Does Bill Simmons make super forecasts? Let's look at his NFL podcast preview and see. We'll look at:

1/ Finding good value and not obvious winners.

2/ Stay away when things are too hard.

3/ Mean reversion when randomness abounds.

4/ SITG.

5/ Invert (always invert!).

6/ What are the full range of outcomes?

Life lessons from (just the early part) of http://amzn.to/2bYAKGb, by Gene Kranz, flight director for the NASA Apollo missions. What does Kranz have to teach us?

1/ you will never be ready

2/ the value of role play

3/ pattern recognition

4/ don’t just do something, sit there.

5/ 10k hours and the support you need

An investigation of things Michael Mauboussin told Barry Ritholtz in their Bloomberg podcast. The big ideas:

1/ Know the pot and the payout.

2/ Incentives matter.

3/ The inside and outside views.

4/ Wonderful storytelling machines.

Intro: BenSound.com

Outro: K-391

A digital version to read: http://amzn.to/2bvKhpH

From a person who walked the walk and talked the talk. Four ideas from Grove.

1/ Be there to know what’s going on.

2/ Have a Devil’s advocate.

3/ Decentralized command is a powerful tool.

4/ People are involved and people have emotions.

Intro: BenSound.com

Outro: The Creek by Topher Mohr

Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2aRqYnm

Notes: https://thewaiterspad.com/2016/08/17/10267/

What does the best American college coach have to teach us?

1/ The value of hustle and the grind.

2/ Want success? Increase the denominator.

3/ You'll need some luck.

4/ Imitate to start.

5/ Focus on your most important things.

Intro: BenSound.com

Outro: K-391

Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2blaUyu

Note: This was more a freestyle, rambling episode. The tighter format will be back.

1/ Scratch your own itch. Laura Brockington just wanted to play soccer. She was motivated and invested.

2/ Easier now than ever. New things will always be hard. Outcomes will always be unclear. But it’s never been easier to try.

3/ Make it easy for someone else to say ‘yes’.In an upcoming episode we’ll dive into one of the best books on this, Getting to Yes.

4/ Surf well. If you know how to surf and are one of the first at the beach, you can ride the waves all day long. Don’t lose that advantage by getting mired in the shallows.

Intro: BenSound.com

Outro: K-391

What happened to Yahoo? Taking notes from Kara Swisher and Eric Jackson, there were five things I noticed:

1/ Beware of executives that succeed because of rising tides and tailwinds.

2/ Don’t forget about the MIT

3/ Built up experiences (or read books for a shortcut) to help you recognize patterns.

4/ Know your strengths and your weaknesses. Punt what you don’t do well.

5/ Reduce stakeholders to get more options. You need a long runway to experiment. the more career capital you have, easier cutting down will be.

Intro: BenSound.com

Outro:K-391

Inspiration: http://www.recode.net/2016/7/29/12314580/yahoo-verizon-kara-swisher-marissa-mayer-recode-podcast & http://www.recode.net/2016/8/1/12339366/yahoo-verizon-aol-deal-explained-podcast

Inspiration from Jack Schwager's podcast with Barry Ritholtz. Here we talk about:

1/ Plan B (Kahneman and Fast & Furious)

2/ Rising tides and Buffett's ducks

3/ Patience for fat pitches. What Louis CK hit but Mark Zuckerberg missed.

Intro: BenSound.com

Outro: K-391

Another Warren Buffett episode. This one focuses on his early (pre-1976) writings. We’ll examine:

1/ How Buffett used red flags to tell people when to switch investments.

2/ How Buffett focused like a flashlight.

3/ Buffett’s advice for “turning over a lot of rock,” and three ways to encourage your search.

4/ Buffett was like a pirate. A good haul and he’d be rich, a poor captain and the crew could take over. These are win win situations.

5/ Buffett knew he was dealing with people, and acted accordingly.

6/ Ducks? Yes.

Intro: BenSound.com

Outro: K-391

Inspiration: http://amzn.to/2aqi4ya

Donation: cash.me/$mikedariano

Neville Isdell was the former chairman and CEO of Coca Cola. I found his book on accident, happily.

Isdell's story isn't well known - or at least to me - and so his 'off the beaten track' experiences are extra valuable. What helped a kid born in Ireland, who grows up in Africa, starts his career in white South Africa and goes on to work in the Philippines and German succeed? There were five themes in my notes:

1/ Isdell was motivated by more than money. Once we take care of our basic needs (not our basic wants) we can focus on only the most important things.

2/ Isdell was "there." Being there is crucial to certain jobs.

3/ Isdell married the right person. I loved the story he told about the trip to their honeymoon destination.

4/ Isdell had clever red flags (though not as clever as David Lee Roth, who makes an appearance).

5/ Isdell ran red team meetings.

Intro: BenSound.com

Outro: K-391

Inspiration: http://amzn.to/29oOXcD

Donation: http://cash.me/$mikedariano