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Micron's 2026 Shortage: The AI Stock Nobody's Talking About
January’s jobs report looked solid on the surface but the big story is the massive revision to 2025 job creation, which sparked debate over how reliable the labor data really is. With CME FedWatch odds shifting toward rates holding steady in June, we break down which sectors could get pressured if rate cuts get delayed (real estate, homebuilders, REITs, smaller companies that rely on debt, and even consumer discretionary names like Amazon — plus Tesla as yields stay elevated).
Then we pivot to the other major theme: AI and the market’s rotation from software into hardware. Marc Andreessen frames the debate — are chips and energy where the value is, and does software get commoditized? We talk through why Micron is reportedly sold out of chips through 2026, while software names like Salesforce and HubSpot have been getting hit and why some investors may be turning impatient only three years into what could be a 30-year AI cycle.
We also cover Shopify’s record Q4 revenue ($3.67B, up 31%) and a $2B buyback, yet the stock still dropped as investors focused on margin pressure and AI investment costs. Finally, we tie it together with a simple takeaway: in high-rate uncertainty, investors tend to prefer “tangible” returns and that’s why AI hardware can trade like a perceived store of value versus software that still needs proof points.
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Chapters:
00:00 Intro + January jobs headline
00:31 130K jobs added; unemployment around 4.3%
01:01 Massive 2025 revision: 584K to 181K
01:19 Are these numbers reliable?
01:59 Shutdown delays + private data (cuts/ADP) vs headline
02:53 FedWatch shift: June “hold” odds jump
03:16 Who gets hurt if rate cuts get delayed?
03:52 Rate-sensitive watchlist: housing, small caps, discretionary, Tesla
04:13 Potential upside: international diversification (UK/Asia)
04:47 AI storyline: rotation from software to hardware
05:14 Marc Andreessen clip: where is AI value accruing?
06:01 Micron sold out through 2026; software names pressured
06:53 Is the market too impatient with software?
07:23 AI disruption question: improve vs obsolete
08:08 “Generational buying opportunity” angle for software
09:32 AI agents + Salesforce seat dynamic
10:42 Shopify: record Q4 revenue + buyback, stock drops
11:32 High-rate market = less forgiving on margins
12:47 Hardware vs software parallels + “store of value” idea
13:39 Micron framed as “gold” of AI hardware
14:19 Crocs pops 20% + lifestyle/identity discussion
15:49 Wrap
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/
View all episodes
By StocktwitsJanuary’s jobs report looked solid on the surface but the big story is the massive revision to 2025 job creation, which sparked debate over how reliable the labor data really is. With CME FedWatch odds shifting toward rates holding steady in June, we break down which sectors could get pressured if rate cuts get delayed (real estate, homebuilders, REITs, smaller companies that rely on debt, and even consumer discretionary names like Amazon — plus Tesla as yields stay elevated).
Then we pivot to the other major theme: AI and the market’s rotation from software into hardware. Marc Andreessen frames the debate — are chips and energy where the value is, and does software get commoditized? We talk through why Micron is reportedly sold out of chips through 2026, while software names like Salesforce and HubSpot have been getting hit and why some investors may be turning impatient only three years into what could be a 30-year AI cycle.
We also cover Shopify’s record Q4 revenue ($3.67B, up 31%) and a $2B buyback, yet the stock still dropped as investors focused on margin pressure and AI investment costs. Finally, we tie it together with a simple takeaway: in high-rate uncertainty, investors tend to prefer “tangible” returns and that’s why AI hardware can trade like a perceived store of value versus software that still needs proof points.
Sign Up to join Stocktwits! https://stocktwits.com/
Subscribe to Our Channels:
Stocktwits: https://www.youtube.com/@stocktwits
The best of investing social, news, trends, and community driven market chatter in one place.
Cryptotwits: https://www.youtube.com/@CryptotwitsOfficial
Crypto news, narratives, and chart talk to keep you ahead of the next big move.
True Odds: https://www.youtube.com/@True_Odds-ST
Where prediction markets meet sports odds, sharp takes on what the lines are saying, what the market is pricing in, and how real time sentiment can shift the probability.
Stocktwits Clips: https://www.youtube.com/@StocktwitsClips
Quick hits and the best moments, bite-sized clips you can watch anytime.
Boardroom Exclusives: https://www.youtube.com/@BoardroomExclusives
Behind the scenes access and exclusive conversations you won’t find anywhere else.
Ballpark Figures: https://www.youtube.com/@BallparkFigures-ST
Big picture numbers, market context, and the stats that actually matter, made simple.
Newsletters:
Cryptotwits Newsletter: https://cryptotwits.stocktwits.com/
Your home base for what’s trending in crypto—top stories, heat-check sentiment, and the conversations driving coins, narratives, and the next rotation.
Want to know what this means for your money? Follow The Daily Rip 👉 https://thedailyrip.stocktwits.com/
Other Socials: https://linktr.ee/stocktwits_
Chapters:
00:00 Intro + January jobs headline
00:31 130K jobs added; unemployment around 4.3%
01:01 Massive 2025 revision: 584K to 181K
01:19 Are these numbers reliable?
01:59 Shutdown delays + private data (cuts/ADP) vs headline
02:53 FedWatch shift: June “hold” odds jump
03:16 Who gets hurt if rate cuts get delayed?
03:52 Rate-sensitive watchlist: housing, small caps, discretionary, Tesla
04:13 Potential upside: international diversification (UK/Asia)
04:47 AI storyline: rotation from software to hardware
05:14 Marc Andreessen clip: where is AI value accruing?
06:01 Micron sold out through 2026; software names pressured
06:53 Is the market too impatient with software?
07:23 AI disruption question: improve vs obsolete
08:08 “Generational buying opportunity” angle for software
09:32 AI agents + Salesforce seat dynamic
10:42 Shopify: record Q4 revenue + buyback, stock drops
11:32 High-rate market = less forgiving on margins
12:47 Hardware vs software parallels + “store of value” idea
13:39 Micron framed as “gold” of AI hardware
14:19 Crocs pops 20% + lifestyle/identity discussion
15:49 Wrap
Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/