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China’s COVID-19 policy ‘pivot’ has the potential to be a major driver of asset prices in 2023. We see a possible end to all COVID restrictions in 1H23 as economic challenges and ongoing social unease will likely accelerate change.

While the reopening will be disruptive given the speed at which the central government has eased restrictions, we expect consumption to rebound sharply and boost GDP by Q2 2023.

Importantly, as China pursued a very different policy response to COVID-19 from most of the West, it is not experiencing high inflation or rising interest rates. This gives Beijing a significant runway for stimulus.

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US equity markets settled in the red for a fourth consecutive session, extending a drop last week sparked by a new round of interest rate rises and hawkish comments from central bankers - Dow fell -163-points or -0.49%, with Walt Disney Co (down -4.79%) and Nike Inc (-2.79%) among the biggest drags. A $1 move in any of the Dow's 30 components results in a 6.59-point swing. The broader S&P500 shed -0.90%, with Communication Services (down -2.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.66%) both declining over >1.5% to lead ten of the eleven primary sectors lower. Energy was the only primary sector to advance overnight, edging +0.13% higher. Tesla Inc fell -0.24% to US$149.87, settling below

Investment Watch Summer 2023 Outlook: https://www.morgans.com.au/research-and-markets/economics-and-strategy/Investment-Watch-Summer-2023-Outlook

We remind investors to remain vigilant against a series of macro-economic risks that are likely to make for a bumpy ride and as always, some asset classes will outperform others. That is why this extended version of Investment Watch includes our key themes and picks for 2023 and our best ideas. As always, speak to your adviser about asset classes and stocks that suit your investment goals.

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The S&P500 and Nasdaq extended losses into a third consecutive session on Friday (16 December) amid a volatile ‘Quadruple Witching’ session that saw the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single-stock futures worth ~US$4 trillion (including US$2.4 trillion tied to S&P 500 index futures) - Dow fell -282-points or -0.85%, paring an earlier session decline of ~548-points. Goldman Sachs Group Inc lost -0.99% following reports that the US investment bank is preparing to lay off as many as 3,900 employees starting in January as chief executive David Solomon seeks to boost profitability amid economic headwinds. The plans are still being drawn up, and it is possible that the current target for a cull of “up to 8 per cent” of its 49,000 global workforce will be slimmed down if the business outlook improves, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The broader S&P500 lost -1.11%, with Real Estate (down -2.96%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.74%) and Utilities (-1.66%) all down over >1.5% and leading all eleven primary sectors lower. Tesla Inc dropped -4.72% to cap the worst weekly performance (down -16.1%) for the electric vehicle maker’s shares since 2020 and fourth-worst week in history for the shares after a series of three weeks in late February and early March 2020, when investors sold stocks in fear of the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects. Tesla ended the week with a market capitalisation of less than US$3.5B in Tesla stock late last Wednesday (14 December), after performing the trades over the three previous trading sessions, when the price declined a cumulative 12.4%. In total, the Tesla CEO has sold US$39.3B worth of Tesla stock in the past 13 months. The Nasdaq shed-0.97%. However, Meta Platforms Inc rose +2.82%, buoyed by an upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’ by JPMorgan. The small capitalisation Russell 2000 lost -0.63%.

US equity markets tumbled as investors digested a wave of interest rate rises and hawkish commentary from global central banks - Dow fell -764-points or -2.25%, The broader S&P500 dropped -2.49%, with Communication Services (down -3.84%), Information Technology (-3.78%) and Materials (-3.02%) all down over >3% and leading all eleven primary sectors lower. Shoe Carnival Inc over >3.2% in after-hours trading after the shoe retailer said its board of directors approved a new US$50M share buyback program. The Nasdaq slumped -3.23%. Netflix Inc dropped -8.63% following a report in Digiday citing five agency executives that the streaming giant is falling short of ad-supported viewership guarantees made to advertisers and allowing advertisers to take their money back for ads that have yet to run. The small capitalisation Russell 2000 lost -2.52%.

US equity markets settled lower as investors digested the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy pronouncements - Dow fell -142-points or -0.42%, The broader S&P500 lost -0.61%, with Financials (down -1.29%), Materials (-1.11%) and Real Estate (-1.01%) all declining over >1% to lead ten of the eleven primary sector lower. Health Care (up +0.14%) was the only primary sector to advance. The S&P 500 is on track for its biggest three-month gain since the second quarter of 2020, having risen by ~11.3% since the start of October. Delta Air Lines Inc rose +2.79% after the carrier raised its earnings guidance and highlighted robust demand for air travel as the industry recovers from the widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The airline raised its 2022 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to US$3.07 to US$3.12 versus current consensus forecasts for US$2.88. For 2023, Delta forecast a near doubling of adjusted earnings to US$5 to US$6 per share, and revenue growth at 15% to 20% compared with 2022 and said it is on track to meet its 2024 earnings target of more than >US$7 a share. However, Tesla Inc (down -2.58%) continued to trade around two year lows. Chief executive Elon Musk tweeted that he “will make sure Tesla shareholders benefit from Twitter long-term”. The technology-centric Nasdaq fell -0.76%. The small capitalisation Russell 2000 lost -0.65%.

A US housing slump in the first half of 2023 should be followed in the second half by an oil and gas boom.

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US equity markets tallied a second consecutive session of gains albeit settled well off their session highs as investors digested the latest monthly inflation report and eyed key central bank meetings later in the week - Dow added +104-points or +0.30%, paring an earlier rally of over >700-points. Chevron Corp (up +2.23%) was the leading Dow performer. Boeing Co added +0.46% after United Airlines Holdings Inc (down -6.94%) announced it had agreed to buy 100 787 Dreamliner planes, with the option to purchase 100 more, and also committing to buying 100 737 Max jets. Boeing said the order was the largest 787 Dreamliner order in the company’s history. The broader S&P500 rose +0.73%, having climbed as much as +2.77% earlier in the session. Real Estate (up +2.04%) lead ten of the eleven primary sectors higher, with Consumer Staples (down -0.17%) the only primary sector to settle in the red. Tesla Inc (down -4.09%) continued to slide, logging its sixth session decline in the past seven The Nasdaq gained +1.01%, settling well off session highs that the saw the technology-centric index up as much as +3.84% earlier in the session. The small capitalisation Russell 2000 advanced +0.97%.

US equity markets rallied, clawing back some of last week’s steep losses as investors eye key inflation figures tonight AEST and a brace of key central bank meetings later in the week - Dow gained +529-points or +1.58%. Boeing Co rose +3.75% amid reports that Air India is close to signing an order with the planemaker to acquire up to 150 737 Max jets. The broader S&P500 rose +1.43%, with Energy (up +2.49%), Utilities (+2.27%) and Information Technology (+2.17%) all advancing over >2% to lead all eleven primary sectors higher. Tesla Inc (down -6.27% at US$167.82) settled at its lowest level since 20 November, 2020 and a fresh 52-week low. Investors remain concerned about Tesla’s production, particularly in China, even though the company has denied earlier reports that suggested production cuts in the world’s biggest auto market. The Nasdaq climbed +1.26%. The small capitalisation Russell 2000 gained +1.22%.