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The current macro-economic “narrative” is as follows:

1.      The Consumer remains "strong", with a "healthy" Balance Sheet

2.      The Labor Market remains "solid." 

In today's podcast I use FACTS, data and simple mathematics to COMPLETELY blow up that narrative and debunk the greatest macro-economic myth out there right now, that the Consumer remains in a "strong" position, with a "healthy" balance sheet, and that the Labor market remains "solid". 

The macro-economic data is SOLID, in suggesting the complete OPPOSITE is true, that the Consumer is CHOKING, their Balance Sheet imploding, and a Consumer Cocoon and Credit Crunch is now well underway, more so as the Labor market gets a whiff of outright DEFLATION in the June Employment Situation Report for June. Throw in the New York Federal Reserve Bank's June Consumer Survey, revealing that Consumers fully expect that "real" (inflation-adjusted) Wage-Earnings-Income will DEFLATE by anywhere from (-) 0.7% to as much as (-) 2.1%, depending on Income Level, with those Earning $50,000 per year or less getting CRUSHED!!! 

As for the Labor market, if not for a +329,000 increase in the Number of People NOT in the Labor Force (AKA dropouts) the Unemployment Rate would have RISEN, as 8 of 19 industries tracked by the BLS posted OUTRIGHT JOB LOSSES, the most in four years ... while Average Weekly Earnings DEFLATED in June, as 14 of 19 industries reported LESS Hours Worked, with the Aggregate Hours Index, used by economists as a proxy for GDP, posted a (-) 3.6% annualized contraction!!!

And, Revolving Credit has been DEFLATING on a monthly, and year-year basis, something seen only two other times in US History, in 2008-09 global financial crisis, and the 2020 global health crisis ... thanks in part to a RARE DECLINE in PCE Personal Income, which fell (-) $125 billion in June, leading to an across-the-board decline in Spending!!!

Strong??? Yeah, NOT

Healthy??? Yeah, NOT 

Weak??? Hell Yes!!!

ILL??? Hell Yes!!! 

So, what to do, investment wise??
I answer that by asking YOU, Got Metals??  Got Crypto??

If not, get some NOW!!! 

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As a tsunami of "supply" rolls towards the shores of the US Treasury market ... it’s hard to envision how US Bond yields don't rise further unless, or more realistically until, the Fed takes action, taking the 30-Year T- Bond above 5% and calling into question the underlying "credibility" of the US Bond market.

Indeed, the top-down secular fundamentals for both the US Treasury market and the value of the US currency is DECIDELY BEARISH, as it pertains to the Debt Black Hole the US has entered.

Oddly enough, Greg has noted a "tight" and intensifying positive correlation between the yield on the US 30-Year T-Bond and the price of Bitcoin.

In fact, the ONLY time BTC (spot futures) has been above $100,000 has correlated with a move in the US 30-Year T-Bond yield above 5%.

Moreover, BTC is breaking out on a long-term trend basis versus the 30-Year T-Bond (price) and has reached a NEW ALL-TIME HIGH versus the Treasury market AND the US stock market, on a Ratio Spread basis.

ONLY Gold is holding firm WITH Bitcoin...precisely as Greg has been highlighting for months.

Find out WHY Greg asks the question, Is Bitcoin the "new" T-Bond, and is Gold the new "US Dollar"?

And find out WHY Greg believes the simple "math" is MORE than the Bond market can handle and could be THE "cause" that drives the Fed into acquiescing to higher inflation, to protect growth and the Bond market. 

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At the risk of aging myself, I vividly remember Mad Magazine as a kid, and the goofy, enigmatic, care-free character Alfred E. Neuman.

Alfred was famous for being care-free with the buzz phrase..."What, Me Worry?"

As the Trade War intensifies, I ask, who is "worried" out there?

Well Donald Trump is hoping China is worried. The Donald is hoping that Fed Chair Powell is worried.

But both of these individuals are giving us their BEST "Alfred E. Neuman" imitation.

What? Me, Worry?

Powell can "wait", he is NOT worried.

Xi Jinping can "wait", as he just secured a $400 billion trade surplus windfall, thanks to a pre-tariff BOOM in Exports. There is NO inflation in China. Retail Sales are growing at a near +6% year-year rate. Industrial Production is surging, the Labor market has stabilized, the stock market is NOT plunging like it is in the US, leaving only the deflated Property market (and maybe the Banks) as a potential source of worry.

Bottom line, Xi is NOT "worried".

Trump has tried to bully both Xi and Powell...but neither are worried, and neither has flinched (nor is likely to anytime soon).

The ONLY people who are WORRIED right now...US Consumers, and US Equity market bulls.

This has been bearish for the USD and Stock Indexes...and wildly bullish for Gold and Canadian Gold Mining shares, JUST LIKE I'VE SAID IT WOULD BE since January, and more specifically in the last several episodes of Money, Markets & New Age Investing. 

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Stagflation, Supermassive Debt Black Holes, Consumer Cocoons, FOMC Policy, Trump Tariffs, the Financial pop-media, the Stock Market, US Dollar and Gold...Greg "talks" all these topics in this recent interview, hosted by an industry legend, the original Wall Street Whiz Kid, Peter Grandich, one-time agent and money manager to some of New York's most iconic professional athletes, now retired.

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A multitude of macro-monetary storm fronts are converging on the US Dollar and are coming from a variety of directions, putting the US currency on the defensive, and opening the door for a technically significant violation of the multi-year bull market trend.

Indeed, the US Dollar is on the verge of executing a major long-term, secular-trend-reversal to the downside, one that would (will) carry serious, game-changing consequences for ALL major markets, particularly as Germany and France move towards fiscal loosening, debt expansion, and money printing to pay for increased defense spending, driving the EUR sharply higher, and as Eastern European currencies soar on hopes for an end to the Russo-Ukraine War.

Throw in a US consumer who remains in the chokehold of inflation and is ready to "tap out", as Tariff Wars pushes inflation expectations dramatically higher, AND mix-in a mini-meltdown in asset prices linked to Semiconductor sector and Crypto...and BAM, the Perfect Storm is forming!

In today’s episode of Money, Markets & New Age Investing, "The Perfect Storm". I will share with you where you might seek "cover" from the storm!

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In this episode Greg discusses:

The two biggest macro-economic dislocations in US history, as the main secular "themes" for 2025 (and beyond).

The micro-details in the form of the simple mathematics that clearly illustrate and define those two macro-dislocations.

And the markets...what to do! Two specific strategies that anyone can deploy within the stock market to help protect the purchasing power of your money, income and wealth.

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Among several macro-themes I pushed during last January's 2024 Outlook, I note three that are intertwined with the US Consumer:

One) US Consumer cocoon would “harden” amid deflation in “real” Retail Sales.

Two) Consumers would RELY on Credit Cards to “make ends meet,” thus Delinquencies would soar under intensifying financial pressure, thanks to dangerously LOW savings and ZERO “real” wage growth.

Three) A consumer credit crunch would evolve.

BAM, we entered the final phase, so to speak, as the Fed's Consumer Credit data this week revealed a RARE monthly decline in Revolving Credit, which was inevitable, and an “event” I’ve been “anticipating” ALL YEAR!

Throw in some “hawkish” commentary drawn from the FOMC December Meeting Minutes, a stunning mis-read of the ISM Service Sector Survey results, horrific Retail Sales data, and a less-than-met-the-eye Employment Report…not to mention the second largest monthly Import total EVER and resultant BLOW OUT Trade Deficit, at a time when Tariff threats escalate...

...and my “call” for 2025 becomes crystal clear >>> the US has “crossed over” the “Macro-Event Horizon Line” and we are now captive to the inescapable gravitational pull of a Debt Black Hole. This means STAGFLATION and ultimately, more money printing/QE. AKA "monetary debasement in the purchasing power of paper currencies, wealth and income.

In that vein, the bull market in US equity indexes stands directly "in harm's way", as I stated in my most recent podcast (S3 - Ep2). Indeed, this past Friday the market CRACKED.

I discuss ALL of this, in today's podcast.

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By deciding to cut their Fed Funds Policy Rate this past week, amid a renewed rise in CPI price indexes is a clear sign that the FOMC is "acquiescing" to higher general rates of inflation.

Subsequently the US Dollar has broken out to the upside in a big way, which in turn is weighing on US Stock Indexes, Gold along with the entire Metals complex, and even Bitcoin.

What's next for the US economy, the Federal Reserve, the Dollar, and US asset prices?

Greg lays out his outlook, in today's episode of Money, Markets & New Age Investing.

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In Episode One of Season Three of Money, Markets & New Age Investing Greg Weldon defines the new "D.E.I." for the next four years in the US under Donald Trump.

The new D.E.I. is...

...DEBT

...EASY-MONEY

...INFLATION 

Hear all about the NEW AGE "trends" and find out what Greg envisions for the markets over the next few months, in Season Three, Episode One, of Money, Markets & New Age Investing! 

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Vladimir Lenin once said...

 "The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation."

While there is controversy as to whether it was in fact Lenin who said that, or the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes, who attributed that line to Lenin following an interview he conducted with the Russian leader...the fact is simple, the US Consumer is being CRUSHED, ground up between the millstones of taxation and inflation.

Here is what Keynes wrote, quoting Lenin...

"As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery."

We have bubbles all over, especially in Consumer Credit, and specifically Credit Card Debt. In fact, the total of US Credit Card Debt has risen ABOVE the level of Household Savings for the first time since 2008, while the Seriously Delinquent Rate rose to 10.83%, the highest since 2008.

With no savings and "real" wage growth that is less than one percent year-year, the Consumer is being ground up and crushed by the "millstone". The Fed WILL be FORCED to respond in the not-so-distant future, a dynamic that will meld into HUGE Trade and Budget Deficits, MASSIVE Government, Consumer and Household Debt, and the onset of the BRICs Unit to replace the USD as the means of "settling" global trade ... ALL point to a LOWER USD, which means HIGHER Commodity prices, and a STAGFLATION defined macro-economic environment ...

and...bullish breakouts in Silver and Bitcoin, in the wake of the push in Gold prices to new all-time highs.

Indeed, Vladimir would be bullish here, on Silver and BTC! Find out why in Season Two, Episode 12 of "Money, Markets & New Age Investing!" 

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