On Friday 21 February 2025, Professor Johannes Waardenburg gave the Middle East Centre’s Friday seminar Biography: Professor JST Waardenburg teaches the general history of the Arab world at the IULM in Milan. As a

historian, he specialises in the period of the Ba‘th party in power in 20th century Syria. In 2021 he published two

volumes with the Nallino Institut in Rome, ‘La Siria contemporanea : ridisegnando la carta del Vicino Oriente’, in

which he describes the transformations of the state economy in Syria and the diverse international backing the

As‘ad family has enjoyed.

Abstract: With the fall of the al-Asad dynasty in Syria in the early hours of Sunday 8th December 2024, nearly

fourteen years after the start of the Arab Spring, a question arises: Has the warning given by Bashshar al-Asad in

his speech at Damascus University in the autumn of 2005 come true? Have his departure and the breakdown of

al-muqāwamah wa-l-ṣumūd – identified commonly as the strategy of resistance – really brought chaos to the

region? If that is not the case, why did the decisive actors keep him in power in Syria for approximatively another

20 years after he made that presentation? Imagining al-Asad bluffed while he felt the whole international

community was after him in the 2005 follow-up to the murder of Rafīq al-Ḥarīrī, the Prime Minister who oversaw

Lebanon’s reconstruction*, why did no one at the time call his bluff out? Rather, looking at the remarkably rapid

reintroduction of Bashshar al-Asad to the international scene after 2005, this presentation will try to assess

critically what the chaos was that everyone was afraid of in the event of the al-Asads falling then. Why does this

same chaos seem manageable now? Have Western actors together with Turkey and the Gulf countries simply

studied the regional setup better, or might the incidence of Israel’s forever war strategy have been a decisive

factor for others to make a shift unthinkable until recently, for the sake of the future of the region.

*To clarify: at 23:03 & 24:08 in the recording, the specification of Rafīq al-Ḥarīrī's title (of Prime Minister) should

not be understood as referring to his institutional role at the time of his assassination on 14th February 2005. As

he didn't occupy that office anymore back then. al-Ḥarīrī had resigned on 20th October 2004 and a government

led by ʿUmar Karāmī had been set up less than a week later on 26th of October.

Political strategist and public opinion researcher, Dr Dahlia Scheindlin, shares her analysis of public opinion surveys before and during the war in Gaza. Israelis have shown increasingly hardline, right-wing, nationalist trends in public opinion surveys in recent years, leading to lower support for peace, or faith that any democratic-oriented solution to the conflict is possible. Have October 7 and the war in Gaza changed attitudes? Which trends have displayed continuity, which public attitudes are new, and what kind of future do Israelis support? An analysis of surveys before and during the war shows that Israelis continue to hold hardline attitudes, but they are deeply divided by identity, religion, age and ideology, and angry at their government. They are also responsive to changes in circumstances, and there are still opportunities to re-build support for peace.

A panel with Kamran Matin (University of Sussex), Yasmeen al-Eryani (Tampere Peace Research Institute) and Neil Ketchley (University of Oxford). Chaired by Raihan Ismail (University of Oxford).

A Women’s Rights Research Seminar (WRRS) with Dr Nafiseh Sharifi, Research Fellow at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter. Dr Nafiseh Sharifi is a Research Fellow at the Institute of Arab and Islamic Studies, University of Exeter, and earned her PhD from SOAS, University of London. Her work on gender and sexuality in Iran is detailed in her book ‘Female Bodies and Sexualities in Iran and the Search for Defiance’, grounded in extensive ethnographic research conducted with two generations of Iranian women in Tehran.

Her current work expands on these themes by examining shifting masculinities, cultural norms, and sexual attitudes among Tehran’s 1990s generation, drawing on in-depth discussions with both men and women. Dr Sharifi’s research offers insights into the complex gender dynamics within Iranian society and makes a significant contribution to academic debates on gender and sexuality in Iran and the Middle East.

Chaired by Dr Maryam Alemzadeh, Fellow at the Middle East Centre.

A talk from Dr Richard Barltrop, Visiting Senior Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, reflecting on the current war in Sudan and exploring lessons from the longer history of peacemaking in Sudan and other recent civil wars. Bio:

Richard is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre. His research is on contemporary international approaches to peacemaking, and why peace processes fail or succeed, with a particular focus on Yemen, Sudan and South Sudan, and considering other examples.

Richard specialises in work on mediation, peace processes and peacebuilding, and international approaches to conflict, development and peace, focusing on the Middle East and Africa. Since 2001 he has worked for the UN Development Programme in Iraq, Libya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Yemen and regionally, and for the UN peacekeeping mission in South Sudan and the UN political mission in Yemen.

He is the author of Darfur and the International Community: The Challenges of Conflict Resolution in Sudan (IB Tauris/Bloomsbury, 2011/2015) and was a visiting fellow at Durham University in 2015. He has a DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford.

Abstract:

In April Sudan will enter the third year of a war that has caused enormous harm to lives, has been ruinous for the country, and shows no sign of ending. The war was unexpected; it is different from previous wars in Sudan’s conflict-ridden modern history; and it is occurring at a time when international politics is not favourable for concerted external and multilateral action to bring about and support peace. For Sudanese and outsiders, an immediate priority is how can lives be protected and suffering minimised. Beyond this, a fundamental question is peace: how can the war be ended and a lasting peace be established?

This seminar explores what lessons should be drawn from the longer history of peacemaking in Sudan and from the experience and outcomes of peacemaking efforts in other civil wars in recent times. From this, three main recommendations emerge for Sudanese and external actors. The recommendations concern: (i) the need in the immediate and near term for external actors to push for a ceasefire and to accept the relative benefit of the Sudanese Armed Forces having some ascendancy in the war; (ii) the need to take a long-term approach to peace process and peacebuilding; and (iii) the need to prioritise and support the development of Sudanese vision for and ownership of a peace process for Sudan.

A talk from Joseph Bahout, Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs (IFI) at the American University of Beirut (AUB) and Associate Professor of Practice in Political Studies. In this talk, Joseph Bahout, Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs (IFI) at the American University of Beirut (AUB) and Associate Professor of Practice in Political Studies, shares his analysis of the current political situation in Lebanon and Syria.

In this talk, Dr Klug and Professor Lavi explore the following questions, among others: What useful role can definitions play in this controversy? Can the IHRA definition perform this role? Does the JDA give better guidance? Since October 7 2023, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has led to public protests against Israel and

demands for an immediate ceasefire. In this connection, controversy over antisemitism on campuses across the

globe, including Oxford, has intensified. At the heart of the controversy is the definition of antisemitism published

by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA). The definition has been adopted by numerous

states and institutions, including Oxford University. The seminar will raise the following issues, among others:

What useful role can definitions play in this controversy? Can the IHRA definition perform this role? Is it, in

practice, used in a partisan way? Does the Jerusalem Declaration on Antisemitism (JDA) give better guidance?

More fundamentally, can a clear line be drawn between antisemitic and non-antisemitic critique of Israel, or is

there a deep ambiguity in the phenomenon itself?

Mouin Rabbani and Hasmik Egian discuss the impact the crisis in Gaza has had on the Arab world, with a particular focus on the UN Security Council. Mouin Rabbani, Co-Editor of Jadaliyya, examines the extent to which regional dynamics played a role in the 7 October 2023 attacks, the position of Hamas within the coalition known as the Axis of Resistance, and how the Gaza crisis has influenced the region’s politics during the past year.

Hasmik Egian, former Director of the UN Security Council Affairs Division, explores the role played by Arab States on the UN Security Council during their terms as non-permanent Council members, and what impact they may have had on issues related to the Middle East.

Professor Naghmeh Sohrabi, Charles (Corky) Goodman Professor of Middle East History and Director for Research at the Crown Center for Middle East Studies, Brandeis University, describes the role of the family in the 1979 Revolution in Iran.

Professor Amaney A. Jamal discusses findings from surveys in Gaza and the West Bank, as the 46th Annual George Antonius Memorial Lecture.

Guest Speaker: Professor Amaney A. Jamal (Dean of Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, University of Princeton)

Chair: Professor Eugene Rogan (University of Oxford)