Aurora Cannabis Inc (TSX:ACB) (OTCQB:ACBFF) (FRA:21P) is expected to hit $11 a share again, according toCanaccord Genuity Group Analyst Matt Bottomley. He published last week citing “the coming together of two industry giants”. He suggests “After consolidating MedReleaf into our model, our FY2019 revenue forecast increases to $512M (from $336M) and EBITDA increases to $171M (from $114M).”
James West: Hey there, welcome back to Midas Letter Live. My guest in this segment is Matt Bottomley, who’s been here a few times before. He’s the equity analyst at Canaccord Genuity. Matt, welcome back.
Matt Bottomley: Good to see you again, James.
James West: Matt, you recently published on Aurora Cannabis, and kind of a timely story in that they’ve just completed their merger with MedReleaf. So that puts 386 million MedReleaf shares in the wind, so to speak.
Matt Bottomley: Right. So yeah, I mean, this has been a deal that was announced maybe a month or two ago, so it’s been a long time coming, I think. I think M&A is to be expected in this space, and now we’ve combined arguably by infrastructure built and some other metrics, probably the number two and the number four name in the space by size into what could be the largest entity, now. So currently, Canopy and Aurora are certainly the leaders by market cap and many other metrics.
James West: Okay. So is Aurora now the biggest by market cap than even Canopy? Or are they more or less at the same level?
Matt Bottomley: Well, I mean, they’re trading at similar levels right now. Canopy is trading a bit higher on an absolute basis, but I think if you look at the recreational market, potential brand awareness – although branding is going to be quite challenging for all these LPs – how many provinces LPs are in, built infrastructure, Canopy is definitely the largest company in the market. But I think that when you look at the medical side of things, we have Aurora that’s, I think, acquired two of the top three names in the space when it comes to medical, that being CanniMed, now MedReleaf. I believe CannTrust is another quality name, as well.
So I’m not forecasting any future M&A on that front when it comes to what Aurora might be doing on its medical side, but I think they clearly have the number one spot by size and scale, and potentially expertise, when it comes to the medical side of things – which is likely going to get higher pricing over the long term in terms of retail pricing. It’s likely going to have a very compelling growth profile as well. I think we’re probably only 30, 40 percent ramped up of our medical patient base in Canada. And when it comes to the international opportunity, which a lot of these LPs are getting into, Aurora is still a top three name when it comes to international exposure, and with medical expertise – b