Rabobank's global strategist has described the ramping up of attacks between Israel and Iran as "the final event" between the two countries.
Michael Every says the conflict between the nations is "no longer theatre, no longer a signalling mechanism", but rather an "attempt by Israel to take out Iran's nuclear program and potentially remove the regime entirely, or at least weaken it to the point where it falls."
However, Mr Every says the global impact of Israel's attacks on Iran have been minimal in terms of its exports so far - mainly because of sanctions targeting oil sales. But the domestic impacts have been significant. He says oil refineries and a gas field in Iran have been hit by missiles, and there are anecdotal reports that petrol has already run out in the capital, Tehran.
He says the biggest risk is that if the conflict goes so far that the Iranian regime weakens to the point where it will decide to mine the Strait of Hormuz, or even threaten to mine it, which could have massive implications for traffic through the small gateway. It's a potential move Mr Every says Iran could take if it decides "if I'm going down, you're coming with me."
Mr Every says the conflict is now existential for both sides, in that Israel have "openly said that they cannot allow the regime (Iran) to remain in place and develop a nuclear weapon, and it's existential for Iran, because if they feel they're going to fall, that's the end of the revolution." and it's likely to be prolonged.
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