Moody’s Talks - Outlook Connections

Elena Nadtotchi and Matthias Heck of the Corporates team and Nana Hamilton of the Infrastructure team explore the outlook for global oil and gas producers, global auto makers, US regulated power utilities, and European unregulated utilities. The oil and gas and auto industries’ capital spending will come under pressure following a coronavirus-induced drop in revenues during 2020, although companies continue to invest in carbon transition. Utilities’ capital spending will remain robust because the pandemic has had less impact on them.

Analysts Mickey Chadha and Kevin Fagan discuss the outlook for US retail and the credit conditions for the US commercial mortgage-backed securities market in 2021. They outline how the coronavirus pandemic is rapidly accelerating digitization, which is increasingly dividing retailers into digital-haves and have-nots, reshaping mall design and determining which retail tenants are attractive to the market.

Christina Padgett and Sandra Veseli of the Corporates team, Al Remeza of the Structured Finance team, and Ana Arsov of the Financial Institutions team discuss the outlook for leveraged finance and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) in the US and EMEA. Coronavirus-related defaults will likely peak in 2021, but banks’ exposure is limited. Lower-rated loans to coronavirus-exposed sectors will be worst affected, with a knock-on effect on the junior tranches of existing CLOs.

Atsi Sheth from the Credit Strategy team and Yves Lemay from the Sovereign Risk Group discuss the outlook for the global economy and sovereign credit in 2021 in light of the seismic financial shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic. They also outline the differing outlooks and credit risks faced by three key economies: the US, China and the UK.

Anne Van Praagh and Michael Taylor of the Credit Strategy & Research team discuss six key trends that will affect the credit landscape as the world deals with the coronavirus crisis. These include an uneven economic recovery, higher corporate and sovereign debt loads, and the accelerated digital transformation of major business sectors.

On Moody’s Talks - Outlook Connections, analysts from around the globe will outline our views on the business conditions for credit markets in the year ahead. We’ll aim to analyze the interplay and correlations between major sectors and asset classes as well as the potential impacts of both short and long term economic trends. From oil, automotive and energy to retail and CMBS, and from airlines and the hospitality sectors to panoramic perspectives on the US and China, join us on a journey into the future of fixed income markets. Published by Moody's Investors Service.