MiningWeekly.com Audio Articles

Chemicals and energy company Sasol has signed a long-term contract for the supply of 69 MW of renewable energy to its Sasolburg site in the Free State – the first of several agreements Sasol intends finalising in the coming months as it secures the renewable energy supply required to produce green hydrogen.

The power purchase agreement is between Sasol South Africa and Msenge Emoyeni Wind Farm, located near the town of Bedford, in the Eastern Cape.

Johannesburg- and New York-listed Sasol has prioritised five sustainable development goals to ensure that its business is environmentally, socially and economically sustainable.

“Sasol is undertaking renewables at scale while growing new value pools, such as green hydrogen, ensuring competitive and sustainable returns,” Sasol energy business executive VP Priscillah Mabelane stated in a media release to Engineering News & Mining Weekly.

“Sasol will progressively shift its feedstock away from coal and towards gas as a transitionary feedstock, and then towards green hydrogen and sustainable carbon over the longer term,” Mabelane added.

The Msenge project is one of several similar projects on which Sasol is focusing to complement its overall renewable energy programme procurement process. Msenge will come online in early 2024, subject to final regulatory and financial approvals.

Its renewable energy will enable Sasol to produce green hydrogen that can be supplied to customers to enable them to decarbonise their operations or for Sasol’s own operations to produce sustainable products such as green ammonia or methanol.

A key decarbonisation enabler, green hydrogen has been prioritised by the South African government, which has drawn up a Hydrogen Society Roadmap.

Sectors that will benefit include hard-to-abate industries such as transport, refining of metals and cement, heat generation and back-up power supply amid Sasol helping to lead South Africa’s just energy transition and the development of a hydrogen economy.

Sasol is committed to reducing absolute greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its South African operations by at least 30% by 2030, off a 2017 baseline, and renewable energy is seen as a key lever for reducing Sasol’s GHG emissions and moving the company towards producing products in a more sustainable manner.

Originally developed by Windlab South Africa, the wind farm was acquired and further developed. It will be taken to financial close by African Clean Energy Developments (ACED), which represents a consortium consisting of African Infrastructure Investment Managers, through their IDEAS Fund and Reatile Renewables.

Rand Merchant Bank, a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, has partnered the consortium as sole mandated lead arranger for the project.

The signing of the power purchase agreement with Msenge and the ACED-IDEAS-Reatile consortium comes after Sasol issued a request for proposal in terms of its renewable energy programme, for the supply of renewable energy to its green hydrogen facility at Sasolburg.

Diversified miner South32 achieved a 12% year-on-year increase in group copper equivalent production for the first half of the 2023 financial year on the back of recent investments in copper and low-carbon aluminium capacity.

"Group copper equivalent production increased . . . as we benefitted from transactions that have repositioned our portfolio toward metals critical for a low-carbon future.

“Australia Manganese also achieved record half-year production, while Cerro Matoso successfully commissioned the Ore Sorting and Mechanical Ore Concentration project, underpinning a 15-year extension to the mining contract,” comments CEO Graham Kerr.

However, the group also reports that it expects to record a build in working capital of about $100-million for the six months ended December 31, 2022, mainly as a result of an increase in inventories.

“This impact is most acute in our aluminium value chain in Southern Africa due to ongoing shipping delays,” it notes.

South32’s Hillside Aluminium operation, in South Africa, increased production by 1% to 362 000 t for the six months under review, with the smelter having continued to test its maximum technical capacity, despite the impact of increased loadshedding – rolling blackouts implemented by South African State-owned power utility Eskom.

The operation’s full-year production guidance remains unchanged at 720 000 t.

The group notes, however, that, while the operation’s aluminium sales had increased by 8% in the three months to December 31, inventory remained above target, as two shipments had to be delayed to January this year owing to shipping delays at Richards Bay.

Further, Mozal Aluminium, in which South32 holds a 63.7% interest, produced 182 000 t of aluminium in the six months ended December 31. This was 2% lower year-on-year, as operations in Potroom A were suspended in November owing to a fatality.

The operation’s full-year production guidance of 370 000 t, however, remains unchanged.

Looking ahead, South32 says it is well positioned to capture the benefit of improved market conditions, with further expected production growth in the second half of the 2023 financial year and an ongoing focus on cost management to mitigate inflationary pressures.

"Despite industry wide inflationary pressures, we expect operating unit costs for the first half to be in line with or below guidance for the 2023 financial year at the majority of our operations. We remain focused on delivering safe and stable operational performance, and efficiencies to mitigate cost pressures and capture higher margins as markets improve,” says Kerr.

OPERATIONAL REVIEW

South32 reported an 8% increase in quarterly alumina volumes as Worsley Alumina, in Australia, and Brazil Alumina operated above nameplate capacity.

Meanwhile, over the half-year to December, a 15% increase was recorded in aluminium production overall, with a 50% uplift in low-carbon aluminium following the company’s acquisition of an additional shareholding in Mozal Aluminium, in Mozambique, and the restart of the Brazil Aluminium smelter.

Copper production at Sierra Gorda, in Chile, also increased over the half-year, delivering 45 000 t of payable copper equivalent production.

Further, the Cerro Matoso operation in Columbia commissioned an ore sorting and mechanical ore concentration project, which is expected to support higher nickel production in the second half of the 2023 financial year.

In Australia, Australia Manganese achieved record half-year production, supporting a 7% increase in total manganese production, while Illawarra Metallurgical Coal delivered a 17% increase in quarterly metallurgical coal production, with improved volumes and labour productivity as South32 finalised a new industrial agreement at the Appin mine.

Despite these successes, the production guidance at the company's Cannington operation, in Australia, has been revised lower by 11% owing to lower mill throughput and labour availability impacting mining rates, while product...

Transnet could be a major disaster to the South African economy if everybody does not get involved, commentator Michael Avery warned in his column in Business Day on Monday on Transnet Freight Rail and South Africa’s lagging coal exports.

“We must be sharply focused on Transnet and its performance – it is a serious risk to our whole economy,” Intellidex consulting house chair Stuart Theobald concurred in a separate column in the same newspaper on the same day.

In response to SAfm Sunrise radio presenter Stephen Grootes, XMP Consulting senior coal analyst Xavier Prévost said that the claim doing the rounds that South Africa is going to run short of coal because of the exportation of coal is not true.

The coal sold to Eskom and the coal sold on the export market are two different types of coal, Prévost explained.

Supply is not the problem. It is the transporting of the coal that is the main problem.

In the same radio presentation, Sereti Resources CEO Mike Teke told Grootes: “Had we been able to do at least around 78-million tons with trains, there would still be more demand for the coal simply because Europe is going through the war and the coal that was coming out of Colombia has reduced substantially along with quite a number of countries switching because of high gas prices."

The Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2021 exported only 58.72-million tons of coal, its lowest volume since 1996. In the first quarter of 2022, the coal price breached the $400/t, mainly boosted by European demand. But South Africa has been unable to gain the full benefit of the solid coal price because of government failure, which is preventing the fiscus from collecting a larger tax volume.

“Currently, we do not have a sufficient volume of coal for export owing to Transnet problems constraining exports from the Richards Bay Coal Terminal,” Teke, the head of a 91% black-owned and -controlled coal mining company, added to Grootes.

Grootes: It must be more expensive to use trucks than railways?

Teke: If you look at the coal prices, it is still warranted to take on the extra expense of trucking.

One truck carries around 35 t and one train 8 300 t. Richards Bay Coal Terminal is one of the leading coal export terminals in the world, but trucks are taking coal to other ports, including the Port of Maputo in Mozambique.

Grootes: Is it impossible for you to keep up with demand?

Teke: To a greater extent, yes. If you look at the Richards Bay Coal Terminal, the nameplate capacity is 91-million tons. Exports have never reached that capacity level. We’ve done 77-million tons at its highest.

This is all because of lagging rail capacity. Richards Bay Coal Terminal is owned by the private sector and Transnet by the public sector, which across so many fronts is failing dismally.

Why did coal exports fall so dramatically in 2021? In a word, Transnet, is Theobald’s response.

General freight volumes have slumped to their lowest since World War 2, Avery wrote, quoting Stellenbosch logistics and former Transnet insider Jan Havenga.

On balance sheet stress, Avery spoke of revaluations at Transnet getting to the point of being suspicious.

“A Marshall Plan of sorts is needed,” Avery quotes Havenga as advocating.

A social media campaign set on halting coal exports through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal to purportedly alleviate Eskom’s loadshedding has been noted with concern by Minerals Council South Africa.

“This campaign is not based on any facts and instead relies on outright fallacious allegations that Eskom’s inability to keep South Africa adequately supplied with electricity is allegedly because of the country exporting coal,” the council noted in a release to Mining Weekly.

“This is a wrong diagnosis of the challenges Eskom confronts. Eskom’s low energy availability factor, which is the cause of loadshedding, is because nearly half of its coal-fired power station fleet is out of operation due to a high number of breakdowns and planned maintenance. Eskom is not short of coal and continues to receive all the coal it expects from its contracted suppliers,” the council added.

The State power utility has 31.8 days of stockpiled coal at its power plants against a required minimum of 20 days, Eskom’s national spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha has confirmed. Further, Eskom receives contracted and expected deliveries of coal continuously.

Eskom’s problems were, the council said, fundamentally due to its ageing coal-fired power station fleet and the frequent breakdowns and poor reliability of certain power stations, and had nothing to do with any shortages of coal.

Protagonists of coal export curtailment should rather focus on helping Eskom improve the reliability of the power station fleet.

Any calls to disrupt coal exports, the council warned, would result in:

disrupted mining operations and potential job losses if the disruptions are protracted;

uncertainty among international investors;

damage to the perception of South Africa as a reliable source of commodities;

legal challenges for coal exporters unable to fulfill contractual obligations; and

reduced taxes and royalty revenues flowing to the State.

Eskom, in its 2020/21 Integrated Report, indicated that it burnt 105-million tonnes of coal. The utility’s stated intention of decommissioning 24 100 MW of coal-generated electricity beyond 2030 would reduce Eskom’s coal demand to below 50-million tonnes annually.

The export market is critical to maintain jobs in coal mining, which employs 91 000 people, and thousands more people employed in rail, road and port logistics jobs. In 2022, South Africa exported coal worth R215.5-billion.

PRIVATE SECTOR POWER PROJECTS

Earlier this month, the council estimated that the private sector in South Africa has a pipeline of 9 GW of energy projects in solar, wind, gas and battery storage.

By expediting those projects and reducing reliance on Eskom, the power utility could, the council said, turn its focus to the critical maintenance and refurbishment necessary on some of its power plants.

The mining industry alone has a pipeline of 7.5 GW of energy projects on standby or in development, which are worth more than R150-billion combined, and 3 GW of these projects are expected to be completed by the end of 2024.

The mining sector consumes about 14% of Eskom’s total electricity output; adding smelters and refineries, the mineral sector consumes about 30% of Eskom’s output, therefore, Eskom will remain a source of baseload electricity supply for the mining industry nonetheless.

NEW AUSTRALIAN REQUIREMENTS EXPECTED

Meanwhile, new requirements that force Australian coal companies to reserve a percentage of their output exclusively for use in Australia are set to be unveiled, Australian media reported on Friday.

The requirements are being put in place to ensure the state has enough coal to fire its power stations.

Currently, some coal mining companies are forced to set aside coal for the state’s energy needs while others are not, with New South Wales (NSW) Treasurer Matt Kean saying the planned new intervention would help to even up what he described as an imbalance.

It is expected that orders requiring companies to provide a possible 7% to 10% of their o...

Mining Weekly Editor Martin Creamer unpacks the 9 GW of various energy projects in the private sector; Africa's position to export hydrogen; the now contained tailings breach at Petra Diamonds Williamson mine.

India has opted for hydrogen fuel-cell heavy-duty mine truck mobility in a green initiative that will have platinum group metals (PGMs) miners applauding.

This is because the clean emission-free power will come from proton exchange membrane, or PEM, technology, which is PGMs-enabled.

Indian multinational conglomerate Adani Group, headquartered in Ahmedabad, is the latest champion in the fight against climate change destruction, with Adani Enterprises Limited (AEL), Canada’s Ballard Power Systems and Ashok Leyland teaming up to develop the pioneering heavy-duty zero-emission hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) for India.

Earlier, Adani unveiled plans to invest $50-billion-plus in green hydrogen, amid growing recognition being given to the contribution of PGMs-linked PEM water electrolysis to zero-emission decarbonisation. On the cards is the production of three-million tons of green hydrogen a year.

Hydrogen, the most abundant element, is a versatile, zero-emission energy carrier with a high energy density. It can also be stored in large quantities and for long periods.

The Hydrogen Council estimates that hydrogen could represent 18% of global energy demand by 2050.

PGMs, which are essential in cleaning up the noxious gases from the internal combustion engine, are now also playing a growing role in the emerging hydrogen economy, in both FCEVs and in water electrolysis to produce green hydrogen.

“If we indeed work together, we can speed up the energy transition and make the green hydrogen economy a reality in the near future,” South Africa’s Higher Education, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Blade Nzimande stated during a just energy transition webinar last month, which was attended by European Commission Joint Research Centre director-general Stephen Quest, UK High Commissioner Antony Phillipson and representatives of neighbouring African States intent on exporting their sunshine in the form of green hydrogen.

Indian and international media reported on Thursday that AEL would lead the planned hydrogen-powered fuel cell mining truck advance, with Ballard providing its FCmove™ fuel cell engine for the hydrogen truck and Ashok Leyland the vehicle platform.

The 55 t truck, with a 200 km working range, will be powered by 120 kW PEM fuel cell technology, which Ballard Power Systems CEO Randy MacEwen described as having rapid refuelling and heavy payload capabilities.

According to Adani Natural Resources CEO and AEL director Vinay Prakash, the project is in alignment with Adani Group chairperson Gautam Adani’s vision to accelerate hydrogen-powered fuel cell technology.

Ashok Leyland CTO Dr Natarajan Saravanan highlighted what he described as Adani’s unwavering dedication to hydrogen as being an opportunity for India to decarbonise.

India’s National Hydrogen Mission is targeting net zero in manufacturing operations by 2035.

SOUTH AFRICA’S ZERO-EMISSION HAULAGE SOLUTION

In South Africa, mining company Anglo American last year launched the large nuGen zero emissions haulage solution (ZEHS) hydrogen-powered mine haul truck – a 220 t truck with a load capacity of 290 t, providing a total laden weight of 510 t.

The ZEHS ecosystem to generate and store hydrogen at the Mogalakwena PGMs mine, in Limpopo, includes a 3.5 MW twin-compressor water electrolyser and hydrogen storage tanks, with 800 kg of capacity at 500 bars of pressure.

The hydrogen dispenser is capable of moving 4 kg of hydrogen a minute at 250 bars of pressure.

The London- and Johannesburg-listed Anglo is intent on decarbonising its entire global fleet of 400 trucks in this way, as well as providing critical supporting refuelling, recharging and hydrogen production infrastructure.

Earlier this month, Nikola Corporation of the US announced the development of a heavy-duty, 700 bar mobile hydrogen fueller of FCEVs.

Nikola CEO Michael Lohscheller spoke of the new refuellers complementing the company’s permanent hydrogen fuelling stations, which are being developed.

WIDESP...

In the past, geopolitics was such that oil and gas rich counties developed faster, but now countries that are able to export their sunshine in the form of hydrogen will be the ones in the pound seats as the world transitions to clean, green energy.

“Africa is an example of a place on our planet that can lead this geopolitical shift,” says Hydrogen South Africa Infrastructure Competence Centre director Professor Dmitri Bessarabov, who was speaking to Mining Weekly in a Zoom interview ahead of the big global International Conference on Electrolysis (ICE 2023), which ­he will be chairing at Sun City from August 27 to September 1. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.)

Hydrogen technologies, Bessarabov noted, have a special relevance for South Africa as most of the platinum group metals (PGMs) that are needed for the related technologies are hosted and mined in South Africa, which also offers excellent sources of renewable energy.

This comes against the background of water electrolysis being poised to make the world a better place, with proton exchange membrane or PEM electrolysis in particular relying on the uplift that South Africa’s PGMs can provide.

Moreover, electrolytic green hydrogen generation, which will be taken to the next level at ICE2023, is also a cornerstone of South Africa’s Hydrogen Society Roadmap, which the Ministry at the forefront of drawing up it up believes can be turned into a near-future reality with proper collaboration.

“If we indeed work together, we can speed up the energy transition and make the green hydrogen economy a reality in the near future,” Higher Education, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Blade Nzimande stated a just energy transition webinar last month.

South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation (PIC) calculates that investment of more than R4.3-trillion would be required. The PIC, which has R2.339-trillion worth of assets under management, has a hydrogen investment strategy aimed at unlocking value through providing early-stage capital for the development of the hydrogen value chain and leveraging off more than 200 hydrogen projects that have already been announced worldwide.

The PIC sees hydrogen as the next frontier in clean energy technology owing to its extensive value chain applications.

In addition, H2Global ­– a market ramp-up instrument that serves as an innovative form of subsidy scheme to smooth out bumps along green hydrogen’s early-mover road – has made a strong call for final investment decisions to be taken on the multiplicity of green hydrogen projects that are already underpinned by memoranda of understanding.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s technical and vocational education and training (TVET) colleges are being enhanced to play a more pivotal role in the rapid expansion of renewable energy generation and the transition away from fossil-fuel dependence.

“In transitioning to the inclusive green hydrogen economy, the TVET ecosystem needs to cultivate transversal skills, develop a knowledge commons for skills and create an enabling, collaborative environment to address local shifts and challenges,” Nzimande told the event amid green hydrogen emerging as an area of huge investment potential.

South Africa has to potential to generate between six-million tonnes and 13-million tonnes of green hydrogen and green hydrogen derivatives by 2050, an output which would require from 140 GW to 300 GW of renewable energy, and the TVET colleges are seen as not only having the potential to empower young people, but also enable workers to transition into the green labour market.

“In short, we need green artisans. That’s the challenge, and around which we can also cooperate across the world,” said Nzimande.

The intention is for ICE 2023 in Sun City to build on ICE 2017 in Denmark, ICE 2019 in Norway, and ICE 2021 at the Colorado School of Mines in the US, with all the conferences devoted entirely to the topic of electrolysis for energy conversion as the conversion of electrical energy to...

When the eastern wall of a tailings storage facility at the Williamson diamond mine, in Tanzania, was breached on November 7 last year, precautionary measures to contain the tailings material and strengthen the New Alamasi water dam were carried out at the operation which is owned 75% by London-listed Petra Diamonds and 25% by the government of Tanzania.

These risk-mitigation measures, which followed flooding extending into areas outside of the mine lease area, have now been completed, Petra stated in a release to Mining Weekly on Tuesday.

A total of 286 people from 50 houses were relocated as a result of the breach. Of these, 130 individuals from 22 houses returned back to their former homes, which have been deemed safe. Currently accommodated in houses rented by Williamson are 145 people from 23 houses, with 11 from five rental houses securing alternative rental accommodation.

All affected households have been provided with accommodation and humanitarian relief, within the village from which they were displaced.

Psychosocial support is being provided and once any issues are identified, a mitigation process is implemented.

The evaluation of impacted livelihoods to ensure that affected individuals are appropriately compensated is nearing completion.

Once finalised, a report will be submitted to government authorities for approval, after which the mine will commence with initial restoration measures, including monetary and in-kind compensation measures.

Alternative agricultural land is being identified to enable farming activities for those affected to recommence as soon as possible and this work is ongoing, in keeping with Tanzanian law and international standards for resettlement.

ROOT CAUSE STILL TO BE DETERMINED

The yet-to-be-determined root cause of the subsidence that led to the breach requires the completion of a forensic geotechnical investigation, including detailed interferometric synthetic aperture radar or InSAR analysis.

Estimates for completion of these studies, being undertaken by an independent company that specialises in tailings dam design and management, remain between six and 12 months, with risk assessment underway at all Williamson mine’s tailings facilities.

Work to identify the best interim tailings storage facility is continuing with external experts from Tanzania and South Africa.

Once competed, a detailed report will be forwarded to the Tanzanian government for approval, which will allow start-up of production to commence while work is being conducted on the longer-term tailings storage solution.

The current estimate of production resuming at the beginning of financial year 2024 remains.

As reported earlier by Mining Weekly, risk-mitigation measures undertaken included the building of an initial 6-m-high wall to close the breach, along with upstream and downstream containment walls, buttressing and diversion trenches.

RETURN TO WILDERNESS

Environmental assessments continue to be carried out to determine how best to clean-up or remediate affected areas and trialling will identify the best land use options post affected-area remediation.

To date, studies indicate that areas lying within the mining lease area are best suited to be returned to wilderness, either as forest or wetlands, through amelioration of the soil and revegetation.

Areas outside of the mine lease area are treated commensurate with the depth of tailings material, where thinner layers of tailings can be mixed into the surrounding soil and thicker layers can be used for agricultural purposes following trials which determine whether enrichment with compost will enable cash crops to be farmed on a viable basis.

FINANCING OPTIONS

The Williamson diamond mine, which is considering additional financing options to provide support during this period, is engaging with the government regarding the sale of the previously blocked and confiscated diamond parcel, the proceeds of which government has agreed to allocate to the mine under a framework a...

London-listed Africa-focused Petra Diamonds announced on Monday that the historic Koffiefontein diamond mine would be placed on care and maintenance.

As reported by Mining Weekly in May last year, Petra was exploring a responsible exit from its investment in the Koffiefontein diamond mining operations, together with black economic empowerment partners Kago Diamonds and the Itumelang employee trust. Petra Diamonds owns 74% of the asset, Kago 14% Itumeleng 12%.

The view expressed by Petra at the time was that it might be feasible for another owner to extend the mine’s life, but a buyer has not been found and the mine, situated in the Free State province, about 80 km from Kimberley, will now be shut.

“The board, in ongoing consultation with its stakeholders, has taken the difficult decision to cease operations and place Koffiefontein on care and maintenance,” Petra CEO Richard Duffy stated in a release.

“Engagement with our key stakeholders remains constructive as we seek to ensure an inclusive and responsible process towards mine closure,” said Duffy.

The asset has been loss-making for several years and low morale remains a risk to the mine’s safety performance.

A Section 189(3) notice was issued to Koffiefontein employees last year informing them of the economic realities of the mine and inviting them to join a collaborative process to determine the optimal way forward towards achieving the mine being placed on care and maintenance. Operations were halted to ensure assessed risks were mitigated.

LOWER GRADES AT CULLINAN

In the six months to the end of December, Petra’s total diamond production decreased 21% to 1.4-million carats owing to lower grades at the Cullinan mine, in Gauteng, lower tonnes mined at Finsch mine, in the Northern Cape, and production suspensions at Koffiefontein and at Williamson mine, in Tanzania.

The half-year revenue of the London-listed company amounted to $212.1-million, compared with $264.7-million in the corresponding six months of 2022, on total rough diamond sales of $210.7-million.

Gross debt decreased to $241.7-million from $366.2-million in the corresponding six-month period.

At Finsch, improvements to equipment and tunnel availability resulted in an increase in run-of-mine grades from December, at Cullinan, the C-Cut CC1E project under development is further expected to contribute higher grade tonnes from the end of the 2024 financial year, and at Williamson, a swift response to the regrettable tailings storage facility breach of 7 November 2022 was underpinned, Petra said, by relationships at both government and local level, as well as a robust governance framework.

Production guidance for the next two financial years has been revised downwards from 3.3- to 3.million carats for each of these years to circa 2.8-million carats for 2023 increasing to up to 3.3-million carats in 2024.

Petra, a supplier of gem rough, manages a diamond resource base of well over 200-million carats.

China’s reopening and ‘whatever it takes’ approach to the property sector are tectonic shifts that should underpin an acceleration in commodity demand through 2023, say Barclays Equity Research analysts.

2023 is set to be another strong year for miners, European metals and mining analysts Amos Fletcher, Ian Rossouw and Tom Zhang state.

This follows China’s commodity demand momentum being under downward pressure throughout 2022.

The ‘whatever it takes’ approach to the real-estate sector is seen as being central to commodity demand.

In particular, the analysts see the move to relax the ‘three red lines’ policy as well as the ‘16-point comprehensive plan’ as being supportive of recovery. It was the ‘three red lines’ policy that triggered the real-estate meltdown of the last two years.

With China now accounting for more than half of key commodity demand, the analysts see the impact on mining of a US/European recession as being lowered. The impact of Europe on key commodity demand is put at 15% and that of the US is calculated to be 8% at most.

“Our conclusion is that with China set to deliver a positive economic impulse into 2023, it should underpin powerful relative outperformance from the miners even during a western world recession,” they state.

China’s real-estate rescue plan of November, they point out, has already helped to improve homebuyer confidence, with the onshore bond market starting to reflect the improving policy backdrop. Household savings are also elevated after two years of limited consumption, implying significant pent-up demand potential.

Iron-ore, they point out, has enjoyed a powerful bounce since November amid imported iron-ore inventories at steel mills being at multi-year lows.

A plausible case is seen for the iron-ore price reaching $150/t before falling back and for iron-ore to then average a 15%-higher price of $115/t in 2023.

PLATINUM PRICE RISE OF 11% FORECAST BY CREDIT SUISSE ANALYSTS

Analysts from Credit Suisse Equity Research Europe and UK state in a metals and mining report that they continue to prefer platinum over palladium.

With supply issues in South Africa, reduced recycling rates and improving demand in China, they expect the platinum market to turn into a material deficit into 2023.

“Our platinum forecast rise is 11% in 2023, while our palladium forecasts are unchanged,” the Credit Suisse analysts state.

Remaining intact are what they describe as the macro positives, such as future mineral demand and China’s reopening, and also enduring, they say, are micro positives that embrace capital discipline, environmental social and governance performance, and improved communication.

Regarding iron-ore, the Credit Suisse analysts also see a positive demand pull arising from China’s infrastructure stimulus as well as the Asian country’s restart of stalled property development.

These macro and micro factors, they predict, will support an iron-ore price averaging $120/t through 2023.