Monday's fantasy baseball roundup is PACKED with dynasty-altering news.

**MURAKAMI TAKES SOLO HOME RUN LEAD**

Munetaka Murakami hit his 17th home run Sunday, pulling ahead of Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber in the MLB home run race. This isn't a hot streak — it's a superstar arriving.

• 17 HR in 41 games (on pace for 47)

• 22.3% barrel rate (98th percentile)

• 97.1 mph avg exit velocity

• 64% hard-hit rate

• First-round asset in EVERY format going forward

The ADP conversation around Murakami entering 2026 was absurd. He's a cornerstone. Buy at current price or regret it all season.

**BRYCE ELDER: THE ACE TRANSFORMATION**

Five and two-thirds innings. ONE HIT allowed. ZERO earned runs. Eight strikeouts. His season ERA drops to 1.81 through 9 starts.

Context matters: Elder posted a 6.52 ERA in 2024 and 5.30 in 2025. The red flags were REAL. But his pitch mix evolution — specifically a new cutter and improved changeup tunneling — has completely transformed what hitters see.

• 3.8% barrel rate allowed (league avg: 7.6%)

• Slider: 35.7% whiff rate

• Cutter: mid-30s chase rate vs RHH

• xERA: 2.90 (will improve after Sunday's gem)

He's a process-backed, analytically supported ace pitching for the best team in the NL. The buy window is closing.

**EDWIN DIAZ: 60-DAY IL SHOCKER**

Dodgers transferred Edwin Diaz to the 60-day IL. He was already on the 15-day with an elbow issue, but this move rules him out until at least mid-July — realistically late July.

Alex Vesia is LOCKED IN as Dodgers closer for the entire first half:

• Sub-2.00 ERA in closer role

• Slider: 43% whiff rate

• 95-97 mph velo

• Dodgers win close games + run support

Vesia is not a streamer. He's a must-roster closer in all formats.

**DRAKE BALDWIN: BUY HIGH, PAY THE PRICE**

Baldwin hit his 10th home run Sunday and is now batting .297 with a .401 xwOBA and 158 wRC+. His plate discipline (14% BB rate, 24% chase rate) fuels everything.

Ten home runs by mid-May on a 22-year-old catching-eligible hitter is NOT a hot streak. It's a player arriving. If you can acquire him at preseason ADP, you're stealing value.

**RAYS: MOST UNDERRATED TEAM IN BASEBALL**

Tampa Bay won again. 14 wins in their last 16 games. 26-13 overall.

• Junior Caminero: 10 HR, 14.1% barrel rate in May, launch angle jumped from 10.2° to 15.6°

• Bryan Baker: 10 saves, 2.30 ERA, 9-0 record. Locked closer on winning team.

• Rotation steady all season. Bullpen one of best in AL.

Unlike Yankees/Braves, Rays are flying under market radar. Baker. Caminero. Shane McClanahan when he returns. The Rays window in your league is RIGHT NOW.

**BEN RICE SLUMP: DON'T PANIC**

Rice went 0-for-13 vs Brewers. But he just returned from a bruised hand. Hitters need 10-15 games to regain feel.

Statcast shows his barrel rate didn't drop — launch angle and pull-side contact broke down. Those are mechanical and self-correct. Hold in dynasty. Keep in lineup for redraft.

**CLOSER WATCH**

• David Bednar: Second blown save, 3/5 conversion rate over 2 weeks. Monitor weekly, don't panic.

• Yankees using Michael Tonkin & Ian Hamilton in high-leverage. Situation to watch.

**THREE BIG TAKEAWAYS**

1. Braves are operating at different level — Elder (1.81 ERA), Baldwin (10 HR), Sale (6-1, 1.59 ERA), Acuna returning soon. Most dominant fantasy roster in baseball.

2. HR race is 3-way conversation now — Murakami (17), Judge (16), Schwarber (16). Murakami has best barrel rate/EV. Own 2+ to win HR category.

3. Rays are undervalued — 26-13, 14-2 in last 16, assets still available below market price.

Episode covers ALL Sunday games plus waiver wire targets and streaming options.

AARON JOLLY

MLB Daily Dynasty

May 11, 2026

Keywords: Munetaka Murakami, 17 home runs, home run leader, Bryce Elder, 1.81 ERA, ace transformation, Edwin Diaz, 60-day IL, Alex Vesia, Dodgers closer, Drake Baldwin, 10 home runs, Rays 26-13, Junior Caminero, Bryan Baker, Ben Rice, fantasy baseball, waiver wire, May 11 2026

Friday night made baseball history. Jacob Misiorowski threw the fastest pitch ever recorded by a starting pitcher in the Statcast era — 103.6 mph — and he did it TEN TIMES.

The Brewers right-hander threw 41 pitches at 100+ mph while shutting out the Yankees 6-0. Six innings. Eleven strikeouts. Two hits. Two walks. Let that sink in.

His stat line is absurd:

• Fastball averages 99.3 mph

• K-rate: 38.1% (99th percentile)

• Whiff rate: 39.8%

• xERA: 2.90

• Fastball spin percentile: 99th

The extension percentile — meaning hitters are seeing his heater later than any starter alive — is also 99th. That is an unfair combination. His walk rate (9.7%) needs to tighten, but he's already elite at missing bats. If he's somehow available in shallow 12-team redrafts, add him immediately. In dynasty formats, he's a decade-long cornerstone. Not a sell-high.

The other side of that game — Brandon Lockridge carted off with a deep laceration down to the bone after crashing into unpadded concrete. Manager Pat Murphy said "it's going to be a while." Lockridge was batting .290 with 12 RBIs and 5 steals. This opens playing time for Jackson Chourio (42 HR power, 21 years old). Dynasty managers: stash Chourio now.

Yankees were completely shut down — Max Fried took the loss, giving up 5 ER in 6 IP. But Misiorowski is not just anyone.

Guardians system taking forward steps:

• Travis Bazzana hit first career HR (427 feet). After 0-for-12 start, he's 6-for-18 with 6 SB since May 2nd (best in MLB over that stretch). Do not sell low.

• Parker Messick excellent again: 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks. Now 4-0 with 2.30 ERA. Most undervalued starter in your format. Deep dive coming.

• Cade Smith: 11th save (allowed run but closed it). Now sole MLB saves leader. Locked in on winning team. Roster everywhere.

Dylan Cease outstanding: 7 IP, 0 BB, 10 Ks vs Angels. Third double-digit K game in 8 starts. Zero walks in 7 innings is different level of command — historically his knock. First-round fantasy asset now. Buy in trade if you can.

Yordan Alvarez watch: 13th HR (115.9 mph EV). Hitting .324 with 1.08 OPS. Statcast reads like sci-fi — 94.3 mph avg EV, 18.2% barrel rate, .756 xSLG. On 29-HR pace. If Astros lineup stabilizes, second half could be historic. Buy at current price.

Michael McGreevy: 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. 2.52 ERA on season. 24-year-old looking like legit #2 starter. Solid streaming option vs weaker lineups, permanent spot in 15+ team formats.

Closer race: Cade Smith (11 saves) now outright leader. Miller and O'Brien stuck at 11 after Padres/Cardinals didn't get save chances Friday.

Phillies trouble: Jesus Luzardo imploded (5 runs, 0 outs in 4th). Painter at 6.89 ERA. Keller unreliable (3 saves, 2 losses). Offense clicking (Schwarber 13th HR, Crawford emerging, Harper 4 times on base), but pitching must stabilize.

Three takeaways:

1. Misiorowski is REAL. 38% K-rate, sub-3 xERA, fastest fastball ever, 24 years old. Dynasty cornerstone.

2. Guardians building best young core fantasy isn't pricing correctly: Bazzana, Messick, Smith. Three first-round assets on one team.

3. Phillies ceiling problem if pitching doesn't stabilize. Offense is there under Mattingly, but rotation/bullpen concerning.

AARON JOLLY

MLB Daily Dynasty

May 9, 2026

Keywords: Jacob Misiorowski, 103.6 mph, fastest pitch ever, shutout Yankees, Brandon Lockridge IL, Jackson Chourio, Travis Bazzana, Parker Messick, Cade Smith, Dylan Cease, Yordan Alvarez, fantasy baseball, waiver wire, dynasty, May 9 2026

Thursday's slate gave us everything: A pitcher going eight innings in a blowout, the Cubs extending to NINE straight wins, a closer race that just got fascinating, and a Yankees injury that reshapes the outfield landscape overnight.

Let's start with the Cubs. Shota Imanaga: Six innings, one run, ten strikeouts. Chicago beat Cincinnati 8-3 and extended their win streak to nine games. Their record is now 27-12 — best in the National League. Imanaga has been the engine of this entire run.

His numbers are backed by legitimate process: 2.40 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.74 xERA. That FIP-to-xERA relationship tells you this is real, not luck. His K-to-BB ratio is 3.7-to-1. His sweeper generates a 40%+ whiff rate. His split-finger induces a 44% chase rate. Yes, his hard-hit rate allowed is elevated at 52.5% — that's the flag to monitor. But for now, he's a top-12 starter in every format. If you passed on him early because of modest velocity, his pitch mix and command are telling a different story. Pay ace price to acquire him now.

Now the Yankees news. Jasson Dominguez is headed to the IL with a low-grade sprain of his left AC joint. He made a tremendous over-the-wall catch in the first inning and paid for it. Boone said "a few weeks" — but AC joint sprains have a way of lingering. If you have Dominguez, hold him — he's not a sell-low candidate. But plug in a short-term streamer for the next 2-3 weeks. Watch how Boone fills his spot — there could be streamer value in whoever slides into that role.

The Yankees offense is still humming. Cody Bellinger had three hits including a triple. Trent Grisham had three hits, three RBIs, and a stolen base. Yes, he's batting .182 — but he's making hard contact, posting a chase rate well below league average, and hitting the ball the other way. Put him on your watch list in 15+ team formats.

Now the closer situation — and this is fascinating. Riley O'Brien picked up his 11th save for St. Louis, tying him with Mason Miller for the MLB lead. On Mason Miller's own bobblehead night at Petco Park. O'Brien is absolutely real: 2.00 ERA, locked role in St. Louis with a team that has won 22 games. He's a top-5 closer in every format. Check your waiver wire — that window may be closing.

Cade Smith notched his 10th save for Cleveland. Quietly accumulating saves on one of the better teams in the AL Central. Set-it-and-forget-it closer option.

Tampa Bay remains a committee approach. Cole Sulser closed it out Thursday, but the Rays are still using a committee. Not yet a reliable fantasy asset for any one name.

Other highlights:

• Sal Stewart: 10th HR, 22 years old, 17.6% barrel rate, K-rate dropped from 25.9% to 18.1%. Long-term buy, not sell-high.

• J.T. Ginn: Eight innings, one run, eight strikeouts on 96 pitches. 25-year-old put himself on streaming radar. Watch next start.

• Andrew Painter accountability: Eight earned runs in 3.2 innings. ERA now 6.89. Velocity down, slider lost 2 inches of break. Not viable in any format right now. Sell the name-brand value while it exists.

• Jordan Walker: Hitting .309, quietly excellent May, 2-for-4 Thursday. Worth owning in most formats.

Three takeaways:

1. Imanaga and the Cubs aren't slowing down. 27-12, nine straight wins. He's the ace and you should be paying ace price.

2. Yankees survived Dominguez injury but monitor how Boone fills his spot. Bellinger and Grisham are hitting.

3. Phillies need to decide on Painter. If he keeps surrendering crooked numbers, he's draining wins from a playoff team. Sell while name value still exists.

AARON JOLLY

MLB Daily Dynasty

May 8, 2026

Keywords: Shota Imanaga, Cubs 9 wins, Jasson Dominguez IL, Yankees injury, Riley O'Brien, Mason Miller, 11 saves, fantasy baseball, waiver wire, add now, Sal Stewart, J.T. Ginn, Andrew Painter, Jordan Walker

Wednesday delivered two performances fantasy managers won't forget.

Andy Pages hit THREE home runs in Houston — a 393-foot three-run shot, a 370-foot two-run bomb, and a 363-foot solo shot. Six RBIs. Career highs across the board. But the real question isn't whether the three-homer game was real (one game never tells you that). The question is whether the 52.9% hard-hit rate and the 1.9 mph jump in average exit velocity are real.

They are. Pages' wOBA (.380) runs 33 points above his xwOBA (.347), which means regression is coming. But his underlying contact quality in 2026 is substantially better than 2025 — that 15.7 percentage point hard-hit rate jump is one of the largest in baseball. He's a genuinely better hitter. Hold him through the wOBA regression.

But the TRUE value play from Wednesday? Emerson Hancock.

Six scoreless innings. Nine strikeouts. ZERO runs against the Braves — the best lineup in the National League. His season line: 2.59 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 2.74 xERA.

Let that sink in. All three metrics — ERA, FIP, and xERA — sit within 0.22 points of each other around 2.70. FIP strips out defense. xERA strips out sequencing. When all three align this tightly, it means the performance is REAL across every analytical lens.

Hancock has struck out 14, 9, and 9 in his last three starts. His fastball sits at 97.1 mph with a 32% chase rate. His slider generates a 41% whiff rate. He is executing at an elite level. The Mariners are 18-20, which is suppressing his ownership. But wins are team events — strikeouts and ERA belong to the pitcher.

If your format values ratios and strikeouts, Hancock is a top-15 starter RIGHT NOW. Add him everywhere. He is the most undervalued arm in the American League.

Also covered:

• CJ Abrams: Grand slam, career-high 5 RBIs, .960 OPS — 24-year-old shortstop on track for 36 HR / 28 SB pace

• Marcus Semien: 4-for-5 with HR, .847 OPS at age 36

• Sonny Gray: Returns from hamstring, 5 scoreless innings

• Phillies 8-1 under Mattingly — entire team transforming

• Devin Williams: 5th save, Mets stabilizing

• Brad Keller: 3rd save for red-hot Phillies

Three names to prioritize Thursday: Hancock (everywhere), Pages (hold through regression), Abrams (buy if price isn't reflecting first-round value).

AARON JOLLY

MLB Daily Dynasty

May 7, 2026

Keywords: Emerson Hancock, 2.59 ERA, 2.81 FIP, Andy Pages, 3 home runs, CJ Abrams, grand slam, fantasy baseball, waiver wire, add now, Phillies 8-1, Marcus Semien, Sonny Gray

We finally did it. After three weeks of promising this episode, the Drake Baldwin deep dive is here. And the Statcast data is UNMISTAKABLE.

Through 36 games: .313 average. 9 home runs. 30 RBIs. And the number that matters — 158 wRC+. That's 58 percent better than league average. That's not a hot streak. That's MVP-level production.

But here's the number that changes everything: .405 wOBA. .403 xwOBA. Two. Points. Apart.

When your actual production matches your expected production this exactly, it means the balls in play are NOT lucky. They're EARNED. Baldwin is hitting the ball exactly as hard and precisely as his stats suggest. What you see is what he is.

So what changed? The launch angle. 6.6 degrees in 2025. 11.4 degrees in 2026. That 4.8-degree jump moved him from hitting hard grounders to launching line drives and fly balls that find gaps or leave the yard.

The barrel rate jumped to 14.8% (top 10% in baseball). The sweet-spot rate jumped to 40.0%. The hard-hit rate is 50.4% (top 7%). These are not fluke numbers. These are measurable mechanical changes producing measurable results.

Yes, the strikeout rate climbed from 15.2% to 19.3%. That's the tradeoff for lifting the ball more. But when you're trading four percentage points of strikeout rate for nearly 100 points of expected slugging? You take that trade every single time.

The verdict is BUY HIGH. Not because the surface line is flashy — though 30 RBIs in 36 games certainly is. Buy high because the xwOBA confirms it's real. Buy high because the launch angle change is mechanical and measurable. Buy high because he's 25 years old and this is who he is becoming, not who he briefly was.

Drake Baldwin is the best catcher in fantasy baseball. It's not close. The data says so.

Watch the strikeout rate. Buy the player. The Statcast profile is not ambiguous. Drake Baldwin is the real deal.

AARON JOLLY

MLB Daily Dynasty

May 6, 2026

Keywords: Drake Baldwin, 158 wRC+, xwOBA .403, buy high, fantasy baseball catcher, launch angle, barrel rate 14.8%, Statcast, Braves catcher, dynasty league, waiver wire, breakout season

Is your championship window *actually* open without Mike Trout? Despite the Murakami home run hysteria, Trout just posted a 1.000 OPS this week and is flying under the radar on rosters.

On today’s MLB Daily Delta, we dissect the Angels' explosive 3-HR night and explain why Trout is a buy-low imperative. Plus, did Peter Lambert just outduel Shohei Ohtani? We analyze the Astros' surprise ace and deGrom’s latest meltdown in the Bronx.

The **Waiver Wire** is where you win the week. We expose the breakout arm and the hot bats available in over 75% of leagues that you must add before your league rivals wake up. Don't let these edge-case adds slip away—tune in now

Keywords: Mike Trout, add, drop, trade, breakout, career high, ceiling, elite, batting average, hits, home runs, on-base percentage

Is Aaron Nola finally a must-add again? While Munetaka Murakami is busy launching 429-foot missiles to tie Aaron Judge for the MLB lead, a massive pitching waiver wire advantage is emerging.

On today's episode, we dissect Nola’s renaissance under Don Mattingly and explain why Cam Schlittler is the American League’s most underrated young arm. We also break down Matt Olson’s milestone and Devin Williams’ unexpected save opportunities for the Mets.

Stop guessing and start winning. We reveal which moves provide an immediate edge for your fantasy baseball roster.

Tap in to get the winning edge!** ⚾

Keywords: Davis Martin, Jordan Walker, Matt Olson, Munetaka Murakami, add, drop, trade, waiver wire, ceiling, batting average, hits, home runs

PANIC MODE: Ronald Acuna Jr. is down! 🚨 With Acuna hitting the IL with a hamstring strain, your championship window just got a major shakeup. On today’s *MLB Daily Delta*, Aaron Jolly breaks down the medical timeline and delivers the urgent *fantasy baseball* moves you need to survive.

We analyze the Braves' outlook and discuss the Emmanuel Clase situation—is the elite closer back to must-add status? We identify the specific waiver wire targets ready to inject explosive stats into your lineup. Don't let this injury derail your season. **Tune in now for the insider edge!** ⚾

Keywords: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Chase Burns, Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, add, drop, fantasy baseball, trade, waiver wire, career high, ceiling

Sunday, May 3rd fantasy baseball roundup for the deepest of the deep competitive leagues.

Emerson Hancock struck out 14 batters in a historic performance and still took the loss. Ildemaro Vargas's 27-game hitting streak comes to an end. Jordan Walker hits his 10th home run as the Cardinals win their sixth straight. Spencer Arrighetti improves to 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA. Plus, Ronny Mauricio fractures his thumb and the Mets shortstop situation goes from bad to catastrophic.

Full fantasy analysis on Hancock, Vargas, Walker, Matthews, McGreevy, Arrighetti, and Sasaki in today's episode.

**Murakami alone atop MLB HR leaderboard at 13**

Big stories from Friday:

• Munetaka Murakami: 13 HR (MLB lead), hit #13 at Petco Park

• Ildemaro Vargas: 27-game hitting streak (Venezuela record)

• Nick Kurtz: 20-game walk streak (ties Barry Bonds)

• Will Warren: 4-0, 2.39 ERA, 9 K in 6.1 IP

• Ben Rice: 10 HR, 1.157 OPS (2nd in MLB)

• Michael Harris II: Walk-off 2-run HR, down 6-0 in 9th

• Mason Miller update: Scoreless streak ended at 34.2 IP

Plus: Jordan Walker's 4-for-4, Kazuma Okamoto's 2-HR game, Zack Wheeler's return to form.

Keywords: fantasy baseball, MLB, Munetaka Murakami, home run leader, Ildemaro Vargas, hitting streak, Nick Kurtz, Will Warren, Ben Rice, Yankees, Michael Harris, Braves, waiver wire, daily fantasy baseball