Corporate and sovereign default rates are decreasing as GDP growth, slowing inflation and monetary easing aid debt management. But EMs face a number of credit risks including potential US tariffs.

Guest: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Colin Ellis, Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody’s Ratings

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In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Markets Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change.

Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Institutional reforms, policy reversals, debt restructurings and the prospect of new hydrocarbon production are leading to gradual improvement in some sovereigns’ creditworthiness from weak levels.

Guest: John Walsh, Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

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Risk exposure is highest for those directly involved in the region’s three main hotspots. But the knock-on economic effects of the tensions have the potential to hurt, or help, other APAC governments.

Guest: Anushka Shah, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

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• Sovereigns – Asia-Pacific: Geopolitical risk shapes creditworthiness for a host of governments

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth.

Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-Analyst

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

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Challenges include the region’s reliance on fossil fuels to meet energy demand amid population growth, the companies’ weak financials and governments’ reliance on revenue from oil and gas producers.

Guests: Roxana Munoz and Carolina Chimenti, both Vice President - Senior Analysts, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

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• Oil & Gas – Latin America & Caribbean: National oil companies struggle to reconcile governments' emission-reduction goals

Rate hikes in Turkiye have slowed inflation, and confidence in the country’s currency is increasing. The sovereign’s creditworthiness is improving as a result, along with that of Turkish companies.

Guests: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings; Iker Ballestero Barrutia, Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings

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• Moody's Ratings upgrades Turkiye's ratings to B1, maintains positive outlook
• Government of Turkiye: Announced policy shift is credit positive but implementation comes with challenges

The opposition to proposed tax hikes impedes the government’s ability to increase revenue and reduce debt. Similar risks exist for other emerging market sovereigns too.

Guest: David Rogovic, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Scott Phillips, Head of Emerging Markets, Credit Strategy and Research, Moody’s Ratings

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• Sovereigns – Sub-Saharan Africa: 2024 Outlook - Negative on large debt maturities amid tight funding conditions

We have revised our aggregate EM forecast up slightly to 3.9% for 2024-25 to reflect faster-than-expected growth in some of the largest EMs so far this year. Disinflation continues but is slowing.

Speaker: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings

Host: Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Emerging Markets at Moody’s Ratings

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The creation of a coalition government following 29 May elections will likely support broad policy continuity and reforms, but the risk of government instability and ineffectiveness is significant.

Guest: Aurelien Mali, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Host: Scott Phillips, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody's Ratings

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• Government of South Africa: National unity government will likely support broad policy continuity and the pursuit of economic reforms