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Since the new leadership at State rail enterprise Transnet has began engaging with South Africa's mining industry, the level of transparency has been "much, much improved", according to African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) Ferrous CE André Joubert.

Joubert, who was speaking during an analyst question session covered by Mining Weekly, described the industry as being "very active" in engaging with Transnet on rail transportation of iron-ore and manganese ores.

Noting the stance taken by Kumba Iron Ore to adjust its production to lower available rail capacity, Integral Asset Management CIO Bruce Williamson asked ARM about the stance that Assmang would be taking. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.)

Including the railing of manganese in his answer, Joubert described the new Transnet leadership as almost opening its soul to the industry and recounted how the State rail enterprise had allowed producers to collectively do an independent technical assessment of the rail infrastructure.

The independent technical assessment, he said, had revealed that the state of the rail network had deteriorated to a point where it was going to take a lot of effort and money to get it back to nameplate capacity

This had resulted in the industry collectively working very closely with Transnet with various programmes being implemented.

"Based on that, you are looking at about 87% to 88% of nameplate capacity and we did adjust our rail volume to that.

"We definitely see for the next three to five years that we will be working at that system. Of course, we pray that it will be quicker than that but we can't base our strategy on hope.

"There is going to be more time out so that we can have long-term sustainable improvements on the iron-ore line.

"On the manganese side, we invested quite a lot of capital in our Black Rock mine to produce 4.5-million tons per annum.

"When this year started, we planned for close to four-million tons and we said that the portion that Transnet was not going to do would be transported by road.

"We started off doing that but with the prices dropping, it because very evident that road transport is not profitable and we took the decision to stop the road transport.

"Road haul does not make sense for us so therefore every ton previously road-hauled might as be left underground and expenditure be delayed until such time as Transnet get their act together, and again, this decision was taken collectively.

"There are a lot of projects happening. If you look again, we took a realistic view that the next to year's we'll rail 3.4-million tons of manganese and then we'll push that up to 3.7-million tons and then to four-million tons.

"Our mine is set up for that, we can do that, but for now we have to look at repurposing our mine and setting out to manage the grade.

"That's our strategy and we are marrying that strategy exactly with the information that we have from Transnet. So, for us, road hauling is done only if there is a serious emergency and we need to fill a ship," Joubert explained.

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Dr Patrice Motsepe, the founder and chairperson of diversified mining company African Rainbow Minerals (ARM), has expressed confidence in the direction being taken by South Africa's State transport enterprise Transnet.

The executive head of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed ARM is also confident in the direction he believes that State electricity utility Eskom will take.

"I'm confident that the right things are being done with Transnet and I'm confident that the right things will be done with Eskom," Motsepe emphasised during question time at the ARM's latest presentation of dividend-yielding half-year financial results, covered by Mining Weekly. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.)

"We're pleased with Transnet's progress, and Eskom is crucial for our business as well, and we are hoping for an Eskom that, in the not too distant future, succeeds in providing the cheapest electricity, which will be good for industry.

"But one other important point is that Eskom is crucial for South Africa's poor people and it's critically important that all of us work together to protect Eskom, and to make sure that Eskom is a world-class electricity company. But, in my view, the most important thing is that it serves the poor, who need electricity that is as cheap and as reliable as possible," said Motsepe.

Regarding the emergence of independent power producers (IPPs) and their generation of mainly renewable electricity, he added:

"The issue of the IPPs is in relation to the technology that has been developing which will have an impact on the competitiveness of utilities such as Eskom.

"But the bottom line is that we all have to work together and make sure than Eskom is a competitive provider of electricity and the single most important issue for me in relation to Eskom is the poor. We should hope that Eskom should provide cheaper electricity for the benefit of the poor.

"South Africans are compassionate people and you cannot have a successful mining industry without an improvement in the living conditions of poor people.

"We've got to clearly understand that if electricity is expensive, it has an impact on our capacity to create jobs, it has an impact on the competitiveness of the mining industry.

"Our focus, as a country, has to be that we will only succeed if poor, unemployed South Africans also have a future. You cannot have rich people and rich companies living side-by-side with poor people who are unemployed.

"All of us only succeed when poor people and unemployed people have a future. We have a long-term duty and we are not judged by what we say but on how the unemployed, the poor, are impacted by what we do.

"Many of the mining companies are retrenching because their businesses are under stress and I've got no doubt that every single one of those mining companies is looking at what they have to do in the context of their long-term commitment to their employees and to the country.

"We sometimes do the most incomprehensible and inexplicable things and again, in the context of Eskom and Transnet, we have been doing the wrong things.

"We now have to do the right things and I'm confident that the right things are being done with Transnet and I'm confident that the right things will also be done with Eskom," Motsepe emphasised.

ARM's wide-ranging contribution to the development and upliftment of poor rural and urban communities in South Africa includes educating students from these communities.

ARM also sponsors an endowment that will be invested in perpetuity to support research in the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment at the University of the Witwatersrand.

It has also partnered with Stellenbosch University to establish a geometallurgy research chair.

RENEWABLE ENERGY AND DECARBONISATION

ARM is committed to confronting climate change accompanied by what it calls a just and a fair transition.

On the renewable energy front, a 132 MWp ...

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Full ownership and execution of factors that are within management's control are being elevated to the highest possible level by African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) CEO Phillip Tobias.

ARM has sharpened its pencil in as far as things that are within its control are concerned and success is being achieved tackling costs, increasing volumes, and managing grades.

"Your cost curve will really determine how far you are going to run so we want to be in the first quartile and it will come through hard work and we really want to commend our workforce, and our leadership as well, for heeding the call.

"When the clarion call was made, they really heeded it, and we've seen some improvement. It's not over. It's a continuous improvement. It's like sweeping water uphill, so it's a daily thing.

"We need to continue to look for those opportunities and any slight improvement in cost, volume and grade can be seen on the bottom line," Tobias emphasised in an interview with Mining Weekly. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video

While ARM Ferrous reported 12% higher headline earnings, ARM Platinum reported a loss owing to the sharp fall of platinum group metals (PGMs), and ARM Coal was 85% down compared with the corresponding period of last year.

It was the iron-ore division that made the big contribution earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda).

But major effort is being made to improve what is under management control at the PGM operations.

"I'm pleased to say that there has been a 4% increase on the Modikwa mining grade and we've also seen some marginal improvement on the Two Rivers mining grade although we are still mining the split reef.

"We have, to a certain extent, been able to optimise our cut and we are quite pleased with that because it's an ongoing thing because that is basically the nature of the beast.

"We are now on the split reef area. The two operations Modikwa and Two Rivers have respectively shown an improvement of 2% and 3% year-on-year, which is quite pleasing," said Tobias.

Making sure that an enabling environment is created for ARM employees and is simplifying things for employees to perform to the best of their ability is also an ongoing priority.

"Global competitiveness is what is going to differentiate us, especially when there's a price squeeze.

Mining Weekly: In circumstances like the present, how beneficial is ARM's diversified portfolio of mining assets?

Tobias: If you look at our results, you'd see that even from the Ebitda segment that iron-ore delivered about 80% of that. Previously, it was almost an equal distribution between iron-ore and the PGMs business but with PGMs falling to about 8%, the outcome was that iron-ore took a big chunk of that split and we are quite grateful that it was not only price related but there was an improvement in terms of volume of sales and production. We saw a 1% improvement on that and the cost as well. If you look at the unit cost on the iron-ore side with Khumani, it was just a 3% increase compared with the corresponding period. That's quite helpful considering that we've seen a shortfall of approximately 40% in the PGMs basket price. You do need the cushion that diversification provides because mining is cyclical.

To what extent is ARM rationalising capital expenditure?

As we announced in our previous results, we've concluded capital expenditure on Black Rock, so now the focus is more on the PGMs business. What is very important is that in as much as the Two Rivers Platinum Merensky capital project of 200 000 t has been approved, we need to continue to make sure that we really focus on differentiating between the needs and the wants. The wants are what we can park and the business will still basically continue, and then, at the right time, when the price is right, you can bring in the wants. That is the rationalisation that is taking place. Also, regarding Bokoni, the bo...

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South African gold producer Aurous, which owns and operates the Blyvoor gold mine and the Gauta tailings retreatment project on Gauteng's West Rand, has announced plans to go public through a business combination with US-based Rigel Resource Acquisition Corp.

The transaction, which puts Aurous at a pre-money equity value of some R6.76-billion ($362-million), is expected to enable Blyvoor to expand its underground infrastructure, enhance surface infrastructure, and optimise operations through economies of scale.

"This transaction and associated influx of foreign investment into South Africa has the potential to enable further meaningful job creation, continued revitalisation of the local community and recapitalisation of Africa's precious metals industry, all of which we expect will be well-received by the relevant South African authorities," Aurous CEO Richard Floyd stated in a release to Mining Weekly.

Aurous is described by Rigel CEO Jon Lamb as a cash-positive, debt-light target that already has impressive operational milestones under its belt.

Making up Aurous are Blyvoor Gold Resources and Blyvoor Gold Operations and New York-listed Rigel is a special purpose acquisition company sponsored by a fund managed by Orion Resource Partners. The two companies have entered into a definitive business combination agreement that will result in Aurous becoming publicly traded.

On completion of the proposed business combination, which is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, the resulting company is expected to be named Aurous Resources and is to ultimately list on NASDAQ.

Floyd and Aurous executive chairperson Alan Smith will continue to lead the business, the principal asset of which, the Blyvoor mine, is a long-life underground gold mine in the Witwatersrand region, west of Johannesburg.

Since the restart of Blyvoor production in 2022, Aurous has been able to re-employ some 1 500 workers who had been unemployed following closure of the mine in 2013.

"We've worked diligently over a few years to find a quality business to combine with and are pleased to have arrived at this merger agreement which is expected to deliver a value-accretive transaction to all stakeholders," Rigel president Nate Abebe noted.

Rand Merchant Bank is acting as financial adviser to Aurous and Milbank LLP and ENS as legal counsel to Aurous.

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African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) executive chairperson Dr Patrice Motsepe said during Friday's presentation of dividend-yielding results that his diversified mining company is committed to confronting climate change.

"Our policies are part of what we call a just and a fair transition," said Motsepe of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange-listed company, which is engaged in iron-ore, manganese, platinum group metals and coal mining.

On being in Miami two weeks ago at the meeting of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) with the CEOs of the largest mining companies in the world, Motsepe expressed great pride in the work that the ICMM is doing and the commitment to partnering with community stakeholders.

"Our commitment to ESG and climate change is to a large extent expressing the principles of the top mining companies of the world that are part of the ICMM - BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Vale and many others.

"The clear commitment of the transition to zero emissions, which is the ultimate objective over time, also entails the training, educating and the transition of those currently dependent on the coal industry who will be needing new training, new jobs, new opportunities and a good future," said Motsepe.

Regarding local coal logistics requiring much improvement, ARM is encouraged by the appointment of the new CEO of Transnet, Michelle Phillips, which the company sees as emphasising what it has often reiterated.

"You have to employ the smartest and the brightest and the best. Meritocracy is non-negotiable and making sure that some of the top positions are occupied by the smartest women in this country and we've got equally smart black, white, Indian and Coloured South Africans.

"If you grow up in a business, you have a solid understanding of what the challenges are and we have to focus on those, particularly during this time that we have now to make sure that those who have got the experience, those who have got the track record, get the jobs, and I think we are moving in the right direction," said Motsepe.

He described Transnet and Eskom as being crucial to the entire mining industry and the ability of ARM to create value for its shareholders.

"An efficient Eskom that sells the cheapest possible electricity is very important for industry as well as South Africa's poor people and it is critically important that all of us work together to protect Eskom and to make sure that it is world-class.

"Of course, Eskom is very important for business but in my view, Eskom is crucial for the poor, who need electricity that is as cheap and as reliable as possible. The issue about the private sector and the independent power producers in particular is in relation to the technology that has been developing and that will have an impact on utilities such as Eskom and others.

"But the bottom line is, we all have to work together and to make sure that Eskom is a competitive provider of electricity and, as I said, the single most important issue for me in relation to Eskom is the poor,' Motsepe emphasised during the presentation covered by Mining Weekly.

In this week's episode of Second Take, Mining Weekly Editor Martin Creamer unpacks Menar’s memorandum of agreement with Gabon; high platinum demand owing to an expected 7-year high in the automotive sector; and a week-long event in China to boost platinum group metals.

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When Engineering News & Mining Weekly covered last month's local launch of BMW's first hydrogen car fleet on South Africa's roads, we discovered that BMW's hydrogen refilling station in Midrand is powered by Elemental Energy's off-grid hydrogen power system, which has a crucial Toyota fuel cell underpin.

Interestingly, we now learn that Elemental Energy is on a major mission to build hydrogen power systems in developing countries in particular.

"We are just at the beginning of seeing the many applications of green hydrogen play out globally, and we think stationary power is one of the most important to get right," Elemental Energy's Dereck Armstrong told Mining Weekly in a note ahead of our Zoom interview on March 7. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.)

Already operating in South Africa on grid, solar, battery and hydrogen is Elemental Energy's 100 kW system at Jaci's Lodges in the Madikwe Game Reserve in North West province, a demonstrator that is already attracting considerable attention from the mining and agriculture sectors. The hydrogen for that site was produced on a nearby commercial farm and delivered in trailer units by Elemental Energy, which sees itself as an integrator of hydrogen technology that has Toyota's automotive fuel cells in its power units.

"Toyota have been a great partner and deliver a truly high-performing and tested piece of kit," said Armstrong, who views hydrogen supply for stationary power as the leading use case for developing green hydrogen supply in many regions.

This coincides with a comment made this week by the World Platinum Investment Council, which forecasts that stationary hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen electrolysers will increase demand for platinum by more than 120% this year.

Toyota uses platinum-catalysed fuel cells and Elemental Energy is mulling the potential use of platinum-based proton exchange membrane (PEM) for some sites.

"Green hydrogen can already be produced at prices that compete with diesel on a dollar per kilowatt hour basis and it is only going to become more competitive over the next few years," said Armstrong.

"We see hydrogen supply for stationary power being the leading use case for developing green hydrogen supply in many regions. With green hydrogen supply and demand coming online at the same time to replace diesel, the added benefit of a local supply is provided that can also be used to add vehicles or other hydrogen use cases as offtakers from the same infrastructure.

"We're just at the beginning of seeing the many applications of green hydrogen play out globally, and we think stationary power is one of the most important to get right, especially in Africa," Armstrong said.

Adding storage capacity for hydrogen, a transportable renewable fuel, is relatively cheap and a fuel cell with gas storage can deliver long-duration energy.

"Our solution is actually an integrated solar/wind, battery and hydrogen system to deliver a cost-effective hybridisation of these technologies.

"We see ourselves as a technology integrator, which, when it comes to hydrogen, involves a fair bit of intellectual property and expertise itself.

"We work with some of the leading technology suppliers of electrolysis, compressors, hydrogen storage, batteries, inverters, and fuel cells and build the systems and controls to get all of these working together smoothly.

"Our core system is a smart power station that looks similar to a big diesel generator but is actually a lot more than that. It really becomes the brains and controls of all the power supply and storage on site.

"We also integrate hydrogen storage cylinders into a smaller trailer design that we build and assemble ourselves. This allows us to move hydrogen around quite efficiently for low distance, high frequency distribution.

"The hydrogen fuel cell does the job typically done by a diesel generator. The fuel cell chemically recombines hydrogen ...

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This year could potentially turn out to be quite an interesting year for platinum as a commodity and also as an investment, with the 2023 platinum market deficit of 878 000 oz forecast to be followed by a 2024 deficit of 418 000 oz.

In addition to automotive demand being poised to reach the seven-year-high figure of 3 297 000 oz, demand for platinum from stationary fuel cells and electrolysers is set to rise by more than 120%, amid green hydrogen projects getting under way in Europe, following oversubscribed auctions, and also in North America, where the Inflation Reduction Act is stimulating widespread development.

Contrasting sharply with this are the two substantial consecutive annual platinum supply deficits, plus a seeming momentous decline in above-ground stocks, which is kindling hopes of a much-needed price rise.

"We haven't seen the underlying fundamentals translate into price so far, for automaker inventory management reasons, but as the above-ground stocks are being depleted, you'd expect the residual above-ground ounces to require higher prices," World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) research director Edward Sterck outlined to Mining Weekly in a Zoom interview to mark the publication of WPIC's latest quarterly report for the fourth quarter of 2023, along with a full 2023 year review and a revised 2024 forecast. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.)

While demand rose above eight-million ounces last year, supply fell to seven-million ounces, the second-lowest figure since 2013, surpassed only by the Covid-hit 2020.

Even this year's 6% lower demand expectation easily outdoes the five-year demand average since 2019, while supply is projected to decrease still 1% further year-on-year.

"It seems that the automakers have effectively accumulated excess inventories of around a million ounces of platinum, and that roughly matches up with the with the major deficit of 878 000 oz that we estimate for 2023.

"We think what's happened is that during 2023, automakers effectively managed their new purchasing commitments to run down those excess platinum group metal inventories, and that effectively took the heat out of the market. That process is continuing to run through into the beginning of this year but we think it has largely now run its course," Sterck highlighted.

What has not run its course, however, is automotive demand for platinum, which is expected to hit a seven-year high in 2024, after having jumped 16% to 3 272 000 oz last year.

Traditionally, 40% to 45% of platinum has gone into exhaust treatment systems for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and on the horizon is major potential demand for green hydrogen amid more than $300-billion in government subsidies being turned into green hydrogen projects that are under construction and being commissioned.

As green hydrogen demand grows, platinum offers investors a way of engaging with assets associated with compulsory global decarbonisation, with many companies advancing low-emission initiatives for implementation well ahead of the 2050 global deadline.

With various governments around the world continuing to announce green hydrogen subsidies, platinum-based hydrogen implementation could be pulled closer faster.

Mining Weekly: What is driving the ongoing high demand for platinum in the automotive sector at a time when ICE vehicle production is decreasing?

Sterck: That's a very good question. If we think about the overall drive train landscape, it seems quite possible that 2023 was the post-Covid high watermark for ICE vehicle production. In 2024, the outlook for ICE vehicles is lower than for last year, and yet we continue to see growth in demand for platinum for automotive applications. There are really two driving forces behind that. Firstly, we still expect increased platinum-for-palladium substitution to occur this year. That may begin to abate or even reverse in future ye...

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While the operating environment remains challenging, with macro-economic and geo-political uncertainty persisting, the medium- to long-term view of Sibanye-Stillwater remains largely unchanged on the fundamental outlook for the metals it produces, with the exception of nickel.

The Johannesburg- and New York-listed green metals and gold mining company said it was confident that the price weakness of platinum group metals (PGMs) during 2023 does not signal a structural change in PGM fundamentals, such as that of the nickel market, but is more temporary in nature, Sibanye-Stillwater CEO Neal Froneman said during the company's results presentation covered by Mining Weekly.

"And we're beginning to see increasing signs that support a better demand outlook," said Froneman.

"We believe that the precipitous decline in PGM prices during the first half of last year, was due to a confluence of negative factors and exacerbated by unexpected destocking of inventory which caught the market by surprise, causing increased uncertainty and market anxiety.

" This bearish sentiment was reflected in a significant build-up of speculative short positions in palladium, which also contributed to the price pressure," Froneman added.

The substantial declines in the prices of most commodities, with the notable exception of gold, and persistent cost inflation, has translated into materially lower earnings and cash flows placing the entire global mining industry under severe financial pressure.

Sibanye's financial results for the year ended December 31 were similarly impacted by the sudden and sharp decline in PGM and nickel prices.

The 33% year-on-year decline in the average PGM basket prices in particular, resulted in a dramatic fall in the profitability of Stillwater in the US and, to a lesser extent, Sibanye's South African PGM operations, which remain profitable while experiencing a 42% decline in the average four-element PGM basket price resulted in adjusted earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) more than halving period-on-period to R5.8-billion for the last six months of last year.

Consequently, group adjusted Ebitda for 2023 fell to R20.6-billion, 50% lower than the R41.1-billion for 2022, which was in itself a 40% decline from record levels of R68.6 billion for 2021, which marked the peak of the commodity price cycle.

The significant decline in metal prices and uncertain outlook, along with specific operational performance factors, also resulted in the recognition of impairments of R47.5-billion, which were a primary driver of the group reporting a loss for 2023 of R37.4-billion compared with a R19-billion profit for 2022.

Sibanye continues to see emerging signals that support its long held, robust view on PGM demand including forecast growth of light duty vehicle production over the rest of this decade and recent moderation in battery electric vehicle (BEV) growth rates and accompanying increase in hybrid power-train adoption.

The predicted demise of internal combustion engine vehicles is turning out to appear premature, which is challenging the forecast penetration of BEVs.

Meanwhile, primary supply of PGM is likely to continue to decline in an inflationary environment with low PGM prices, while recycling supply remains subdued and well below forecasts.

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South Africa's consistently advancing mining investment company Menar has signed a memorandum of agreement with the government of Gabon.

"We think that Gabon is one of the promising countries when it comes to investments in mining, especially manganese and iron-ore," Menar MD Vuslat Bayoglu highlighted during a Zoom interview with Mining Weekly. (Also watch attached Creamer Media video.)

"We've been looking at doing things in Gabon for a while, and we did our homework and we ended up signing an MOU. We haven't gone further than that yet. But soon, we're hoping to have a visit to the country and start talking with the relevant government authorities to look at what is available and what we can do in terms of prospecting for manganese and iron-ore, which is part of our diversification strategy.

"We're hoping that we're going to add a nice project in one of these ferrous metals in Gabon," said Bayoglu.

"There was a change of government. As you know, there was a coup in the country. But they reorganised as mining is a very important revenue maker for the country.

"They know that South Africa is a great mining culture, so they appreciate that we're showing interest and they're very responsive. From time to time, there are some issues some glitches but in general, they're very good in terms of responding to our requests or our questions.

Mining Weekly: And you managed to speak to key members of the Gabon government face to face at the Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town.

Bayoglu: Yes, I did. I had the one-on-one meeting with them at the Mining Indaba and we're planning to visit Gabon in June.

GUGULETHU PROJECT

Meanwhile, in South Africa, investment in Gugulethu Colliery project has been completed, with opencast mining under way and infrastructure built.

"We processed our first run of mine about three weeks ago and we're currently at the point of trying to ramp up to steady state," Bayoglu said.

At steady state, the colliery will be employing 410 people. " We're employing people from the local community. We've already trained 41 new young male and female operators, so it's exciting for the community and it's exciting for the company to see the project progressing well.

"We had some delays in the project because of rain and believe it or not, at some point, it snowed in that area. We're trying to catch up and it's looking very promising and we're hoping to reach the steady state in three months' time. Everything is going according to plan and we're expecting to move the first coal to the port in two to three weeks," Bayoglu added.

On the rail logistics front, South Africa has seen the private sector stepping up to assist the State-run Transnet Freight Rail. How impactful do you think these public-private interventions will be?

The collaboration between Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) and Transnet Freight Rail is working quite well. We actually started to help with security because one of the big issues is cable theft and that actually helped Transnet to drop the cable theft cases. Then we started talking about batteries and compressors and RBCT shareholders are helping Transnet regarding that point and the collaboration is working very well, which shows that private companies can work with State-owned entities if the will is there. In the last three to four weeks, Transnet Freight Rail consistently transported 1.1-million tonnes per week compared with the levels of 800 000 t to 900 000 t of the past. There's still a lot to be done because Transnet Freight Rail is targeting to move 60-million tonnes to RBCT this year from coalfields compared with last year's figure of 47-million tonne. Even if Transnet Freight Rail does not achieve the 60-million tonnes targeted, I'm still very hopeful that they will do better than last year. The recent changes in management have been very positively received and people who are in charge are very experienc...