The S&P rose last week, along with the Dow and the Nasdaq. The sixth of the past seven weeks where markets rose. Reversing course, both gold and oil dropped on the week. Interesting note: the average daily return since March 23 is 0.43%.

Biden continues to lead Trump in most national polls. As part of the Fox poll, only 28% of respondents rated the economy as excellent or good. Take them for what you will, but the Biden lead has held strong thus through the summer. What happens on Nov. 3 is what will really matter.

Today’s Key Questions

- What’s the segmentation of unemployment claims?

- Are consumers buying anything? What do retail sales numbers show?

- Is COVID-19 set to make another surge?

Today’s Bible Verse – Romans 8:37

Yet in all these things we are more than conquerors through Him who loved us.

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This market continues to chug along. Stock markets jumped higher across the board on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (up 1.4%), the Dow Jones (up 1.05%), the Nasdaq (up 2.13%) and oil (up 2.5%) all up on the day. Believe it or not, the S&P 500 briefly returned to record-high levels during intraday trading before settling just below.

Meanwhile, the U.S. saw its highest death toll from COVID-19 since mid-May yesterday. The 7-day rolling average has been above 1,000 deaths per day for 17 straight days. Across the pond, the UK continues to fight COVID-19 as well. UK GDP fell 20% for the second quarter and officials are warning of major job losses in the fall as government stimulus support expires.

Today’s Key Questions

- With COVID-19 creating a new normal – what habits and activities will never return?

- Is inflation a risk? What about deflation?

Today’s Bible Verse – Jeremiah 29:11

For I know the plans I have for you, declares the LORD, plans for welfare[a] and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope.

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Stock markets went for a wild ride on Tuesday, most major indices finishing the day slightly lower. Gold reversed recent course and was down 4.6% on the day. No major headlines driving the market movements. Speaking of headlines, Joe Biden announced his pick for his vice-presidential running mate. And joining the ticket is…Senator Kamala Harris from California.

Today’s Key Questions

- Will Kamala Harris help Joe Biden’s bid for the White House?

- How can a pullback in markets be a good thing?

Today’s Bible Verse – Genesis 8:15-16

Then God spoke to Noah, saying, Go out of the ark, you and your wife, and your sons and your sons’ wives with you.

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Most asset classes and sectors continued their slow crawl upward yesterday with the greatest increases coming from oil (up 1.7%) and value stocks (up 1.4%). Do you think rough waters lie ahead for the global economy? If so, you’re not alone – a recent survey from PcW showed that 75% of the 3,500 global clients surveyed are expecting a further downshift economically.

America’s fiscal year ended on June 30 and the CBO released are first glimpse of COVID-19 on the country’s financial performance. The good news is that federal government revenues are only down 1%. The bad news? Spending was up more than 50%.

Today’s Key Questions

- Do the jobs/unemployment figures released from various sources paint a true picture of America’s workforce?

- How does a decline in earnings impact a company’s P/E ratio?

- Is the next move in the S&P 500 10% higher or lower?

Today’s Bible Verse – Hebrews 11:7

By faith Noah, being divinely warned of things not yet seen, moved with godly fear, prepared an ark for the saving of his household, by which he condemned the world and became heir of the righteousness which is according to faith.

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It was another strong week for markets to kick off the month of August. For the week, the S&P 500 was up 2.45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 3.8% and the Nasdaq rose 2.75%. On the commodities front, both gold (up 2.1%) and oil (up 2.4%) continued to rise.

With Congress unsuccessfully reaching agreement on terms for additional stimulus, President Trump stepped. Through several executive orders, the President sought to create four key assistance programs and provide additional stimulus for Americans amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Today’s Key Questions

- Does President Trump have the authority to push stimulus forward without Congress?

- Is the employment picture improving, weakening or treading water?

Today’s Bible Verse – Proverbs 29:18

Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he.

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After Wednesday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 3% in 2020 and just over 6% since the July 4th holiday weekend – what a run it has been. Both the Nasdaq and the Dow rose on Wednesday as well. As mentioned Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday… stimulus negotiations continued yesterday but still no deal. July employment data from ADP showed U.S. private payrolls rose by only 167,000 in July, much lower than the 1.2 million estimate.

Gold prices have rallied 22% over two months. The raise has largely been driven by low interest rates, fear of inflation and weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Today’s Key Questions

- How much have stocks risen since the March 2020 low?

- Are broad equity correlations breaking down?

- Can the flight to gold last?

Today’s Bible Verse – Jeremiah 32: 2-3 (NKJV)

Thus says the LORD who made it, the LORD who formed it to establish it (the LORD is His name): “Call to Me, and I will answer you, and show you great and mighty things, which you do not know.”

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Gold and equity markets continued to rise on Tuesday. The S&P 500 is up almost 3% over last week and a half. Stimulus negotiations continued Tuesday but still no deal. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury announced that the U.S. government will borrow another $2 trillion during the second half of 2020. These additional dollars increase full year 2020 estimates to $5.7 trillion.

Credit card data (JPM) shows a 10% reduction in spending by consumers in July 2020 from a year ago. One area hit the hardest has been retail with 43 major retailers declaring bankruptcy in 2020 and we’re not even through the summer yet.

On the vaccine front, we currently have 11 potential vaccines in the running. About half are slated to moved into second phase of development while three are on track for approval during the fourth quarter of 2020.

Today’s Key Questions

- How many “big box” retail chains will shutter in 2020?

- What are some of the unintended consequences of all this Fed stimulus?

- How have the job losses impacted healthcare coverage?

Bible Verse – Galatians 6:9

And let us not grow weary while doing good, for in due season we shall reap if we do not lose heart.

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An overall quiet session on Monday with the majority of stocks slightly higher. So far, 64% of S&P 500 companies have reported second quarter earnings and 8 of 10 have beaten (very low) expectations. Gold continues its rise – up 11 of 12 days since July 16. Current price per ounce of gold is just shy of $2,000. ADT and Google announced a new $450 million partnership on Monday sending the security service company’s stock up over 50% on the day.

Lots of meetings on Capitol Hill regarding additional stimulus, but no deal has been reached. The two biggest issues remain the $600 additional unemployment funds and differences in party opinion in how much money should be allotted to state and local governments.

Interesting piece of research from Strategas shows that year-to-date inflows to fixed income (bond) ETFs has outpaced those of equity funds by five times. Even precious metal funds have seen stronger inflows in 2020 than equity funds.

Today’s Key Questions

- Is the spread of COVID-19 slowing?

- What government profit controls will be placed on pharma companies developing COVID-19 drugs?

- How will the upcoming election impact markets today and post-November?

Today’s Bible Verse – Daniel 2:20-21

Daniel answered and said:

“Blessed be the name of God forever and ever,

For wisdom and might are His.

And He changes the times and the seasons;

He removes kings and raises up kings;

He gives wisdom to the wise

And knowledge to those who have understanding.

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Big Tech reported earnings late in the week, pushing Apple stock up 10% just on Friday. Facebook, meanwhile, was up 8%. Digital companies have faired fairly amid the pandemic. Other areas of the global economy, based off second quarter data released last week, have not fared so well. U.S. GDP fell 9.5% quarter-over-quarter and 32.9% on an annualized basis. In the EU, GDP fell 40.3% on an annualized basis.

Stimulus talks continue in Washington with no clear deal in sight. Special benefits for the unemployed expired last week, and so far have not been extended. Accordingly, Congressional approval has fallen to just 18%, down from 31% in May.

For the month of July, the S&P rose 5.64%. Of the 22 trading days during the month, 14 were positive.

Today’s Key Questions

- Is Microsoft buying TikTok?

- Who will Joe Biden pick as his Vice-Presidential running mate?

- Did a 17-year-old really hack Obama and Buffett’s Twitter accounts?

Today’s Bible Verse – Psalm 61:2-4

from the end of the earth I call to you

when my heart is faint.

Lead me to the rock

that is higher than I,

for you have been my refuge,

a strong tower against the enemy.

Let me dwell in your tent forever!

Let me take refuge under the shelter of your wings! Selah

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Stocks up on Tuesday, led by the energy sector. Overall, the S&P 500 is up just over 5% year-to-date. Although consumer confidence remains muted, strength in the housing market continues to provide support.

With roughly 86% of global fixed income yields below 2%, the Federal Reserve made no change to interest rates on Wednesday, stating that the “current state of growth not up to par.” They also added a sentence stating, “The path of economy depends significantly on course of the virus.”

GDP reports for the second quarter are out. Germany’s GDP dropped 10.1% for the quarter – twice the decline experienced in 2008 – and the U.S. saw a 32.9% decline – triple the amplitude of the previous worst quarter on record.

Today’s Key Questions

- With stimulus support expiring tomorrow, will we see progress on a new stimulus bill?

- How many public companies aren’t currently making a profit?

- What will earnings for Apple, Amazon, Google (Alphabet) and Facebook look like this afternoon?

Today’s Bible Verse – Philippians 4:6-7

Do not be anxious about anything, but in everything by prayer and supplication with thanksgiving let your requests be made known to God.

And the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and your minds in Christ Jesus.

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