Money Tree Investing

New technology is coming soon and here is how to invest in the future! Inventor and investor Pablos Holman shares his journey from early computer hacking to co-founding Blue Origin, leading a prolific deep-tech lab, and now backing "mad scientists" building hard technologies beyond software. He believes Silicon Valley has over-indexed on easy software gains while neglecting transformative advances in hardware, energy, and real-world systems. He explains how breakthroughs in computation now let us model and simulate the physical world, from disease eradication to supply chains, marking a toolkit upgrade on par with the steam engine, while also wrestling with the social, regulatory, and human challenges that slow progress. We talk AI's real potential beyond chatbots, the urgent need to 10x global energy, decentralization vs. centralization in tech, the societal costs of social media, and even more!

We discuss...

• Pablos Holman described his path from early computer hacking to founding deep-tech ventures like Blue Origin and running a VC fund focused on inventors building real-world, non-software technologies.
• Pablos framed technological progress as periodic "toolkit upgrades," comparing today's advances in computation and simulation to the impact of the steam engine.
• Modern computational models enable simulations of complex systems like disease spread, cities, and supply chains, dramatically improving decision-making.
• The conversation highlighted AI's true value as modeling the world while warning of over-centralization and privacy tradeoffs in the near term.
• Global energy scarcity is the real bottleneck to progress and peace, requiring a massive scale-up in clean, cheap energy.
• Nuclear power is the only viable path to global energy production and described new reactor designs nearing deployment.
• The discussion explored how regulatory and political systems, rather than technology itself, are often the biggest obstacles to innovation, especially in healthcare and energy.
• Pablos criticized social media for societal damage but argued the core issue is human responsibility and misuse rather than the technology itself.
• AI and crypto represent an open experimental phase where individuals can still influence outcomes before power consolidates.
• Pablos encouraged people to actively engage with and help build meaningful technologies instead of passively reacting to technological change.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Diana Perkins | Trading With Diana

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/how-to-invest-in-the-future-790

Dump your tech because this sector is booming and we are going to tell you what it is! Today we talk the sharp risk-off shift across markets as recent selloffs in crypto, precious metals, and especially technology reflect excessive greed being unwound rather than a systemic collapse. This is not a buy-the-dip environment, and you shouldn't be chasing volatility-heavy assets like crypto and metals too early. We also highlight a clear rotation of liquidity away from growth and speculative assets into value-oriented, defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, industrials, utilities, energy, and select international stocks, as these boring, low-beta areas are sometimes outperforming amid tech weakness, layoffs, earnings disappointments, and rising macro uncertainty, making capital preservationn and patience more important than chasing rebounds.

We discuss...

• Markets are undergoing a clear risk-off rotation, with speculative assets like tech, crypto, and precious metals selling off after periods of extreme greed and overcrowded positioning.
• Precious metals remain in a long-term bull market but may require one to two years of consolidation before sustainably moving higher.
• Crypto's sharp drawdowns and volatility are described as a feature, not a flaw, but current volatility suggests it is not yet an attractive risk-reward entry.
• Capital is rotating into value and defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, energy, and industrials.
• Value stocks are outperforming growth stocks, marking a notable regime shift from the past decade's market leadership.
• Defensive, cash-flow-generating businesses are highlighted as portfolio stabilizers during periods of market stress.
• Weakening labor market data and rising layoffs are adding to macro uncertainty and undermining the soft-landing narrative.
• Correlations across risk assets are rising, reducing the diversification benefits of traditionally speculative assets like crypto.
• Market indices such as the NASDAQ are less reflective of pure tech weakness due to non-tech constituents providing offsetting support.
• Liquidity is described as moving like water, flowing out of stressed sectors and into areas showing relative strength.
• The January seasonal "risk-on" effect failed to materialize, suggesting macro forces are overpowering historical patterns.
• Short-term technical indicators show elevated volatility but not yet a definitive structural breakdown.
• Investors are encouraged to focus on where money is flowing rather than what looks cheap after a selloff.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/this-sector-is-booming-789

Commercial real estate veteran Ben Reinberg shares how he uses hard assets and smart debt to strengthen his investing portfolio. He shares his journey from starting in his early 20s to building a national hard-asset portfolio across industrial, office, retail, multifamily, and medical real estate. We talk the importance of the "ability to hold" assets through cycles by avoiding over-leverage, maintaining reserves, and structuring smart debt. Ben outlines where commercial real estate sits in the current cycle, highlighting looming debt maturities, distressed opportunities, and the potential for attractive buying conditions over the next few years.

We discuss...

• Ben Reinberg explains how he built wealth starting in his early 20s by focusing on hard assets, particularly commercial real estate, as a long-term strategy for cash flow and financial control.
• He emphasizes the importance of becoming a true expert in a specific asset class rather than spreading focus too broadly.
• He shares lessons from his first industrial deal, including managing tenant loss, repositioning assets, and creating value through active ownership.
• A central theme was the "ability to hold," meaning structuring investments to survive any market cycle without being forced to sell.
• He stressed using smart debt, avoiding over-leverage (generally keeping loan-to-value around 65%), and maintaining ample reserves.
• The discussion highlighted why medical office real estate is recession- and pandemic-resilient, with high tenant renewal rates and stable cash flow.
• Reinberg explained how inflation, tariffs, and rising costs affect tenants and property operations across different real estate sectors.
• The episode explored how real estate acts as an inflation hedge through rent growth, escalators, and long-term asset appreciation.
• They discussed the current commercial real estate downturn, driven by higher rates, falling values, and large amounts of debt coming due.
• Reinberg argued that the next few years may present some of the best commercial real estate buying opportunities in decades.
• He warned investors to be cautious, underwrite deals conservatively, and focus on tenant quality and market fundamentals.
• We have an optimistic outlook for 2026–2028, expecting lower rates, increased liquidity, more transactions, and improving economic stability.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/hard-assets-and-smart-debt-ben-reinberg-788

Silver crashed! Today we focus on a historic bout of volatility in precious metals following months of extreme, unhealthy gains. We figure out if the selloff was driven by the announcement of a new Fed chair or severe technical overextension, crowded positioning that triggered profit-taking, shorting, and forced de-risking. We also talked the implications of a potentially growth-leaning but inflation-conscious Fed, ongoing structural risks like debt, deficits, and sticky inflation, and why monetary policy alone can't solve them. We reviewed the January market performance, and noticed strength in energy, materials, commodities, and international equities versus lagging tech and software. Markets are rotating regimes, not ending trends, and investors should focus on risk management, diversification, and long-term planning rather than reacting emotionally to short-term chaos.

We discuss...

• We unpacked a historic spike in precious-metals volatility, with silver experiencing extreme, record-level swings after months of unsustainably rapid gains.
• The Fed chair news was described as a "match, not the bonfire," triggering a correction that was already statistically inevitable at extreme standard deviations.
• Volatility selling, options hedging, and large institutional short positioning likely amplified the downside move in silver.
• The gold-silver ratio had reached stretched levels, making a snapback or rebalancing between gold and silver unavoidable.
• Despite the violent correction, the broader precious-metals bull trend was viewed as intact rather than broken.
• Gold was described as healthier than silver due to steady institutional and central-bank buying.
• We covered how computers, systematic strategies, and risk managers now dominate market mechanics at volatility extremes.
• Rate cuts may come sooner than expected, but structural issues like debt, deficits, and sticky inflation remain unresolved.
• Markets so far reacted modestly outside of commodities, suggesting rotation rather than systemic stress.
• Energy and commodities were highlighted as key areas to watch in an inflation-sensitive environment.
• International equities significantly outperformed U.S. markets, reinforcing the case for global diversification.
• A small bank failure highlighted lingering credit and balance-sheet risks despite limited systemic impact.
• Midterm election seasonality was discussed as a potential source of higher volatility and uneven returns.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/silver-crashed-787

Jean-Baptiste Wautier is here to talk growing global debt and the impact on the economy. He draws on decades of private-equity and macro experience to discuss accelerating global change, arguing that rising debt, AI, and political polarization are reshaping the economic and geopolitical order.

We discuss Europe's recent market strength, China as an unavoidable, though risky, investment given its scale and AI ambitions, and gold and crypto as hedges rather than true currency alternatives. He also warms that global debt dynamics will force restructuring in places like Japan and parts of Europe, and concludes that AI is likely transformative but slower and more socially disruptive than markets assume, ultimately requiring a rethink of productivity, employment, and even how economic progress is measured.

We discuss...

• Jean-Baptiste Wautier argued that today's environment reflects an acceleration of long-term forces—debt accumulation, AI as a fourth industrial revolution, and rising political polarization—rather than a completely unprecedented moment.
• He suggested populism can be reversed without extreme disruption if governments deliver tangible economic fixes, citing Italy as an example of pragmatic reform restoring democratic confidence.
• Wautier emphasized that middle-class affordability, youth opportunity, and fiscal credibility are the core issues driving political instability in Western democracies.
• He criticized the lack of democratic oversight of central banks, arguing monetary policy has become too consequential to remain entirely insulated from public accountability.
• He believes there is no painless solution to global debt problems, with Europe facing unavoidable austerity while the U.S. may temporarily "get away with it" due to dollar dominance and capital inflows.
• Europe's recent market outperformance was described as a short-term valuation and diversification blip rather than a reflection of improving fundamentals.
• Wautier argued the dollar has no credible fiat challenger, reinforcing its dominance despite past U.S. policy mistakes.
• Gold and cryptocurrencies were discussed primarily as hedges against dollar risk rather than true replacements for the global reserve system.
• Bitcoin was criticized as too volatile to function as a reserve or transactional currency, regardless of its popularity as a speculative store of value.
• Stablecoins were viewed as a strategic U.S. response to crypto, potentially extending dollar dominance into digital finance.
• Demographic decline across developed economies was identified as a structural constraint that traditional growth models cannot easily resolve.
• Wautier argued AI adoption is moving faster than societies can adapt, limiting near-term productivity gains while increasing long-term disruption.
• AI's ultimate impact will be profound but slow, likely forcing a reassessment of GDP and other traditional measures of economic progress.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/growing-global-debt-jean-baptiste-wautier-786

The global economy is shifting into a "run-it-hot" inflationary growth phase driven by political incentives, energy demand, and the need to manage unsustainable debt and here is how to profit on it. The U.S. is deliberately favoring high growth and persistent inflation to inflate away debt and support asset prices ahead of midterms, even as official data and climate narratives are treated with skepticism. Today we talk about how governments historically deal with excess debt, why inflation plus growth is the most politically viable path, and how this environment favors commodities, real assets, and cyclicals over overvalued big tech. Markets are rotating, not simply "risk-on/risk-off," so you should be wary against blindly sticking with what worked in the past. Stay flexible as policy volatility, geopolitical shifts, and changing economic forces reshape the investment landscape.

We discuss...

• Energy policy is rapidly shifting in favor of expansion as tech-driven demand makes energy security a political priority, sidelining prior climate and regulatory concerns.
• The "run-it-hot economy" framework argues the U.S. is intentionally pursuing high growth alongside persistent inflation to manage excessive sovereign debt and support asset prices.
• With midterms approaching, political incentives favor policies that keep markets strong, reduce visible costs like energy and housing, and maintain public confidence rather than fiscal austerity.
• Inflation and growth together are framed as the most realistic way for governments to inflate away debt without triggering default or severe political backlash.
• Historical economic regimes are outlined to show how different inflation and growth combinations favor different asset classes.
• The current environment resembles an inflationary boom, which historically benefits commodities, real assets, and stores of value.
• Big tech and innovation-led assets are seen as potential underperformers in an inflationary, rotational market after years of dominance.
• Market leadership is narrowing and rotating, with small caps, mid caps, and non-U.S. markets showing stronger early-year performance.
• The S&P 500's heavy concentration in a small number of tech stocks increases risk as leadership weakens.
• Investors are cautioned against blindly rebalancing or clinging to past winners without reassessing changing tailwinds and headwinds.
• Fraud reduction and spending audits may improve trust and optics but are unlikely to materially fix long-term debt problems.
• Energy's small weight in major indexes is highlighted as a potential mispricing given its economic importance.
• Seasonal market patterns suggest near-term volatility is likely even within a broader bullish rotation.
• Investors must adapt portfolios to evolving macro regimes rather than assume past strategies will continue to work.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/how-to-profit-785

Shellee Howard is on the show today to talk how to do college without crushign debt for your kids. She shares how her journey as a "mom on a mission" led her to help families navigate the college process strategically, emphasizing early preparation, self-discovery, and return on investment rather than prestige alone. She explains why overcrowded school counselors fall short, how students should clarify their values, talents, and career goals before choosing colleges, and why college should be viewed as a business decision and a stepping stone to adulthood, and not a status symbol. With the right planning, families can avoid debt, maximize scholarships, and choose schools that truly align with a student's future goals.

We discuss...

• Shellee Howard explained how her experience guiding her own children to graduate college debt-free inspired her career as an independent college consultant.
• She described why high school guidance counselors are often unable to provide comprehensive college planning due to overcrowding and competing responsibilities.
• The discussion emphasized starting college preparation early by helping students identify their core values, strengths, and long-term interests rather than focusing only on grades or test scores.
• Shellee stressed that college readiness is about preparing for adulthood, not chasing prestige or comparing against other families.
• We explore how poor financial literacy leads many students to take on unnecessary debt without understanding return on investment.
• Shellee argued that college is a business decision and should be evaluated like an investment, with scholarships, fit, and outcomes prioritized over name recognition alone.
• Many students are not ready at 18 to make high-stakes decisions and why exploration through service, internships, and extracurriculars matters.
• The value of college branding versus actual educational and career outcomes are debated, with examples showing that different paths work for different students.
• Shellee outlined key timing considerations, including the critical importance of middle school and early high school years for maximizing opportunity and financial aid.
• Parents were encouraged to stay actively involved in guiding their children rather than leaving major financial and life decisions to teenagers.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/college-without-crushing-debt-shellee-howard-784

We're in the middle of a run it hot economy. Today our discussion ranged from geopolitics into markets, including precious metals. Silver's recent surge is best understood as a reversion toward historical gold–silver ratios rather than a knowable fundamental catalyst. Silver's parabolic move looks unstable compared to gold's healthier, slower uptrend. But no one can truly know why prices move, so investors should be clear about why they own precious metals since that purpose should drive allocation size and risk tolerance. We also talk macro conditions, the U.S. may be pursuing an "inflationary boom" or "run it hot" strategy to offset high debt and valuations, which would favor real assets like commodities, gold, and real estate over long-duration bonds. It's important to manage fear, avoid extreme predictions, stay diversified, and pay close attention to structure, incentives, taxes, and shifting global leadership rather than relying on narratives or past performance.

We discuss...

• Precious metals are a key focus, with gold behaving in a steady, healthy bull market while silver experienced a sharp and unstable surge.
• The gold-to-silver ratio was discussed as historically stretched and now reverting toward long-term norms, helping explain silver's outperformance.
• Silver was highlighted as both a monetary metal and a critical industrial commodity listed by the U.S. government as strategically important.
• The parabolic nature of silver's recent price action is risky and vulnerable to sharp pullbacks or policy interventions like margin hikes.
• Investors should define why they own precious metals—portfolio balance, trend participation, or protection against monetary risk.
• Fear-driven investing and "end of the world" thinking are harmful to rational portfolio decisions.
• The idea of an "inflationary boom" or "run-it-hot" economic strategy was presented as the likely policy path forward.
• Big tech is increasingly fragile and potentially misaligned with an inflationary-growth regime.
• International markets were noted as having recently outperformed U.S. equities despite America-first political narratives.
• Valuations in U.S. equities were described as high and structurally fragile, even as the bull market remains intact.
• Technicals and momentum are dominating fundamentals in the current market cycle.
• Tax considerations are an often-overlooked but critical factor in portfolio construction and asset selection.
• Bitcoin's unique tax treatment and classification as property offer planning advantages versus securities.
• Be wary about complacency, overconcentration, and narrative-driven investing in a late-cycle market.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/run-it-hot-economy-783

Jon Ostenson is here today to share secret franchising profits for investors in 2026! Jon tells about his journey from corporate consulting into franchising and explains why non-food franchises can be a compelling, tax-advantaged path to business ownership, offering proven models, franchisor support, and built-in peer networks that often outperform startups or buying existing businesses. He compares franchising with starting or acquiring businesses, highlighted the appeal of "non-sexy" but durable industries resistant to trends and disruption. Jon also talks semi-passive ownership models, scaling through multi-territory ownership or acquisitions, and more that make franchising an attractive option for professionals seeking diversification, cash flow, and long-term growth.

We discuss...

• Jon Ostenson describes his transition from corporate roles at into franchising, ultimately building a consulting business that helps investors identify and enter non-food franchise opportunities nationwide.
• Franchising is a tax-advantaged alternative investment that can complement traditional assets like stocks and real estate within a diversified portfolio.
• Jon argued that boring, essential service businesses often outperform because they are less vulnerable to consumer fads, Amazon disruption, or near-term AI displacement.
• The concept of semi-passive or executive-model franchising was explained, where owners hire managers to run day-to-day operations while remaining hands-off with proper oversight.
• Success in semi-passive ownership was tied to having both a strong operator in place and a capable franchisor providing ongoing support and systems.
• Area developer and master franchise models were discussed as less common today, with most growth occurring through multi-unit franchise ownership.
• Jon identified people skills, sales experience, and humility to follow the system as the most consistent traits among top-performing franchisees.
• Franchise peer networks are a built-in mastermind that accelerates learning, best practices, and operational improvements across markets.
• Franchising is not passive income, but it can be made semi-absentee with the right structure and expectations.
• Franchising is a practical, scalable path to entrepreneurship for professionals seeking cash flow, control, and long-term wealth outside traditional investments.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-franchising-profits-jon-ostenson-782

Today we have your 2026 predictions. We also cover the volatile 2025 year-end and share the extreme moves in precious metals and global geopolitical shocks as a case study for how investors should think: not politically or emotionally, but by watching price action and sector reactions. Low holiday liquidity amplified market swings, but that real signals came from how energy, materials, small caps, and international markets responded. We also think that despite macro unease, debt overhangs, and geopolitical reshuffling, the data still point to a broadly bullish environment, with diversification, attention to relative performance, and humility toward market signals being far more important than predictions.

We discuss...

• Precious metals led early-year performance, with platinum, silver, and gold behaving very differently despite being in the same sector.
• Investors should respond to global events by asking how markets interpret them, not by reacting to political narratives.
• The U.S. seizure of Venezuela's president is a geopolitical shock with significant implications for energy markets and global power dynamics.
• Oil service and infrastructure companies briefly surged as markets discounted future Venezuelan production, though sustainability remains uncertain.
• China is a key indirect loser due to rising effective energy costs and margin pressure in its low-margin industrial economy.
• Geopolitical moves are increasingly overt, signaling a reshuffling of the global financial and political order.
• Have caution because investor intuition is often wrong, and there are historical examples where markets moved opposite of popular expectations.
• Price action was repeatedly emphasized as the best indicator of what informed capital is actually doing.
• Early 2026 performance showed leadership from small caps, microcaps, and value stocks rather than mega-cap technology.
• Materials, industrials, and energy outperformed in the first week, while tech, utilities, and communications lagged.
• The "Magnificent 7" were noted as early underperformers, challenging the assumption that they always lead markets.
• Defense stocks strengthened following signals of increased U.S. military spending.
• Healthcare and other previously beaten-down sectors were flagged as areas worth watching.
• Be caution against passive overreliance on the S&P 500 due to concentration risk and historical periods of long underperformance.
• While risks are elevated, market signals remain broadly bullish and investors should stay adaptive rather than predictive.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/https://moneytreepodcast.com/2026-predictions-781