notes that "Snowfall has been below average so far this season across many parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. That may not be the case in a week from now."

Key Themes and Forecast Details:

• Jet Stream Influence: The jet stream is identified as the primary driver of these storms. Both sources mention the jet stream's role in funneling storms across the northern US. CNN states: "The storms are being driven by the jet stream, essentially a river of air in the atmosphere that storms flow through." and the Washington Post notes that "A powerful jet stream, or ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere upon which storms track, will fuel several winter storms next week.".
• Significant Snowfall Potential: The articles forecast substantial snowfall, with some areas potentially receiving double-digit snowfall amounts in a single storm. The CNN article states that "Boston could be buried by a foot of snow Saturday night and Sunday, which would be more snow than fell all of last winter."
• Icing Concerns: In addition to snow, freezing rain and sleet are expected, particularly south of Interstate 80, creating hazardous conditions. The Washington Post states "Freezing rain and sleet will be a big part of the weekend storm, especially south of Interstate 80 from Ohio through New Jersey, from late Saturday into early Sunday." The CNN article notes "A mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will spread over Pennsylvania by Saturday evening. The same messy mix will spread through New Jersey, New York City and Long Island shortly after."
• Affected Areas:Snow: A corridor from central Minnesota through northern Michigan, central portions of New York, southern Maine, and southern New England (including Boston) is expected to receive significant snowfall.

Alt National Park Service & the Political Climate

Date: Feb 7, 2024

Subject: Emergence and Activities of the Alt National Park Service in a Politically Charged Environment

Executive Summary:

Radiology mattersexamines the Alt National Park Service (AltNPS), focusing on its origins, motivations, activities, and the broader political context in which it operates. The AltNPS, initially formed in 2017 in response to perceived threats to environmental protection under the Trump administration, has re-emerged amidst concerns about government actions, particularly those involving Elon Musk and his team's influence within federal agencies. The group acts as a "resistance" movement, aiming to protect the environment, public lands, and government employees from what it views as detrimental policies and actions.

Key Themes and Ideas:

1. Origins and Purpose:

• The AltNPS emerged in 2017 following the election of Donald Trump, driven by concerns over potential environmental deregulation and suppression of scientific information. As described on their Facebook page, they are "the official 'resistance' team of U.S. National Park Service," with a mission "to stand up for the National Park Service to help protect and preserve the environment for present and future generations."
• The group initially utilized social media, particularly Twitter, to disseminate information and express their concerns, sometimes in defiance of official gag orders or restrictions on government communications.

1. Concerns Regarding Government Actions and Influence:

• A central theme is the AltNPS's opposition to actions taken by the Trump administration and, specifically, the influence of Elon Musk and his staff within federal agencies. The AltNPS Facebook posts from early 2025 detail a range of concerns, including:
• Access to sensitive data: "Elon Musk now has access to your Social Security number. The world’s richest man has gained access to the confidential personal information of every taxpayer in the United States."
• Potential misuse of power: "An Elon Musk staffer misused the U.S. Marshals Service by falsely invoking their authority to intimidate."
• Workforce reductions and restructuring: "The Trump administration plans to reduce the USAID workforce from over 10,000 to around 290 positions."
• Rollbacks of environmental protections: "Trump announced that he plans to sign an executive order next week to end the promotion of paper straws as an alternative to plastic ones. So much for the sea turtles."
• Restrictions on federal employees and their communications: "Memos have been distributed to instill fear, warning federal employees that layoffs will begin if not enough people accept Elon’s buyout. This no longer feels 'voluntary'."

1. Methods of Resistance and Advocacy:

• Information Dissemination: The AltNPS uses social media platforms to share information about government actions, potential threats to the environment, and resources for federal employees. They describe themselves as "a group of tree-huggers dedicated to keeping Americans informed."
• Call to Action: The AltNPS encourages the public to contact elected officials, spread awareness, and support their cause. "Please continue to call and spread the word."

Today’s Meteorology Matters podcast is based on an article from The Atlantic on how Hitler dismantled democracy in Germany except you’ll notice one tiny detail has been changed. Donald Trump‘s name has been substituted for Adolf Hitler‘s.

How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days

Source: "How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days" by Timothy W. Ryback, The Atlantic (January 8, 2025)

Executive Summary:

This article details the rapid and calculated manner in which Adolf Hitler, after becoming Chancellor of Germany on January 30, 1933, systematically dismantled the Weimar Republic's democratic structures and processes. The article highlights Hitler's exploitation of the existing constitution and political vulnerabilities to consolidate power and establish an authoritarian regime within a remarkably short timeframe (53 days). It emphasizes that this process was not inevitable but rather a result of political contingency and strategic exploitation of weaknesses in the Weimar system.

Main Themes and Key Ideas:

• Exploitation of Legal Loopholes: Hitler recognized and exploited the "potential weakness inherent in every formal form of law" (Hans Frank). He used the Weimar Constitution itself as a tool to subvert democracy, ironically fulfilling a "legality oath" he took before the Constitutional Court.
• Obstruction and Paralysis: Prior to becoming Chancellor, Hitler spent years undermining the political system by "co-opting or crushing right-wing competitors and paralyzing legislative processes."

Key Quotes:

• "Hitler set about destroying a constitutional republic through constitutional means."
• "Hitler knew firsthand how easily an ambitious political agenda could be scuttled."
• "37 percent represents 75 percent of 51 percent," (Hitler's flawed logic regarding his party's power.)
• “The Führer was a man who was possible in Germany only at that very moment,” (Hans Frank)
• "After a thirteen-year struggle the National Socialist movement has succeeded in breaking through into the government, but the struggle to win the German nation is only beginning," (Hitler after the elections).
• "In this historic hour, we German Social Democrats solemnly pledge ourselves to the principles of humanity and justice, of freedom and socialism," (Otto Wels's defiant speech).
• "No enabling act gives you the power to destroy ideas that are eternal and indestructible," (Otto Wels).
• “On the basis of this law the Hitler Cabinet can reconstruct the entire system of government as it eliminates practically all constitutional restraints.” (U.S. Ambassador Frederic Sackett)

Implications:

The article serves as a cautionary tale about the fragility of democratic institutions and the dangers of political extremism. It underscores the importance of vigilance in protecting constitutional guardrails and resisting attempts to exploit legal processes for authoritarian ends. It also highlights the role of individual actors and the potential for seemingly minor decisions to have profound historical consequences.

National Weatherperson's Day: This day, observed on February 5th, commemorates the birth of John Jeffries (1744/1745-1819), a physician and one of America’s first weather observers, who began daily measurements in Boston in 1774 and who took the first balloon observation in 1784. The day recognizes the men and women who provide weather, water, and climate services. It was created in the 1990’s. Meteorology Matters provides an overview of the meteorology field, its various facets, and related professions. We cover career paths, educational requirements, job outlook, demographics, and the historical context of weather observation. It highlights the diversity within the field and the numerous roles professionals play in public safety, scientific advancement, and commercial sectors on this National Weatherperson’s Day in the USA

Florida Heat and Worker Safety

Key Themes:

1. Extreme Heat as a Growing Threat:

• Florida is experiencing increasingly severe and frequent heat waves, exacerbated by climate change and warming oceans.
• The heat index, which factors in both temperature and humidity, is reaching dangerous levels. South Florida is particularly hard hit, experiencing a much greater number of days with heat indexes above 105F than in previous years.
• "The climate crisis is making Florida hotter – and more humid." ("3 heat.pdf")
• Data shows record-breaking temperatures across Florida, with 2023 having some of the hottest months on record, and 2024 seeing record April and May temperatures.
• "Last year tied as the hottest ever, with July and August 2023 both breaking monthly records. So far this year, Florida has recorded its hottest ever April and May..." ("3 heat.pdf")

1. Vulnerable Outdoor Workers:

• A significant portion of Florida's workforce is exposed to extreme heat while working outdoors. Estimates range from 25% to 26.2% of the workforce. This includes landscaping, construction, agricultural, and amusement park workers.
• "A new report suggests one in four Floridians who work outdoors are vulnerable to extreme heat, according to the Florida Policy Institute (FPI)." ("3 hot.pdf")
• Many of these workers are low-wage, migrant workers from Mexico, Central America, Cuba and Haiti, with less access to information and resources.
• "Florida has an estimated 1.8 million outdoor workers, predominantly migrants, who are exposed to increasingly brutal weather conditions..." ("3 heat.pdf")
• "The heat makes you feel like you’re suffocating," said Raimundo Perdigon, 58, from Cuba, recalling a recent job building an outdoor bathroom. ("3 heat.pdf")
• Indigenous Guatemalan workers, some of whom speak little English or Spanish, are particularly vulnerable due to difficulty accessing health information and advice.

Impending Eruption of Axial Seamount Underwater Volcano

Summary:

Meteorology Matters looks at the Axial Seamount, an underwater volcano located approximately 300 miles off the coast of Oregon, is highly likely to erupt sometime in 2025. This prediction is based on decades of monitoring, a pattern of regular eruptions, and real-time data indicating the volcano is inflating as magma accumulates. While this eruption poses no direct threat to human lives due to its depth and distance from shore, it provides a unique research opportunity to improve volcanic forecasting and understand undersea volcanic processes.

Key Themes and Findings:

1. Imminent Eruption:

• Multiple sources agree that the Axial Seamount is expected to erupt in 2025.
• William Chadwick, a geologist at the University of Oregon and a key researcher studying the seamount, is quoted in multiple articles stating the eruption is likely this year: "A year ago, Axial seemed to be taking a nap but now it’s waking up and we think it’s likely to erupt before the end of 2025," and "An eruption does not seem imminent, but it can’t do this forever,”
• The volcano's behavior (inflation and increased seismicity) mirrors patterns observed before previous eruptions in 1998, 2011, and 2015.

1. Unique Monitoring Capabilities:

• The Axial Seamount is described as "the most active submarine volcano in the northeast Pacific" and "the most well-instrumented submarine volcano on the planet."
• It is monitored by a network of instruments and cables extending from the coast, providing real-time data. This includes seismometers, bottom pressure recorders, and the "Regional Cabled Array" which has more than 140 instruments.
• This extensive monitoring allows researchers to closely track the volcano's activity: "And so we actually have real time data from Axial Seamount, which is pretty unusual." - William Chadwick
• Scientists are able to track the volcano's inflation, a key indicator of an impending eruption: "The volcano has been inflating 'like a balloon' as molten rock accumulates within."

1. Predictable Eruption Pattern:

• The Axial Seamount exhibits a "pretty repeatable pattern from one eruption to the next" according to Chadwick.
• Eruptions occur when the volcano reaches a specific level of inflation, making predictions feasible.
• Scientists successfully predicted the 2015 eruption based on these patterns. "The 2015 swelling allowed Chadwick...to predict that year’s eruption — “our best forecasting success,” he says."

1. Non-Threatening to Humans:

• The volcano is approximately 300 miles off the Oregon coast and a mile underwater, meaning that any eruption poses no threat to people or boats on the surface: "If you were on a boat above the volcano, you wouldn't know at all that it had erupted." - Scott Nooner.
• Eruptions are "controlled" and are not expected to generate tsunamis. "The good news is that because the top of the volcano is still 4,500 feet below the ocean’s surface, it poses no danger to people."
• The type of eruption, forming pillow lava, is not explosive and results in oozing lava flow.

Florida flooding four months after hurricane Milton - February 2, 2025

Meteorology Matters summarizes the ongoing challenges faced by communities in Florida following Hurricanes Helene and Milton in October 2024. While some recovery efforts have been completed, many areas, particularly in Pasco County and on Anna Maria Island, continue to grapple with severe flooding, economic strain, and bureaucratic hurdles. The long-term implications include potential population shifts and escalating insurance costs.

Key Themes and Findings:

1. Devastating Flooding and Prolonged Recovery:

• Hurricane Milton, which hit October 9-10, brought significant rainfall (over 15 inches in some areas like Tampa to Daytona Beach) leading to severe flooding, especially in the interior of Florida due to its flat geography.
• "Hurricane Milton, which struck on October 9-10, plunged parts of Florida, from Tampa to Daytona Beach, under more than 15 inches of rain."
• The Withlacoochee River reached its third-highest crest on record (19.68 feet) ten days after the storm.
• Flood warnings in areas like Ridge Manor remained active for 34 consecutive days, highlighting the persistent nature of the flooding.
• Some areas of Pasco County, specifically in Dade City and near Zephyrhills, remain flooded 4 months after the storms.
• Properties in neighborhoods like Hickory Hills in Dade City are still partially underwater, with some residents needing to drive through neighbors’ yards or use boats to access their homes.
• "Dozens of properties in the Hickory Hills neighborhood of Dade City remain partially underwater, including Victor Lemus', who has to drive through a neighbor's yard to access the road."

1. Struggling Communities and Logistical Challenges:

• Communities are facing significant logistical issues, with residents resorting to using airboats to reach polling places during the 2024 presidential election.
• "Overwhelmed by such water levels, residents found themselves not just facing flooded homes but also desperate logistical challenges to vote; many opted for airboat rides to cast their ballots during the 2024 presidential election."
• The lack of accessibility to flooded properties in Pasco County raises concerns about medical emergencies and fire hazards, with residents expressing worries about first responders being unable to reach them.
• Slow and Inadequate Recovery Efforts:Recovery efforts for local governments and public utilities have been slow.
• State-owned pumps initially used to remove water in Pasco County were redeployed in December, leaving residents to deal with the flooding on their own.
• "According to a Pasco County spokesperson, state-owned pumps were used to help remove water from these areas following Hurricanes Helene and Milton... Those pumps, however, were 're-deployed' elsewhere in December..."
• Pasco County authorities cite that they cannot pump water from private property, leaving residents feeling abandoned and blaming the county and FEMA for not providing needed assistance.
• "the flooding is on private property, and the county is not able to pump water from private property."
• "They told FOX 13 they haven't been able to get any assistance from FEMA, or from their local and state elected officials."
• Residents in Pasco County also believe infrastructure and stormwater management have not kept pace with growth which has exacerbated the flooding issue.
• "They said infrastructure in the area hasn’t kept up with explosive growth, and stormwater from elsewhere is ending up trapped there with nowhere to go."

Oklahoma Senate Bill 158 - Weather Tracker Licensure

Subject: Analysis of Senate Bill 158, concerning the regulation and licensure of professional severe weather trackers in Oklahoma.

Sources:

• KFOR News Article: "Bill targets storm chasers with licensure requirements" (referred to as "KFOR Article")
• Senate Bill 158 Text (referred to as "SB 158")

1. Overview

Senate Bill 158 (SB 158), authored by Senator Mark Mann, aims to create a regulatory framework for "professional severe weather trackers" in Oklahoma. The bill, if passed, would establish a licensing process, set requirements for those who track severe weather, and grant certain privileges to licensed trackers, including the ability to operate with emergency vehicle status during significant weather events. The stated goal is to enhance safety by distinguishing professional trackers from amateur enthusiasts, and allow licensed storm trackers to act as emergency responders.

2. Key Provisions of SB 158

• Licensing Requirement: The bill mandates that individuals operating as "professional severe weather trackers" be licensed by Service Oklahoma.
• Definition of "Professional Severe Weather Tracker": SB 158 defines a "professional severe weather tracker" as an individual or company hired by a qualified media outlet or affiliated with a research program at a qualified institution of higher education. They must be employed or contracted with these organizations. ("Professional severe weather tracker’ means a licensed individual or company hired or contracted with by a qualified media outlet or affiliated with a research program at a qualified institution of higher education;")
• Qualified Media Outlet: A qualified media outlet is defined as a television station licensed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) that broadcasts via various platforms (broadcast, cable, streaming). ("Qualified media outlet’ means a television station licensed by the Federal Communications Commission for the broadcast or transmission of television programming via broadcast, cable, streaming, or other platforms as recognized by the Federal Communications Commission;")
• Qualified Institution of Higher Education: A qualified institution is defined as any college or university regulated by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that offers a course or program in meteorology. ("Qualified institution of higher education’ means any college or university regulated by the Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education that offers a course or program in meteorology;")
• Significant Weather Event: The bill defines significant weather events that trigger the special privileges of a licensed tracker, including:
• Enhanced, moderate, or high-risk weather days by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
• Any tornado or severe thunderstorm watch or warning issued by the National Weather Service or the chief meteorologist of a qualified media outlet.
• Winter weather advisories, warnings or watches, and red flag fire warnings. ("Significant weather event’ means: a. a day of enhanced, moderate, or high risk conditions… b. any tornado or severe thunderstorm watch… c. any storm… d. a blizzard warning…e. a red flag fire warning…f. a flash flood warning or flood warning")
• Licensing Requirements: To obtain a license, individuals must:
• Pass a criminal background check.
• Supply a letter of endorsement from a chief meteorologist of a qualified media outlet, or a designated individual from an institution of higher education, attesting to the applicant's knowledge and experience…

NOAA Email Chaos, Weather Funding Cuts & Stopping Science

Date: Jan 30-31st 2025

A newly implemented, centralized email system for federal employees, spearheaded by the Trump administration, experienced a significant security breach on or around January 30, 2025. This breach allowed external actors to send abusive and inappropriate messages to approximately 13,000 employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This incident exposed serious vulnerabilities within the new system, raising concerns about its security, management, and the broader implications for federal communications. Furthermore, it highlighted controversial changes at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which was reportedly responsible for the system’s implementation.

Key Themes and Findings:

1. System Vulnerability and Inadequate Security:

• The new email system, designed to reach all 2.3 million federal employees from a single address, was "cobbled together" rapidly, lacking basic security measures or screening protocols. As one NOAA employee stated, “Goes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together – no security or screening on this address.”

1. Abusive and Inappropriate Content:

• The 13,000 NOAA employees received a barrage of offensive emails, including:
• An email with the subject "Resign," containing the message: "Aren’t you tired of working for a complete c*nt?”
• An “Important Weather Alert” about a “99% chance of shit showers” over the next four years.
• Crude and inflammatory messages critical of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
• Spam subscription confirmation for "Scientology Today."
• Links to a personal newsletter from journalist Ken Klippenstein.
• These messages were described as “extremely offensive,” and “vulgar.”

1. Controversial Changes at OPM:

• The email system was implemented by a new team at the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which reportedly replaced experienced staff with "lackeys from his previous ventures." This reportedly included young, inexperienced individuals from Elon Musk's previous ventures (e.g. xAI, Neuralink, and Peter Thiel’s firms).
• The OPM’s former Chief Information Officer, Melvin Brown II, was reportedly fired for refusing to implement the new email system.
• The new email system is reportedly part of a wider plan for the Trump administration to gather information on government employees and implement a “hostile takeover” of the OPM.
• The OPM's new system is the subject of a class-action lawsuit alleging violations of Bush-era cyber security standards.

1. Immediate Response and Internal Review:

• NOAA Deputy Director of Communications Scott Smullen apologized to staff and stated, “I will report it.”
• Vice Admiral Nancy Hann, NOAA's deputy undersecretary for operations, confirmed the “cyber attack,” acknowledging the offensive emails and apparent “phishing attempts”. She stated, “I am sorry that you were subject to these inappropriate messages and want you to know that we take these matters very seriously.”
• An investigation was launched by NOAA's Office of the Chief Information Officer (OCIO) to prevent future incidents.

Quotes from Sources:

• “Aren’t you tired of working for a complete c*nt?” (Subject line of an email sent to NOAA employees)
• “Goes to show you how fast this [new comms system] was cobbled together – no security or screening on this address.” (NOAA employee quote)

Climate Change Impacts on Property Taxes and Home Insurance

Impact on Property Taxes:

• Reassessments: Natural disasters often lead to property reassessments, temporarily lowering the value of damaged properties and thus reducing property taxes. As stated in the Yahoo article, "natural disasters usually spur property reassessments, which temporarily lower the values of damaged properties while simultaneously reducing homeowners’ taxes."
• Tax Rate Increases: Municipalities might raise property tax rates to offset revenue losses from damaged properties and to fund recovery efforts. The article notes, "In areas that were not affected, tax rates were increased to help offset the loss in revenue,” and, "In Los Angeles, wildfires similarly create more expensive places with taxes to meet increased funding needs."
• Temporary Reductions & Refunds: Some areas provide temporary property tax reductions or refunds to homeowners who have experienced significant losses due to disasters. California, for instance, offers this relief if losses are at least $10,000 of the current market value of the property.
• Restoration of Value: Once rebuilt, a property’s pre-damaged value is typically restored.
• Variations in Laws: Property tax relief measures vary by location, with states like New York enacting specific climate change property tax relief bills. As the Yahoo article states, New York's "Climate Change Property Tax Relief bill... provides assessment relief to property owners within eligible municipalities."
• Higher Rates in Disaster-Prone Areas: "Living in a disaster-prone area can affect your property taxes in several ways. They may be assessed at a higher rate because of the cost of municipal services that include emergency response, building, and maintaining flood control infrastructure." This highlights an ongoing cost for homeowners in these regions.Impact on Home Insurance:

• Rising Premiums: Insurance premiums are rising, particularly in high-risk areas like flood zones and regions prone to hurricanes or wildfires. The Yahoo article quotes, "insurance premiums often rise ‘in areas with the highest risk of natural disasters such as hurricanes or wildfires."
• Policy Non-Renewals: Insurance companies are increasingly dropping coverage for homeowners in disaster-prone areas. The Axios article notes that the share of home insurance policies not renewed in the US ticked up to 1.06% in 2023 from 0.8% in 2018. In Los Angeles County, the increase was more significant, from 0.86% to 1.43%.
• Reduced Market Appeal: Properties in flood zones may see reduced market appeal unless they have mitigation measures in place and the cost of insurance rises as a result, impacting the entire real estate market.
• Concerns about Uninsurability: There is growing concern that some areas could become uninsurable entirely. The Axios piece includes the quote from the outgoing Senate Budget Committee chair, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, stating that rising home non-renewals "spells trouble for property values in climate-exposed communities across the country."
• Climate Risk as Tangible: As noted by Jeremy Porter, "Insurance prices are often the first way that 'climate risk becomes tangible to people'."
• Insurers' Perspective: It is also noted that an insurer trade group argues non-renewal data is "unsuitable" for understanding climate change impacts, since it doesn't explain the reasoning for company decisions.