Money Tree Investing

Anthony Coniglio is here today to talk about how you can invest in cannabis stocks! Anthony co-founded New Lake Capital Partners, a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the cannabis sector. Today he's here to discusses the complexities of investing in cannabis! He touches on the challenges and opportunities in the U.S. cannabis market, such as state-by-state regulations, federal restrictions, and evolving consumer preferences. There is potential for medical cannabis, but there is also need for more research to enable broader investment and growth in the industry. 

Today we discuss... 

• Anthony's 30 years of business experience, and how it led him to co-founding New Lake.
• How the cannabis market has garnered attention since Canada's legalization in 2018, with various investment opportunities emerging in both U.S. and Canadian markets.
• Investing in cannabis can involve direct plant-touching businesses (cultivators, manufacturers, distributors) or non-plant-touching businesses (ancillary services, real estate).
• Medical cannabis is supported by a majority of Americans, but research is hindered by its Schedule I status, limiting evidence on its efficacy.
• The Schedule I to Schedule III rescheduling proposal is still pending, with a hearing scheduled for December to address comments and opposition.
• The cannabis industry is highly regulated, with indoor cultivation facilities focusing on optimizing THC content.
• Consumer preferences are shifting towards edibles and drinks rather than raw flower, indicating potential growth areas in the industry.
• Hemp differs from cannabis mainly in THC content, and can be used for various industrial applications, including products with higher THC through legal loopholes.
• The cannabis sector faces challenges due to federal regulations affecting banking and investment, impacting liquidity and institutional involvement.
• There is a need for policy reform to enable better banking services and research opportunities, which could normalize the industry and recognize its significant employment impact.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/invest-in-cannabis-stocks-anthony-coniglio-644 

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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Is Ai stealing your jobs? Today we discuss how Ai is impacting the job market and inflation. We also highlight the states where people are having a lower percentage of struggle with household expenses compared to other states. We also share possible concerns about the potential negative impacts of universal basic income and the future of work. Join us today we talk about all of this and more!

Today we discuss... 

• Some states have lower percentages of adults struggling with household expenses compared to other states.
• The states with fewer adults struggling are mostly liberal, while those with higher struggles are predominantly conservative.
• Conservative states with high welfare dependency often criticize welfare systems despite benefiting from them.
• The debate over Universal Basic Income (UBI) continues, with concerns about its potential to cause inflation and economic issues.
• AI's impact on job markets is significant, affecting both creative and technical professions, and may lead to existential questions about purpose and employment.
• Social Security, Medicare, and pensions are projected to face financial shortfalls in the coming decade.
• Receiving steady, high pay without working can reduce stress but strain the labor economy, leading to higher job prices.
• Employment data has been frequently restated, revealing that many jobs are part-time or in government sectors.
• New regulations create more government jobs to enforce them, even though the original data was already accessible.
• There is concern that AI's ability to predict the future might be limited to avoid impacts on markets and other areas.
• Centralized platforms, like Google and social media, may manipulate information to shape opinions and influence outcomes.
• Building personal AI models could help avoid manipulation by large corporations and governments.

For more information, visit the show notes at  https://moneytreepodcast.com/ai-stealing-your-jobs

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Emmanuel Daniel is here today to discuss the secret future of banking! He shares his background, and how he established "The Asian Banker," a publication focused on understanding the banking and financial landscapes in Asia. He provides insights on China’s economic transformation, especially in tech and AI. He also examines the secret future of banking, and how it will impact the global scale. 

Stay tuned as today we discuss... 

• Daniel's experiences with the banking sector across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Silicon Valley.
• Daniel talks about his deep connections with influential people in the U.S. financial system and his unique perspective on U.S. and Chinese policymaking.
• China's rise, highlighting its post-Cultural Revolution recovery, WTO accession, and economic growth driven by education and infrastructure investments.
• The evolving landscape of banking with the introduction of new technologies like AI, blockchain, and digital banking, and the challenges and opportunities they present.
• The challenges of regulating new financial technologies and the impact of digital disruption on traditional banking models.
• Technology is forcing institutions to adapt to greater personalization in finance, society, and governance.
• How young generations across the world are forming new communities and subcultures enabled by digital platforms.
• The challenge for governments, especially in more controlled states like China, is managing and steering this newfound individual empowerment.
• How India represents an untapped potential with significant structural challenges, particularly within its state apparatus and governance.
• Future trends will focus on leveraging AI for productivity gains, rather than being paralyzed by fear of the technology.
• How the US is poised to lead the world in creating a new, digitized, and financialized economy, serving as a model for others.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-future-of-banking-emmanuel-daniel-642

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Historically, every time the yield curve inverts, a recession follows, but don't fret just yet, this could be correlation, not causation. Recession tends to follow when the yield curve reverts back to normal after inversion, rather than during the inversion itself. The Federal Reserve's themselves and their actions have impacted the yield curve over the year and shifts in banking behavior can slow the economy. Changes in economic conditions and market behaviors suggest a potential recession is forthcoming, but don't panic yet, you can't predict the market.

Today we discuss... 

• The inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, which is generally considered abnormal.
• The Fed's recent rate hikes caused the short end of the yield curve to increase sharply, resulting in an inversion.
• Banks are less likely to lend during periods of an inverted yield curve because lending at a lower rate than they borrow leads to losses.
• Changes in how money is created may alter the predictive power of the yield curve inversion as a recession indicator.
• Household allocation to stocks has recently hit an all-time high, indicating extreme market complacency.
• Fixed income, traditionally seen as a conservative investment, became the worst-performing asset class in 2022 due to interest rate volatility.
• Many investors may be unaware of their true risk tolerance, having not experienced significant capital loss since the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
• Risk in investing includes not just losing money but also the loss of time, as shown by the S&P 500's negative performance from 2000 to 2013.
• Confidence in the American Dream has significantly eroded since 2012, with fewer people believing hard work will lead to success.
• Credit card defaults are reaching record highs, surpassing previous peaks seen during the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis.
• U.S. government spending is projected to increase significantly, with 87% allocated to interest expenses, Social Security, and healthcare.
• Food prices have reached new highs, contributing to financial stress for consumers.
• The cost of U.S. federal debt interest has skyrocketed, reaching $1.1 trillion annually, or $3 billion per day.
• There is concern that the Federal Reserve is not truly independent, with its actions influenced by government, banks, and other powerful entities.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/inverted-yield-curve-641 

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Andrew Stotz returns to discuss World War 2.5! Having moved from the U.S. to Thailand in 1992, Stotz has extensive experience in the Thai stock market and now runs A. Stotz Investment Research. Stotz shared his perspective on U.S. dominance in Europe, the growing tension with China, and the shift of global resources, particularly in Africa. He also highlighted the increasing complexity of international compliance regulations driven by Europe's green energy transition. Learn how all this significantly impact global markets and developing nations. 

Today we discuss... 

• How Andrew began a career as a sell-side analyst in 1993.
• Andrew's 20 years in the Thai stock market and where his experiences led him.
• Andrew's podcast My Worst Investment Ever, focusing on lessons from financial failures.
• The U.S.'s dominance over Europe and the ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• The potential collapse of the U.S. market and dollar is a concern for investors outside America.
• Uncertainty about the timing and severity of the anticipated recession.
• The strategic economic moves of China, particularly in Africa, and its implications for global power dynamics.
• The discussion includes the complexities of China's role in global capitalism and its interactions with the U.S. and Europe.
• Europe is criticized for exporting strict compliance and regulations, particularly around green energy, impacting global trade and development.
• And more!

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/world-war-2-5-andrew-stotz-640

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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The fed is cookin' up something and today we talk about their upcoming decision on interest rates, and debate on whether and how much rates should be cut. We discuss the impact of potential rate cuts - there’s concern about inadvertently stoking inflation or failing to manage a gradual economic slowdown. We also talk about market expectations, past misjudgments, and behavioral biases and how they effect investment strategies.

Today we discuss... 

• How inflation has decreased to 2.2% year over year, which is positive but may not feel beneficial to everyone.
• The Fed is expected to lower interest rates, with debate over whether it will be by 0.25% or 0.5%.
• Unemployment has risen to 4.3%, leading to concerns about a potential recession.
• Whether the Fed's actions are aimed at inflation control or market performance.
• The concept of second-level thinking in investing and the importance of understanding market expectations.
• How the Fed may lower rates once this year and not make multiple cuts unless there is a severe recession.
• Historical comparisons between past and current interest rates and unemployment rates.
• The importance of understanding market pricing, timing, and investor behavior.
• The role of behavioral finance biases, such as recency bias, in economic decision-making.
• Strategies for passive investing, portfolio rebalancing, and navigating the bond market in a changing interest rate environment.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/fed-is-cookin-639

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Kepmton Schwab is here to discuss Venture Capital (VC) investing! We also discuss the emotional and strategic aspects of selling a business and how successful sales really comes down to aligning the interests of both the seller and the buyer.

We also talk about the hot trend of institutional money pouring into private companies, especially in tech and AI, and how emerging technologies can boost a company’s value and more! Today we discuss... 

• Kempton Schwab's background as a retired executive operator and business owner, now working in advisory.
• Kempton's story about his experience in selling his company.
• How successful transactions are rooted in aligning the seller's and buyer's motivations.
• The importance of business stability, customer base, and technology in determining company valuation and multiples.
• The role of AI and emerging technologies in enhancing existing value propositions rather than creating new ones.
• Public and private markets, and the opportunities and challenges in technology and traditional sectors.
• The trend of institutional money chasing private companies and how it impacts valuations and the industry.
• The significance of critical thinking and understanding a company's value proposition before investing.
• Practical takeaways for investors and business owners considering selling their companies.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/vc-investing-kempton-schwab-638 

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Powell was in Jackson Hole last week and today we discuss some Jackson Hole Revelation on the future of the market and interest. We also talk the current election and all of the ins and outs of election strategy. Then, we veer into how social media is changing elections and how it feels like people, especially comedians, are holding back more than they used to because of cancel culture. We reflected on how trends, whether in culture or finance, often swing to extremes before eventually balancing out. 

Today we discuss... 

• How neither major party is focusing on policy; Trump's policies are somewhat known, but Harris has been silent.
• The current strategy of staying silent and letting the press handle the narrative reflects a shift in political tactics.
• There is concern about electing a candidate without clear policy positions or public discourse.
• Social media has heightened expectations for political figures to be vocal and transparent.
• Criticisms of Harris include skepticism about her ability to change policies while already in office.
• Historical examples, such as Johnson and Kennedy, show that VPs may have differing policies from Presidents.
• The pendulum of cultural and political trends often swings from one extreme to the other, influencing market behavior.
• Social media and current cultural dynamics affect how comedy and political commentary are received.
• The market trends, such as real estate prices, are influenced by broader economic conditions and cultural shifts.
• Reversion to the mean is a concept where extreme market movements often correct back to an equilibrium.
• Understanding financial trends and market cycles can help in making informed investment decisions.
• What Powell discussed at Jackson Hole.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/jackson-hole-revelation-637

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Roger Silk joins us to discuss TIPs, treasuries, and inflation, and more! He explains the nuances of the repo market, potential risks, and its role in the broader financial system.

Silk also touches on the impact of interest rates on asset values and the banking sector from his time at World Bank. Silk also discusses complex financial products like treasury inflation-protected securities! 

Join us today as we discuss... 

• Roger discusses his background, including his PhD in applied economics and founding of Sterling Foundation Management.
• Roger describes his work at the World Bank, focusing on treasury operations and the repo market.
• The potential problems in the repo market, including issues during financial crises.
• How interest rates impact asset valuations and bank profits, particularly during periods of zero interest rates.
• The role of human capital in risk assessment and the importance of individual goals in portfolio management.
• The risks associated with inflation, especially in relation to complex financial instruments like TIPS.
• The challenges and complexities of understanding and investing in TIPS as an inflation hedge.
• Alternative assets like gold and farmland, distinguishing between gold as money and farmland as an investment.
• Roger's book The Investor's Dilemma Decoded.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/treasuries-and-inflation-roger-silk-636

A lot of volatility exists in the stock market right now, but did you know you can actually benefit from it?

Today we talk about how market reactions are driven by expectations versus reality, with surprises like unexpected Fed actions causing significant volatility. 

Political uncertainty certainly has an impact on the market and you can't even rely on Wall Street predictions. That's why it's crucial to understand market sentiment and how everyone’s collective behavior influences market trends over trying to predict the market itself! 

Today we discuss... 

• The recent stock market volatility and the aim to understand it without getting bogged down in specifics.
• How market reactions often follow Fed announcements, but these are just correlations, not direct causes.
• How volatility can also be triggered by political uncertainty, such as the potential outcomes of upcoming elections.
• The Fed’s future rate moves and their unexpectedness contribute significantly to market shifts.
• Wall Street predictions can be inaccurate, with current expectations showing a high chance of rate cuts in the future despite past errors.
• People don't fully realize inflation's impact because it is largely contained.
• Personal inflation rates, such as grocery bills or car prices, may be much higher than CPI figures suggest.
• The old methods of addressing inflation, like investing in the S&P 500, might not be effective against current "silent inflation."
• The currency market is massive, and the carry trade is typically suited for large institutions rather than individual investors.
• Lumber prices have dropped significantly, correlating with the housing market and broader economic conditions.
• Housing affordability has decreased, with higher income levels required to afford typical homes in many markets.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/volatility-exists-635