Moody Podcast Network

Risk is unavoidable in investing—and in life. But not all risks deserve equal attention.

It is easy to focus primarily on the probability that something will happen. If an investment, career move, or financial strategy has a high likelihood of succeeding, we may assume it is a good decision. But Mark Biller, Executive Editor at Sound Mind Investing, suggests another question may be even more important: If things go wrong, how wrong could they go?

That shift—from focusing on probabilities to considering consequences—can help us make wiser financial decisions and protect ourselves from risks that could permanently derail our plans.

Suppose someone told you there was a 99% chance an opportunity would succeed. Those odds sound compelling.

But what if the remaining 1% chance of failure meant complete financial ruin? Suddenly, the decision looks very different.

A simple illustration is crossing a busy street. The probability of being hit by a vehicle may be relatively small, but we still look both ways because the potential consequence is catastrophic. A low probability does not make a severe consequence irrelevant.

The same principle applies to investing. An outcome may be statistically unlikely, but if it could wipe out your savings, destroy your retirement plan, or leave you unable to meet your obligations, it deserves serious consideration.

Financial thinker Peter Bernstein summarized the principle well: the consequences of being wrong can matter more than the probabilities of being right. That leads to two important questions:

Financial history offers plenty of reminders that even highly intelligent investors cannot anticipate every outcome.

One famous example is the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. The hedge fund was run by some of the brightest minds in finance and relied on sophisticated mathematical models. Those models worked under most circumstances—but a combination of leverage and extraordinary market conditions caused enormous losses.

The lesson is not that investors should avoid risk altogether. Risk is part of investing.

Rather, wise investors recognize the limits of their knowledge. We cannot predict every market decline, economic shock, or unexpected life event. That reality should lead us toward humility and encourage us to build financial plans with room for error.

One practical way to prepare for uncertainty is to maintain a margin of safety.

That begins before investing. A strong financial foundation includes reducing burdensome debt and establishing adequate emergency savings. Then, as you invest, diversification can help reduce the danger of concentrated bets, while avoiding excessive leverage can protect against losses that permanently impair your financial position.

The goal is not to eliminate every possible risk. That would be impossible.

Instead, margin allows your plan to survive when circumstances do not unfold as expected. Biblical wisdom encourages this kind of prudence. Proverbs 22:3 says:

“The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.”

Wise stewardship does not require us to live fearfully. But it does call us to recognize potential danger and prepare appropriately.

An emergency fund may seem separate from an

According to the apostle Paul, your giving actually has a smell to it.  Today on BOLD STEPS, Mark Jobe rounds out this teaching on generosity, explaining how giving becomes an offering that pleases God ... and how He promises to meet every need in return.  This is an encouraging word you don’t want to miss ... listen to Bold Steps with Pastor Mark Jobe.

Bold Steps Gift: Lee Strobel-The Case For Faith

Visit or watch Mark Jobe at New Life Community Church

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We hear stories all the time about the supernatural--miraculous healings, unexplained sightings, near-death experiences--but how do we know what is real? Are rumors of spiritual beings, healings, and prophetic dreams dangerous deceptions, or is there something important for us to explore? Join us as investigative journalist and former atheist Lee Strobel  examines the evidence and considers how we should think about the unseen world--and the God who made and rules over it.

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Long-term care isn’t just a health issue—it can become a major financial and family decision. Most of us hope we’ll never need extended care, but wise stewardship means planning for possibilities. On the next Faith & Finance Live, Rob West and Nathan Sanow explain long-term care, what insurance can and can’t do, and how to build a plan that protects both your finances and your family. Then, it’s on to calls. That’s Faith and Finance Live . . . biblical wisdom for your financial decisions. That’s weekdays at 4pm Eastern/3pm Central on Moody Radio.

Faith & Finance Live is a listener supported program on Moody Radio. To join our team of supporters, click here.

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What difference did a marriage conference make in your life? We want to hear your response to that question as we welcome back author, counselor and radio host, Captain Love Language, Dr. Gary Chapman. He has seen light bulbs go on in the lives of couples for decades. Encourage others with your story about your marriage conference experience on Chris Fabry Live.

Featured resource:
Upcoming family and marriage conferences

August thank you gift:
Resolve Conflict and Find Peace and Hope with Adult Children by Kathy Koch

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Whether you are married or single, your sexuality is inseparable from your spirituality. And many churches are silent on the subject. Dr. Juli Slattery will help us think biblically about all areas of our sexuality. Find freedom to explore God's good gifts of love, sex, and intimacy when you join us for Equipped with Chris Brooks.

Featured resource:
25 Questions You're Afraid to Ask about Love, Sex, and Intimacy by Dr. Juli Slattery

August thank you gift:
A Compelling Faith in a Compromising Culture by Mike Tatlock

Equipped with Chris Brooks is made possible through your support. To donate now, click here.

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Today, on Karl and Crew, we continued our weekly theme, “The Unstoppable Gospel.” Joel Davis, a missionary aviator, flight instructor, Moody Aviation faculty member, and YouTube channel, shared how missionary pilots are trained to combine technical skill with a heart for the gospel and how aviation opens doors to reach remote communities. Derrick Warfel, the author of UFOs and God, explored UFO sightings through a biblical lens, connecting unexplained phenomena to spiritual warfare and pointing believers back to the truth and authority of Christ. We then turn to our listeners and pose the question, “Why was the Gospel powerless in your life, and what changed that?” You can hear the highlights of today’s program on the Karl and Crew Showcast.

If you're looking to hear a particular segment from the show, look at the following timestamps:
Gospel Message [ 00:49 ]
Call segment [ 16:45 ]
Joel Davis [ 24:43 ]
Derrick Warfel [ 36:09 ]
Ally Think It’s Funny [ 46:07 ]

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Long-term care isn’t just a health issue. It can become a major financial and family decision.

Most of us hope we’ll never need extended care, but wise stewardship means preparing for possibilities before they become a crisis. And while long-term care insurance may be part of that preparation, the first step isn’t necessarily buying a policy. It’s having a plan.

Nathan Sanow, President of LTC Consumer and MasterCare LLC, has spent more than two decades helping individuals and families navigate long-term care planning. He says the most important place to begin is understanding what would happen if you or someone you love needed care for an extended period.

People often hear “long-term care” and immediately think about insurance premiums. But insurance is simply one potential way to fund a larger plan.

A good long-term care plan begins by asking several practical questions:

These conversations can be difficult, but they are much easier to have before a crisis occurs. Planning ahead also gives family members an opportunity to understand your wishes rather than making major decisions under pressure.

One of the most common misconceptions about long-term care is that Medicare or regular health insurance will cover the cost. In most cases, they will not.

Medicare may pay for certain short-term rehabilitation services after a qualifying hospital stay. For example, someone recovering from a stroke or surgery may receive temporary rehabilitative care.

But Medicare generally does not pay for ongoing custodial care—the type of help someone may need with everyday activities over an extended period. Traditional health insurance generally does not cover that kind of care either.

Medicaid can pay for long-term care, but eligibility requires meeting strict financial requirements. That often means spending down assets significantly before qualifying for assistance.

Another common source of confusion is long-term disability insurance. Long-term disability insurance replaces a portion of your income when you are unable to work. Long-term care coverage, by contrast, helps pay for the care you need when you can no longer adequately care for yourself.

Long-term care insurance is essentially a risk-transfer tool.

Instead of assuming the full financial risk of an unpredictable long-term care event, you pay a predictable premium and transfer some of that risk to an insurance company.

Many policies allow considerable flexibility in how benefits are used. Depending on the policy, coverage may help pay for professional care at home, assisted living, or a long-term care facility.

That flexibility matters because many people would prefer to remain at home as long as possible.

Some policies also provide caregiver support services. When a long-term care event occurs, families are suddenly forced to navigate providers, facilities, benefits, and major financial decisions. Having professional guidance available during that process can be valuable in itself.

The cost of coverage varies significantly depending on the type of policy, age, health, benefits selected, and length of coverage.

Sanow says consumers can think of long-term care insurance much like buying a vehicle: there are inexpensive options, premium opt

Paul calls it a spiritual account, and giving is how you make a deposit. Today on BOLD STEPS, Mark Jobe dives into Philippians 4 with a message titled Increasing Your Credit, showing how generosity pays dividends no bank statement could ever show.  Find out how your giving can pay off in ways you never expected ... listen to Bold Steps with Pastor Mark Jobe.

Bold Steps Gift: Lee Strobel-The Case For Faith

Visit or watch Mark Jobe at New Life Community Church

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For decades, society has grown increasingly untethered from what is real. Now biology is negotiable, feelings outrank facts, and confusion is shaping how the next generation understands God, human nature, morality, and destiny. Dr. Frank Turek will join us to expose the destructive ideas pulling Western civilization off course. Drawing from Scripture, logic, philosophy, science, and history, he will equip us to speak with conviction in a culture that desperately needs truth.

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