Money Tree Investing

Jeff Hulett shares how a proper personal finance education can build the habits that grow lifelong wealth. Our cognitive biases impact financial decision-making, often work against us. He highlights the role of habits and commitment devices in overcoming these biases, while also discussing the dangers of modern marketing and the manipulation of data. We also touch on how evolutionary biology still influences our financial behaviors today.

We discuss...

• Jeff Hewlett shares his background in finance, mathematics, economics, and experience in banking and consulting.
• Jeff discusses his involvement in AI, machine learning, and how these technologies have been evolving over decades.
• He talks about his current role leading Personal Finance Reimagined, a platform focused on decision-making and financial education.
• How wealth distribution challenges are attributed to evolutionary biology and consumerism.
• Jeff emphasizes the importance of creating good financial habits and using commitment devices, such as robo-advisors.
• AI and its impact on decision-making, especially its potential for persuasion.
• Jeff highlights the significance of aligning decision processes with natural human tendencies, like binary decisions.
• How the U.S. education finance system preys on availability bias, deferring loan payments to the future while hiding present costs.
• College prices are excessively high, leading to concerns about the return on investment (ROI) for students.
• The value of a college degree is more about demonstrating the ability to work hard and sustain effort over four years.
• Community college can be a cost-effective route to a degree, demonstrating both financial savvy and resilience.
• There's a cognitive bias known as "time discounting" that leads people to struggle with understanding the compounding value of time.
• Confirmation bias affects political and social views, often reinforced by media echo chambers.
• Media, both legacy and social, plays a significant role in shaping biased worldviews, sometimes feeding incomplete or selective information.
• There's a growing generational divide in media trust, with older generations more likely to trust media than younger ones.
• The rise of narrowcasting in media has led to the creation of echo chambers where people only hear confirming viewpoints.
• Consumers of free media or social platforms are often the "product" being monetized, even when they think they aren't paying for content.
• AI and technology add to the complexity of discerning truth, as biases are baked into data sources, and deep fakes further obscure reality.
• The challenge for society is figuring out how to discern accurate information amid pervasive bias and misinformation.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/personal-finance-education-jeff-hulett-650

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Megan Gorman | The Wealth Intersection
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Hurricane Helene was devastating, and it impacted so much more than just Asheville. Hurricanes can cause major claims, leading to a temporary dip in stock prices for these insurers, creating a chance to buy at a discount. Although insurers face huge costs when these disasters strike, they benefit from collecting high premiums that continue to rise in coastal areas. Only time will tell how the impacted areas, the insurance companies, and the stock market will recover in the aftermath.

We discuss...

• Hurricane Helene and the other hurricane that is on it's way.
• The opportunity for investors to buy discounted property and casualty insurance stocks during high-claim seasons.
• Property casualty insurers' strength lies in their ability to collect premiums and invest the float before claims are paid.
• Warren Buffett's investment strategy with property casualty insurance, leveraging the float for long-term investments like Coca-Cola.
• Buffett's investment prowess and how insurers gain an advantage by not needing to borrow money to grow.
• The complex nature of analyzing property casualty insurers, which requires specific metrics.
• A note on Hurricane Helene and the financial impact of other costly hurricanes.
• Update on the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rate cuts and fluctuating market expectations.
• Warning about the unreliability of government data, especially close to elections, and how market participants respond to such data.
• People are uncertain about market trends, and data may not always be reliable.
• Data manipulation in government reports has occurred, so numbers should be taken as guides, not definitive facts.
• A significant number of government employees were hired in September, influencing employment statistics.
• Elections add volatility to markets, with uncertainty often causing swings before stabilizing afterward.
• Corporate media often shapes narratives, leaving people feeling frustrated and distrustful of information.
• Extremist factions in politics are gaining influence, with candidates catering to these groups for votes.
• Many voters align with their party regardless of the candidate, reducing the significance of "undecided" voters.
• Wall Street prefers certainty, with market trends stabilizing after election results are confirmed.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/hurricane-helene-649

Josh Radman joins us today to discuss a little discussed topic on Money Tree Podcast: Decoding RSU, ISO and NQ SOs. He also shares how government programs and how they impact our labor market. He shares an example from local Broogers, which struggled to find staff and often received resumes from unemployable candidates. Josh also touches on how employment data has been revised to show many jobs are part-time or within the government, driven by new regulations. Shifting gears, Josh explores the idea that large AI models, like ChatGPT, might be throttled to prevent them from predicting the future, potentially disrupting markets. He also highlights the critical need for clean, reliable data for AI to function properly, as current government data is often inaccurate or manipulated.

Today we discuss...

• Josh Radman shares his background, from General Mills to tech companies like Walmart e-commerce, where he encountered confusion around equity compensation.
• How his frustration with understanding ISOs, RSUs, and NSOs led him to found Presidio Advisors, a firm focused on helping millennials with equity compensation.
• He emphasizes the importance of balancing tax considerations with investment risk and prioritizing financial goals.
• Radman discusses regret minimization as a tool for decision-making, helping clients navigate the risks of equity compensation.
• Companies often fail to educate employees about equity compensation due to legal concerns, leaving employees to navigate complex tax and financial decisions.
• The complexity of ISOs, NSOs, and RSUs requires advanced planning and understanding, especially when managing liquidity events like IPOs.
• How long-term capital gains tax rates are preferable (0%, 15%, or 20%) compared to ordinary income tax rates (up to 37%).
• Employees often face a limited post-termination exercise period (typically three months) to exercise stock options after leaving a company.
• It's important to assess short-term, mid-term, and long-term cash needs when considering exercising stock options.
• Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) are taxed as ordinary income upon vesting without requiring cash outlay to exercise.
• A common misconception is that you must hold RSUs for a year to achieve optimal tax treatment; this is not necessary.
• Employees often underestimate total exposure to their company's stock due to both explicit and implicit risks.
• Cognitive biases, such as the endowment effect, can lead individuals to overvalue their RSUs and resist selling.
• Market returns are skewed, with a small number of companies generating significant returns; diversification is essential to mitigate risk.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/decoding-rsu-iso-nqso-josh-radman-648

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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Election season upon us so you know that there will be an irrational impact of politics that is going to hit the market this fall. We also discuss the aging of political figures like Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the impact of stress on leaders. We explore generational cycles, particularly the "Fourth Turning" theory, and reflect on media influence and propaganda, both in the U.S. and globally.

Today we discuss...

• The U.S. presidential candidates and the physical and mental demands of the campaign trail, especially for older politicians.
• They explore the concept of "fourth turning" and generational cycles of conflict, predicting ongoing societal tensions.
• Global perspectives on the U.S. are discussed, contrasting media portrayals and public opinions abroad
• How "truth" is often subjective, shaped by perspective and opinion, especially in political contexts.
• Both sides in a debate typically view the other as misinformed or evil, leading to a polarized environment.
• The upcoming election period is expected to be filled with misinformation and humor, as political discourse tends to devolve.
• Investment markets exhibit similar behavior, where individuals often believe they can predict outcomes, leading to misguided confidence.
• Historical economic events, such as the housing market in the late '90s and 2007, demonstrate patterns of irrational behavior among investors.
• Wall Street often presents a biased perspective, promoting buying to maintain market stability and profits.
• People become emotionally invested in their stocks or political affiliations, which clouds their judgment and objectivity.
• Discussions of gold, silver, and cryptocurrency reveal that tangible assets are often viewed as safe havens in uncertain economic climates.
• Emotional decision-making plays a significant role in how individuals approach investments, especially concerning real estate versus stocks.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/irrational-impact-of-politics-647

Peter Berezin is here today to discuss the global meltdown that is coming! The chief strategist at BCA Research discusses the potential for an upcoming U.S. recession. Peter predicts that a recession could lead to a significant market crash, even without deep economic downturns, much like the 2001 recession. He also touches on inflation, budget deficits, and the government's ability to counteract economic downturns.

Today we discuss...

• Predictions of a US recession to start later this year or early next year, contradicting the expectation of a soft landing.
• Economic insulation from job openings and excess pandemic savings is depleting, cooling the economy.
• Real estate markets, including commercial, residential, and single-family homes, look worrying due to high vacancy rates and rising delinquency.
• Small regional banks could face problems due to their exposure to commercial real estate, potentially leading to a steady stream of bad news.
• During a recession, Berezin expects opportunities to buy solid companies at a discount, particularly in tech and healthcare.
• Inflation is expected to stay under control over the next 12 months due to a weakening economy, falling job openings, and lower wage growth.
• Peter explains that printing money to finance fiscal deficits can be inflationary, particularly when unemployment rises and fiscal spending increases.
• The large US budget deficit is troubling, especially as counter-cyclical fiscal policy might be limited during future economic downturns.
• Concern about the continued printing of money in bad times, potentially leading to economic imbalances like income inequality.
• Raising taxes is suggested as a possible path forward, though political challenges could impede this.
• Tax increases are likely if certain tax cuts expire, with potential cuts to defense or social spending as other budget-balancing measures.
• Concerns about worsening fiscal scenarios prompt the idea of hedging with TIPS and gold.
• Global markets, especially outside the U.S., are seen as more attractive due to valuation gaps, with emerging markets managing inflation better recently.
• Commodities, particularly metals, are seen as benefiting from the green energy transition, while oil demand may decrease.
• Gold is positioned as a hedge against geopolitical volatility and long-term inflation, though rising bond yields have made it less attractive recently.
• Bitcoin is unlikely to become a central bank asset due to its anonymity and governments' need to monitor and tax transactions.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-meltdown-peter-berezin-646

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Corporate media is heavy on the propaganda these day! It's hard to tell what is real in the news anymore. But what we do know for sure is the Federal Reserve made a surprising decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, reducing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. We talk the implications of this unexpected move. It's hard to understand the Fed's rationale so it's important to understand the data that may not be publicly available and questioning what signals the Fed is responding to. That's why you need to stay vigilant when it comes to the news and where you're getting your facts and data from.

Today we discuss...

• The Fed surprised many by cutting the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
• Concerns arose about the sudden need for significant rate cuts, indicating potential underlying economic issues.
• Many speculate that the Fed possesses data not publicly available, raising concerns about hidden economic pressures.
• The Fed's decisions are influenced by unemployment trends more than inflation or stock market performance.
• Speculations linger about whether the Fed's actions could influence the upcoming election, although this is not typically their mandate.
• Overall, the Fed's strong statements indicate a serious concern about economic conditions, prompting scrutiny and analysis from investors and economists alike.
• The speaker argues that news media often functions as high-grade propaganda, which can cloud rational thinking.
• The rise of the internet in the 1990s disrupted traditional media by providing free access to information.
• People shifted from relying on traditional media outlets to independent sources like blogs and podcasts.
• The limitations of their data access compared to government or mainstream media.
• The media employs attention-grabbing tactics, such as sensationalism and loud broadcasts, to attract viewership.
• This reliance on dramatic presentation often overshadows the delivery of accurate information.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/heavy-on-the-propaganda-645

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Anthony Coniglio is here today to talk about how you can invest in cannabis stocks! Anthony co-founded New Lake Capital Partners, a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on the cannabis sector. Today he's here to discusses the complexities of investing in cannabis! He touches on the challenges and opportunities in the U.S. cannabis market, such as state-by-state regulations, federal restrictions, and evolving consumer preferences. There is potential for medical cannabis, but there is also need for more research to enable broader investment and growth in the industry.

Today we discuss...

• Anthony's 30 years of business experience, and how it led him to co-founding New Lake.
• How the cannabis market has garnered attention since Canada's legalization in 2018, with various investment opportunities emerging in both U.S. and Canadian markets.
• Investing in cannabis can involve direct plant-touching businesses (cultivators, manufacturers, distributors) or non-plant-touching businesses (ancillary services, real estate).
• Medical cannabis is supported by a majority of Americans, but research is hindered by its Schedule I status, limiting evidence on its efficacy.
• The Schedule I to Schedule III rescheduling proposal is still pending, with a hearing scheduled for December to address comments and opposition.
• The cannabis industry is highly regulated, with indoor cultivation facilities focusing on optimizing THC content.
• Consumer preferences are shifting towards edibles and drinks rather than raw flower, indicating potential growth areas in the industry.
• Hemp differs from cannabis mainly in THC content, and can be used for various industrial applications, including products with higher THC through legal loopholes.
• The cannabis sector faces challenges due to federal regulations affecting banking and investment, impacting liquidity and institutional involvement.
• There is a need for policy reform to enable better banking services and research opportunities, which could normalize the industry and recognize its significant employment impact.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/invest-in-cannabis-stocks-anthony-coniglio-644

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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Is Ai stealing your jobs? Today we discuss how Ai is impacting the job market and inflation. We also highlight the states where people are having a lower percentage of struggle with household expenses compared to other states. We also share possible concerns about the potential negative impacts of universal basic income and the future of work. Join us today we talk about all of this and more!

Today we discuss...

• Some states have lower percentages of adults struggling with household expenses compared to other states.
• The states with fewer adults struggling are mostly liberal, while those with higher struggles are predominantly conservative.
• Conservative states with high welfare dependency often criticize welfare systems despite benefiting from them.
• The debate over Universal Basic Income (UBI) continues, with concerns about its potential to cause inflation and economic issues.
• AI's impact on job markets is significant, affecting both creative and technical professions, and may lead to existential questions about purpose and employment.
• Social Security, Medicare, and pensions are projected to face financial shortfalls in the coming decade.
• Receiving steady, high pay without working can reduce stress but strain the labor economy, leading to higher job prices.
• Employment data has been frequently restated, revealing that many jobs are part-time or in government sectors.
• New regulations create more government jobs to enforce them, even though the original data was already accessible.
• There is concern that AI's ability to predict the future might be limited to avoid impacts on markets and other areas.
• Centralized platforms, like Google and social media, may manipulate information to shape opinions and influence outcomes.
• Building personal AI models could help avoid manipulation by large corporations and governments.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/ai-stealing-your-jobs

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Emmanuel Daniel is here today to discuss the secret future of banking! He shares his background, and how he established "The Asian Banker," a publication focused on understanding the banking and financial landscapes in Asia. He provides insights on China's economic transformation, especially in tech and AI. He also examines the secret future of banking, and how it will impact the global scale.

Stay tuned as today we discuss...

• Daniel's experiences with the banking sector across Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Silicon Valley.
• Daniel talks about his deep connections with influential people in the U.S. financial system and his unique perspective on U.S. and Chinese policymaking.
• China's rise, highlighting its post-Cultural Revolution recovery, WTO accession, and economic growth driven by education and infrastructure investments.
• The evolving landscape of banking with the introduction of new technologies like AI, blockchain, and digital banking, and the challenges and opportunities they present.
• The challenges of regulating new financial technologies and the impact of digital disruption on traditional banking models.
• Technology is forcing institutions to adapt to greater personalization in finance, society, and governance.
• How young generations across the world are forming new communities and subcultures enabled by digital platforms.
• The challenge for governments, especially in more controlled states like China, is managing and steering this newfound individual empowerment.
• How India represents an untapped potential with significant structural challenges, particularly within its state apparatus and governance.
• Future trends will focus on leveraging AI for productivity gains, rather than being paralyzed by fear of the technology.
• How the US is poised to lead the world in creating a new, digitized, and financialized economy, serving as a model for others.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-future-of-banking-emmanuel-daniel-642

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Historically, every time the yield curve inverts, a recession follows, but don't fret just yet, this could be correlation, not causation. Recession tends to follow when the yield curve reverts back to normal after inversion, rather than during the inversion itself. The Federal Reserve's themselves and their actions have impacted the yield curve over the year and shifts in banking behavior can slow the economy. Changes in economic conditions and market behaviors suggest a potential recession is forthcoming, but don't panic yet, you can't predict the market.

Today we discuss...

• The inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, which is generally considered abnormal.
• The Fed's recent rate hikes caused the short end of the yield curve to increase sharply, resulting in an inversion.
• Banks are less likely to lend during periods of an inverted yield curve because lending at a lower rate than they borrow leads to losses.
• Changes in how money is created may alter the predictive power of the yield curve inversion as a recession indicator.
• Household allocation to stocks has recently hit an all-time high, indicating extreme market complacency.
• Fixed income, traditionally seen as a conservative investment, became the worst-performing asset class in 2022 due to interest rate volatility.
• Many investors may be unaware of their true risk tolerance, having not experienced significant capital loss since the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
• Risk in investing includes not just losing money but also the loss of time, as shown by the S&P 500's negative performance from 2000 to 2013.
• Confidence in the American Dream has significantly eroded since 2012, with fewer people believing hard work will lead to success.
• Credit card defaults are reaching record highs, surpassing previous peaks seen during the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis.
• U.S. government spending is projected to increase significantly, with 87% allocated to interest expenses, Social Security, and healthcare.
• Food prices have reached new highs, contributing to financial stress for consumers.
• The cost of U.S. federal debt interest has skyrocketed, reaching $1.1 trillion annually, or $3 billion per day.
• There is concern that the Federal Reserve is not truly independent, with its actions influenced by government, banks, and other powerful entities.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/inverted-yield-curve-641

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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