Late on March 3, the Trump administration announced that it would be cutting aid to Ukraine, at least for the time being. This video explores the consequences of the decision, what the Kremlin might be up to here, and what motivated Trump to take such a step.

0:00 Trump Pauses Aid

0:40 The Military Situation without U.S. Aid

4:10 Trump's Plan

7:29 Russia's Gambit

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

By Kremlin.ru:

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73995

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75909

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073

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Video at Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWUqK-M6Dlw

Check out my book "How Ukraine Survived": https://amzn.to/47gnlEf. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at https://amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)

The general public seems to believe that the United States is at serious risk of withdrawing from NATO. Given the media discourse, it is easy to understand why. However, NATO itself does not think that this is likely. I traveled to Brussels to better grasp their perspective. This is the story of NATO's history with trying to keep the United States in, and what might happen if Trump leaves.

0:00 Public vs. Elite Beliefs about NATO

3:07 NATO's Designing Principles

9:37 What NATO Says versus What NATO Does

17:31 NATO's Political Benefits

26:11 Military Benefits and Article 5

28:56 Exploiting Comparative Advantages

32:45 Economies of Scale

34:55 Military Coordination

37:20 Force Multiplication

38:40 The Logistics of Leaving

40:57 Domestic Legal Barriers

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) or NATO visual information does not imply or constitute DoD or NATO endorsement.

Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):

By Government of Netherlands:

https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/photo-details/P-029790~2F00-29

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

By Kremlin.ru:

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56351

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73187

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73995

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073

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Video at Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QooUTuqf2A

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We live in an era where multiple major world leaders have the perception of behaving irrationality. How should the opponent of such a leader negotiate in such cases? It turns out, what makes the situation more interesting is how a rational leader should behave if others think he may be irrational. This is known as the "madman theory" of international relations. Today, we take a deep look into it and see that the benefits of being a perceived madman are fleeting.

0:00 Irrational Threats in the Modern Era

3:10 Threats and Escalation in International Relations

5:16 How Rational Actors Make Threats

7:16 Negotiating with a Possible Madman

10:06 Problems with the Madman Theory

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

By Kremlin.ru:

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55006

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58017

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68785

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69101

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73585

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73648

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75623

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073

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Video at Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGO1gvNgG6k

Go to https://ground.news/linesonmaps to stay fully informed on what's happening around the world. Subscribe before month's end and you'll receive 40% off unlimited access!

It has been three years since the war in Ukraine started. Today, we will look at why the war is still ongoing and what may be in store with negotiations. The process will start broadly, focusing on why a generic war happen and how a generic war could be resolved before getting to the finer points between Russia and Ukraine.

0:00 The War, Three Years Later

5:00 Why War Is Rare

17:24 RUS/UKR: Disagreement over Outcome

25:15 RUS/UKR: NATO Entry

31:01 RUS/UKR: Entrenchments and Power Shifts

36:31 RUS/UKR: Putin's Private Benefits

42:54 How Wars End, The Easy Way

52:25 How Wars End, The Hard Way

59:32 Peace Plan Problems: Production Limits

1:04:50 Peace Plan Problems: U.S. Credibility

1:06:48 Peace Plan Problems: Russian Beliefs

1:09:38 Peace Plan Problems: Europe's Response

1:14:56 Peace Plan Problems: Long-Run Enforcement

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

By Kremlin.ru:

http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71452

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71891

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73083

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73255

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73648

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Video at Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIPF31KU6xo

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Quietly, the pace of the war between Ukraine and Russia has been dictated by entrenchments over the last two years. This video explores the historical evolution of the problem and the predicament that Ukraine currently finds itself in. Much of the narrative regarding a peace plan involves freezing the frontlines, followed by heavy investment into fortifications. However, this timeline is backward. First come the fortifications, then comes the freezing of the frontline. Until Ukraine can develop such entrenchments, its bargaining power will be significantly weakened.

0:00 Frontlines and the Pace of the War

3:40 Russia's Retreat from Kherson

5:57 The Surovikin Line

9:03 Today's Bargaining Problem

14:58 Solving the Frontline Problem

Check out my book "How Ukraine Survived": https://amzn.to/47gnlEf. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at https://amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Media licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 DE (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/de):

By Bundesarchiv:

https://www.bild.bundesarchiv.de/dba/de/search/?query=Bild+183-R69173

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

By Armyinform.com.ua:

https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/12/07/herson-pid-vorozhymy-obstrilamy/

https://armyinform.com.ua/2024/03/07/zuby-drakona-betonni-ukryttya-ta-transheyi-na-zaporizkomu-napryamku-tryvaye-zvedennya-oboronnyh-fortyfikaczij/

By Kremlin.ru:

http://kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords/78/events/50329

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62275

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/65973

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71891

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73255

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73732

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73995

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73997

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75909

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073

By Mil.ru:

https://structure.mil.ru/management/info.htm?id=11854308@SD_Employee

https://z.mil.ru/spec_mil_oper/media/video/watch.htm?id=17645@morfVideoAudioFile

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Video at Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJ3UB3iSd2o

Check out my book "How Ukraine Survived": https://amzn.to/47gnlEf. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at https://amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)

Ukraine's pathway to NATO membership will take a long time. If we lived in an alternate universe where membership was immediate, then Ukraine would be in a much better position. However, there is a consolation prize to be had. The longer the expected wait to NATO membership, the better a deal Ukraine should be able to extract out of Russia in the present. This video explores the coercive bargaining logic, with a healthy dose of lines on maps.

0:00 Ukraine's NATO Membership Bid

1:54 What Russia and Ukraine Are Really Fighting Over

6:50 The Current Strategic Environment

8:30 When Will Ukraine Be Able to Join NATO?

13:08 How Much Territory Can Ukraine Retain?

17:29 How the Trump Administration Should Handle Peace Talks

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

By President.gov.ua:

http://www.president.gov.ua/photos/official-photos

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/president/biografiya

By Zoda.gov.ua:

https://www.zoda.gov.ua/news/21782/vistup-prezidenta-ukrajini-na-plenarnomu-zasidanni-samitu-initsiativi-shidne-partnerstvo.html

By Premier.gov.ru:

http://www.premier.gov.ru/visits/world/8304/events/8303/photolents.html

By Khamenei.ir:

https://farsi.khamenei.ir/photo-album?id=55988

By Kremlin.ru:

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49702

http://kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords/78/events/50329

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/61517

http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/424/events/61936

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62277

http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/regions/CR/events/62560

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68605

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73083

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73084

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73255

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73648

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73732

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73995

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74365

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75623

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76173

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Video at Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7xoj1VYJnM

Check out "Game Theory 101: The Complete Textbook": https://amzn.to/40fD43U. You can also read it for free by signing up for a Kindle Unlimited trial at https://amzn.to/3QMsBr8. (I use affiliate links, meaning I earn a commission when you make a transaction through them. Even if you read for free, you are still supporting the channel.)

President Trump wants to buy Greenland. This video explores how such a deal is possible---almost anything can happen for the right price. However, plausibility is another story. We investigate the implicit political costs of such a deal to the United States, the low strategic value added it would bring, and the logical problems of trying to buy it for its resources wealth. Oh, and maybe there will be a cameo of lines on maps regarding a forced sale of the island.

0:00 Trump Wants to Buy Greenland

2:04 Why a Deal Is Possible

8:03 The Implicit Costs of Purchasing Greenland

11:02 The Low Strategic Value Added of Greenland

13:59 Resource Wealth and the Direct Value of Greenland

19:40 Coercing Denmark to Force a Sale

The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Media copyright European Union:

https://newsroom.consilium.europa.eu/permalink/253750

https://newsroom.consilium.europa.eu/events/20221001-president-michel-meets-prime-minister-of-denmark/136846-president-michel-meets-prime-minister-of-denmark-20221001

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

By Kremlin.ru:

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58041

http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76073

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Video at Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjCwQsuBUls