Beginning on the 1st of October 2025, the US government began its current Federal government shutdown.

The shutdown occurred because Democratic Party Senators refused to support a Continuing Resolution to provide funding for the US government. At the time of writing, Republican Senators have now put up Continuing Resolutions for funding to the Senate 11 times, and Democrat Senators have refused to support them 11 times.

Updated Outlook on the Federal Reserve and Australian Cash Rate

In recent days, several people have asked for my updated view on the Federal Reserve and the Fed funds rate, as well as the outlook for the Australian cash rate. So I thought I’d walk through our model for the Fed funds rate and explain our approach to the RBA’s cash rate.

On 7 July the AFR published a list of 37 Economists who had answered a poll on when the RBA would next cut rates. 32 of them thought that the RBA would cut on 8 July. Only 5 of them did not believe the RBA would cut on 8 July. I was one of them. The RBA did not cut.

Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist discusses why Trumps moves make sense and how Albanese has been poorly briefed on the matter. Listen in to hear his insights

In this insightful interview, Michael Knox, Chief Economist at Morgans, discusses Australia's growing debt and current account deficit, as outlined in the 2025 federal budget. With projections showing a significant increase in debt over the next few years, Michael explores the implications for future generations and whether the government's economic strategies are sustainable. He also reflects on historical warnings from former Prime Minister Paul Keating about the risk of becoming a "banana republic." Tune in for a deep dive into Australia's financial outlook and the challenges ahead.

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that for the RBA to get inflation down to 2.5%, unemployment must rise above 4.5% in Australia.

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Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox says that though the FED are easing quantitative tightening, US consumer demand is still too healthy to allow rate cuts.

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Our Model of US GDP says steady growth just below trend. Just where the Fed needs it to keep US Inflation falling.

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A slowing economy and rising unemployment pushes down interest rates.

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Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox gives an update on the Fed Funds and the RBA Cash Rate.

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Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au

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