Brian Balfour, Founder & CEO of Reforge and former VP of Growth at HubSpot, joins Mostly Growth to explore why product-market fit is a moving target. He introduces the concept of the Product-Market Fit Treadmill, a state where rising customer expectations and competitive pressure make it harder than ever to stay ahead. Brian breaks down how AI has accelerated PMF collapse, explains the hidden costs of product adoption, and shares how Reforge shipped five AI-native products with a team of just 20 people. Packed with frameworks, strategic insight, and startup realism, this episode is essential listening for product leaders, operators, and founders navigating the next wave of GTM.

—

LINKS: 

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

Brian Balfour: brianbalfour.com

Brian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bbalfour/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/

https://brianbalfour.com/four-fits-growth-framework

https://x.com/amasad/status/1981201454032703662?s=46

https://getlatka.com/companies/firefliesai

https://x.com/rowancheung/status/1988218743952916537?

https://gamma.app/insights/how-we-built-a-usd100m-business-differently

—

RELATED EPISODES:

When the marketing math doesn’t math | with Emily Kramer

https://youtu.be/sSuoV_YSrlw

Why Founders Are Posting Sad Dinners

https://youtu.be/Zl6NSIHF2Gk

—

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:01:15 Sponsors – Pulley, Metronome

00:03:36 Guest Introduction – Brian Balfour

00:06:24 Writing, Frameworks, and Career Foundations

00:09:56 PMF Misconceptions and the Treadmill

00:13:25 AI Acceleration and PMF Threshold Shifts

00:16:07 CRM Expectations and Changing Market Dynamics

00:18:53 AI-Native CRM Approaches and Workflow Changes

00:21:08 R&D Investment and Customer Expectations

00:23:37 Roadmaps, Feature Velocity, and Customer Education

00:26:02 AI Adoption Across Product Discovery, Delivery, and Adoption

00:27:17 Product Adoption Constraints and Human Bottlenecks

00:29:06 Platform Cycles and Distribution Shifts

00:31:05 Framework for Evaluating Platform Bets

00:33:20 Open–Close Platform Dynamics in AI

00:36:34 Emerging Platforms and Early Ecosystem Bets

00:39:10 AI Discovery Channels and Traffic Distribution

00:40:03 Distribution Shifts and OpenAI’s Multi-Channel Bets

00:41:15 Hiring, Resumes, and AI-Generated Applications

00:43:20 Note-Taking Apps, Market Size, and “Flintstoning”

00:46:06 Vertical AI Note-Taking and System-of-Record Paths

00:48:27 Gamma, Canva, and AI Presentation Tools

00:50:15 Onboarding Innovation with AI Agents

00:51:57 Closing Remarks and Outro

—

SPONSORS:

Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

—

#MostlyGrowthPodcast #ProductMarketFit #BrianBalfour #StartupStrategy #Reforge

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ and Kyle break down the brutal math behind OpenAI’s path to a $500B revenue future—unpacking how much would realistically need to come from consumer subscriptions, B2B APIs, advertising, and commerce. Using comparisons to Netflix, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Snapchat, they map out the limits of each revenue stream and debate whether OpenAI can ever become both the world’s largest subscription business and a top-tier ad platform. Along the way, they detour into business blunders (including Kyle getting locked out of LinkedIn for being “too efficient”).

—

LINKS: 

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/klook-ipo-s1-breakdown

https://openai.com/index/openai-amd-strategic-partnership/

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/companies-pouring-billions-advance-ai-infrastructure-2025-10-06/

https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenue-rises-16-about-43-billion-information-reports-2025-09-30/

https://www.notoriousplg.ai/p/notorious-openais-revenue-breakdown

https://evoca.tv/netflix-user-statistics/

https://www.yaguara.co/amazon-prime-statistics/

https://www.cnbc.com/select/amazon-prime-is-it-worth-it/

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SNAP/snap/revenue

https://www.businessofapps.com/data/youtube-statistics/

https://saad-report.rippling.com/result/

https://x.com/artman/status/1988733285086687729?s=46

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/11/introducing-iphone-pocket-a-beautiful-way-to-wear-and-carry-iphone/

—

RELATED EPISODES:

Grindr’s $0 CAC Secret from the CFO Who Launched Disney+ | Vanna Krantz

https://youtu.be/ijFIMmtpLNw

The Product-Market Fit Treadmill | Brian Balfour Explains

https://youtu.be/I5UqGlBOdoA

—

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:01:25 Sponsors – Metronome, Pulley

00:03:53 Return from Sponsors and Show Kickoff

00:04:09 Klook IPO and the Global Tours Market

00:09:53 Real World MBA and Startup Lessons

00:10:27 OpenAI’s Path to $500 Billion

00:11:02 Revenue Makeup – ChatGPT, API, and Anthropic

00:12:15 Benchmarking Consumer Subscription Giants

00:13:23 Ads, Take Rate, and Diversification Strategy

00:19:27 Scaling to $200B in Subscriptions

00:20:06 Meta-Sized Ad Ambitions for OpenAI

00:21:35 Flash Forward – Can OpenAI Really Get There?

00:22:45 YouTube, Tokens, and Streaming Models

00:23:49 CJ’s Recruiting Venture – Mostly Talent

00:29:28 Building the Whole Finance Department

00:31:29 Experimental Pricing Model Proposal

00:33:01 Iterating on Warm Intro Structure

00:35:23 CJ’s Preferred Recruiting Model

00:36:15 Report from Rippling – Software as a Disservice

00:39:40 LinkedIn Lockout: Kyle’s Wake-Up Call

00:40:40 CJ’s Bookmarking Blunder & Twitter UI Rant

00:41:27 Social Media Game Push – NYT, LinkedIn, Facebook

00:42:27 Apple’s “iPhone Pocket” & Borat Comparison

00:43:00 Final Banter: Satchels & Sign-Off

—

SPONSORS:

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar dig into what it means to be useful rather than just right at work, exploring how communication, empathy, and impact matter more than technical precision as careers mature. They share candid lessons from their own paths—CJ’s focus on making others look good to earn promotions and Kyle’s evolution into a domain expert through public writing—before unpacking what separates good from great VPs of Sales with insights from Pavilion founder Sam Jacobs. The conversation then shifts to OpenAI’s “too big to fail” claims, the economic ripple effects of AI infrastructure spending, and how finance leaders can stay grounded in reality. Rounding out the episode, the hosts preview their latest research—CJ’s “Agentic Finance” report on AI in the finance stack and Kyle’s 2025 SaaS Benchmarks—and close with lighthearted banter about founder age stats, home maintenance mishaps, and the price of professional Christmas lights

—

LINKS: 

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/

https://sarahcharlton.substack.com/p/from-being-right-to-being-useful

https://www.highalpha.com/saas-benchmarks

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/presenting-the-state-of-the-agentic-financial-stack

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/finance-in-2030

https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-algorithm-will-see-you-now/

https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/openai-ceo-sam-altman-forecasts-20-billion-annualized-revenue-year

https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/your-pricing-is-broken

—

RELATED EPISODES:

Getting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilion

https://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0

How To Win at Early Stage Sales With the Guy Who Helped Take Snyk From $0 to $100M+

https://youtu.be/VKrZCte8fyM

996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaos

https://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRo

—

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:01:43 Sponsors – Pulley and Metronome

00:04:03 Flight Cancellation and Airport Chaos

00:07:23 Being Right vs. Being Useful at Work

00:09:33 Career Paths – Expert vs. Manager

00:10:42 Getting Promoted and Making Others Look Good

00:14:50 What Separates a Good VP of Sales from a Great One

00:17:22 The CFO Mindset Behind Great Sales Leaders

00:21:58 Is OpenAI Too Big To Fail?

00:24:32 AI Investments and Economic Growth

00:26:30 Accounting Games and Useful Life of AI Infrastructure

00:27:38 Agentic Finance and the AI-Driven Finance Stack

00:31:07 2025 SaaS Benchmarks Report Highlights

00:33:24 Realistic Growth Rates by ARR Tier

00:34:15 Efficiency Gains and Headcount Reduction

00:35:05 AI’s Impact on Engineering Teams

00:37:09 Age and Startup Success

00:39:54 The Power of Networks and Mature Relationships

00:40:50 Something You Tried This Week – HVAC Cleaning

00:46:13 Credits – Mostly Growth Closing Remarks

—

SPONSORS:

Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

—

#MostlyGrowthPodcast #StartupFinance #AIPodcast #SaaSLeadership #GoToMarket

Ever built a plan that looks airtight on paper—until you do the math? Emily Kramer (ex-Asana, Carta) joins the Mostly Growth crew to expose the hilariously painful reality of B2B marketing budgets, broken forecasts, and exec goals that straight-up don't add up. From her viral “Random Acts of Marketing” framework to headcount-vs-program spend debates, Emily breaks down why planning often feels like a farce. The episode also dives into the budgeting tug-of-war between CMOs and CFOs, why LinkedIn marketing is mostly a mess, and how to stop optimizing things that don’t matter. If you’ve ever been told to “hit a number” that makes zero sense, this one’s for you.

—

LINKS: 

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

MKT1 Newsletter: https://newsletter.mkt1.co/

Emily on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/emilykramer/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/

—

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:00:13 The CMO Budget Dilemma

00:00:33 B2B Brands Trying to Be Cool on LinkedIn

00:01:14 Show Intro – Mostly Growth with CJ and Kyle

00:01:38 Sponsors – Metronome and Pulley

00:03:58 Guest Introduction – Emily Kramer and the Steph Curry / Taylor Swift Analogy

00:06:14 Emily Kramer’s Frameworks: Random Acts of Marketing (RAM)

00:08:47 Fuel and Engine Framework – Balancing Creation and Distribution

00:12:34 CFO vs. Marketing – Goal Planning Tensions

00:13:19 Forecasting and Budgeting – Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up

00:16:44 When the Math Doesn’t Math – Efficiency and Conversion

00:18:30 Big Bets and Budget Planning

00:20:36 Headcount vs. Program Spend Trade-Offs

00:22:57 Biggest Mistakes in Annual Planning

00:24:30 Building a LinkedIn Flywheel and Influencer Strategy

00:26:45 Thought Leader Ads and Boosting Executive Posts

00:29:10 Cringe B2B Content and Random Acts of Marketing

00:32:02 LinkedIn’s Pay-to-Play Shift

00:35:49 Hot or Not: Marketing Channels

00:41:51 Emily’s Market One Supper Club and Community Building

00:44:59 Wrap-Up and Credits

—

SPONSORS:

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics

—

#MostlyGrowthPodcast #TheMathDoesntMath #StartupStruggles #B2BMarketing #BudgetBattle

In this high-energy episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the hidden levers of SaaS growth and what truly separates startups that scale to $20M+ ARR from those that stall out. They explore eye-opening data from 6,500 companies, revealing how the best improve net retention, raise pricing, and re-engineer their revenue models over time. Alongside the metrics, there’s plenty of playful chaos—like a naming debate over “Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gustafson,” a rapid-fire game of “Founder or Pop Star,” and CJ’s accidental IPO embargo break. It’s part insight, part inside joke, and 100% for SaaS operators and C-suite climbers.

—

LINKS: 

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/

https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/the-compounding-startup

https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/the-odds-of-making-it

https://www.superme.ai/kylepoyar?conversationId=VgDXTOl2Z89mW7UYXstU0b

https://a16z.com/anatomy-of-an-enterprise-platform-company/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hhi.asp

https://navan.com/

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/navan-ipo-s1-breakdown

https://x.com/amendandpretend/status/1983588137453416763?s=46

https://x.com/ryan_c_walsh/status/1983705182371475630?s=46

https://www.reddit.com/r/TwinCities/comments/z6hxp8/how_much_are_people_paying_for_residential_snow/

—

RELATED EPISODES:

Getting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilion

https://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0

Why Founders Are Posting Sad Dinners

https://youtu.be/Zl6NSIHF2Gk

—

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00:00 Preview and Intro

00:01:20 Sponsors Pulley and Metronome

00:03:24 Welcome Back Dodgers Banter

00:05:03 SaaS Founder or Pop Star Game

00:07:08 Growth Levers Report Overview

00:08:33 Building for Expansion and Retention

00:10:11 Figure It Out and ICP Discussion

00:11:47 Monthly Growth and Compounding

00:13:44 Pricing Lessons Fat Joe Quote

00:14:46 AI Avatars Introduction

00:15:35 CJ Tests the Kyle Chatbot

00:16:39 AI Costs Beta and Power Users

00:17:54 Using AI for Writing and Research

00:19:52 Cannibalizing Content and Platform Talk

00:21:28 A16z Platform Discussion

00:23:49 Herfindahl Hirschman Index Explained

00:24:33 HHI Applied to Market Entry

00:26:13 CrowdStrike Datadog Multi Product Models

00:29:17 Business Blunders and Navan IPO

00:33:08 Snow Removal Pricing in the Real World

—

SPONSORS:

Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com

Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics

—

#MostlyGrowthPodcast #SaaSGrowth #StartupStrategy #B2BTech #RevenueRetention

CJ, Kyle, and Ben sit down with product-growth leader Leah Tharin to unpack why “growth” is the connective tissue between marketing traffic and product revenue, how a new middle segment of visitors just wants product information (not onboarding), and why interactive demos and ICP-focused metrics beat vanity signups. They get into AI-era realities—LLMs ingesting messy web data, SEO-style gaming creeping into AI search, and why you must structure content for machines without drowning it in noise. Leah shares practical playbooks for segmenting dashboards by ICP, qualifying intent before trials, and building moats through workflow depth and integrations. They close with Business Blunders (cloud outages stranding smart beds), a “potentially reliable at 2 a.m.” wealth thought experiment, and Pricing in the Real World (when shrinking markets get more profitable and why LEGO’s premium strategy still

Timestamps:

00:00 Preview and Intro

01:00 Theme and Show Intro by Ben

01:23 Welcome and Guest Intro: Leah Tharin joins Mostly Growth

02:58 Halloween banter and European vs. US traditions

04:03 Europe’s AI/startup scene and data protection realities

07:34 Why founders move HQs to the US; SF gravity for AI startups

08:15 EU hubs, language barriers, and multilingual products

09:45 What’s working in growth right now? Setting definitions

10:07 “Growth is just marketing, right?” — Leah’s framework

12:54 Trials vs. info-seekers; fix onboarding for two intents

16:06 Prompt-box homepages and brand vs. explanation debt

19:46 AI search, poisoning, and content architecture limits

22:32 What to do now: simplify metrics and segment by ICP

23:12 Building ICP vs. non-ICP dashboards that guide teams

25:37 Use interactive demos; qualify intent before trials

34:32 Snake-eating-its-tail data and model bias in training sets

35:43 Founder advice: bet on problem-obsessed teams and workflows

38:41 Business Blunders: AWS outage and “smart bed” fail

39:46 Potentially Reliable at 2 a.m.: The “missing billionaires” thought experiment

44:06 Pricing in the Real World: shrinking markets, rising margins

45:10 LEGO pricing and premium positioning rant

49:24 Events on a boat: captive audiences and sponsorships

50:45 Credits and Sign-off

Links:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fezzafar_mercor-is-opening-an-office-in-nyc-by-the-activity-7349945988284895232-16My/

https://www.leahtharin.com/p/why-ai-cannot-simulate-your-customers

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/leahtharin_you-cant-make-this-up-its-like-building-activity-7388137959339995136-4ntR?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAABXudO4BrPOvYZxxohi5ofSeJBQlukFBEc4

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Missing_Billionaires

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/06/12/how-to-invest-your-enormous-inheritance

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/26/the-counterintuitive-economics-of-smoking

https://www.lego.com/en-us/product/death-star-75419

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvXD7aHLoiw

In this episode, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman break down the data behind Kyle’s new 2025 B2B Go-To-Market report, covering what’s actually working in sales and marketing right now — and what’s not. They discuss why most companies are spreading their marketing budgets too thin, how focusing deeply on a few proven channels drives better ROI, and why founder-led content on LinkedIn is outperforming everything else. The crew digs into the rise of AI search, the surprising durability of SEO, and the death of AI SDRs. CJ also explains his “analytics escalator” framework, showing how teams can evolve from basic dashboards to predictive and prescriptive analytics. The episode wraps with their favorite “business blunders” and a nostalgic dive into LimeWire’s bizarre Web3 comeback.

Get Kyle's GTM Report here: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Timestamps:00:00 Beyoncé and the Hot Sauce Reference01:42 Welcome to Mostly Growth02:10 Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew & Fall Banter03:02 The Problem with Startup Swag04:32 The Best Swag Ever: Runway’s “Burn Rate” Hot Sauce06:12 Beyoncé Callback & Yeti Self-Portrait Water Bottle08:32 Transition to GTM Discussion08:42 What’s Actually Working in GTM09:15 Too Many Channels, Not Enough Focus10:05 The Power Law of Marketing Spend11:44 F1, Downforce, and Channel Focus13:15 Double Down on Winning Channels14:11 The One-Trick Pony Fallacy15:07 Inbound Isn’t Dead — It’s Just Personal16:14 The LinkedIn Effect: People vs. Brands17:48 Why Founder-Led Content Wins19:09 The GTM Scorecard Framework20:00 What’s in the Top-Right Quadrant20:14 The Failure of AI SDRs21:03 The Rise of AI Search (AIO)22:02 AI Hype vs. Real Adoption22:43 Finance Teams Taking Over Analytics23:11 Who Should Own Analytics25:00 The Analytics Escalator: Four Levels Explained28:49 From Dashboards to Diagnosis31:08 Avoiding Useless Analysis33:07 Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics38:03 Why Analytics Needs More Than Software39:39 Should CFOs Really Own Analytics40:08 Business Blunders: The Dreaded Catch-Up Email41:25 How to Say No Gracefully43:00 The LimeWire Comeback44:20 LimeWire Buys Fyre Festival Rights45:00 Nostalgia, Scams, and Brand Value in 2025Links:https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7387167459633504257/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDZJPJV__bQhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primate_cityhttps://podcasts.musixmatch.com/podcast/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard-01gyvn3sxrv2dzjp7a94ea738y/episode/brad-pitt-01jydvce50ysyercfshbdgtanvhttps://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/cfos-are-taking-over-the-analytics-departmenthttps://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-say-nohttps://nftnow.com/news/lmwr-limewire-is-back-from-the-dead-as-a-web3-brandhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/us/limewire-crypto-fyre-festival.htmlhttps://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lifestyle/arts/fyre-festival-musical-taika-waititi-rita-ora-1236362629/https://getplanta.com/

In this episode, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the concept of “sloponomics”—a tongue-in-cheek look at the overwhelming flood of mediocre AI-generated content and what it means for creators, startups, and investors. They discuss how unique voices and genuine creativity will stand out in an AI-saturated landscape, the economic parallels between modern content creation and startup growth, and the tricky dynamics of building sustainable momentum in a world of noise. The trio also unpack the “$10K MRR” meme, pricing psychology, and the difference between chasing vanity metrics and building lasting value. With humor and real-world insight, they explore how AI, distribution, and early-stage investment are reshaping what success looks like in tech and media.

Timestamps:

00:00 Preview and Intro

01:37 Being Mean to AI and Early Banter

05:00 The Rise of AI-Generated “Slop” Content

07:15 The Creator “Haves and Have-Nots”

09:00 Losing Credit to AI Models

11:20 Feeding the Beast: 400 Posts Later

12:00 “Slop Talk” and Pop-Culture References

13:00 The $10K MRR Meme and Startup Momentum

15:20 Pricing Psychology and Product Traction

17:10 Hunting Mice, Buffalo, and Elephants

18:45 The Ideal Customer Profile and Early Adopters

20:15 Venture Funds, Bubbles, and Ecosystem Investing

23:45 When Startups Invest in Startups

26:40 Slack, Lattice, and the Platform Play

29:05 Wrapping Up and Late-Night Insights

Episodes Referenced:

Slop Talk (coming soon)

https://www.youtube.com/slackerstuff

Why Only 2% of Startups Make It

https://youtu.be/czh5evg77vQ

When startups burn cash faster than they learn | Ivan Makarov:

https://youtu.be/EdTt2l89bUo

996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaos

https://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRo

Links:

https://www.dexerto.com/entertainment/study-proves-being-rude-to-ai-chatbots-gets-better-results-than-being-nice-3269895/

https://www.usg.edu/galileo/skills/unit07/internet07_02.phtml

https://futurism.com/altman-please-thanks-chatgpt

https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/over-50-percent-internet-ai-slop

https://www.axios.com/2025/10/14/ai-generated-writing-humans

https://www.economist.com/business/2025/10/16/sloponomics-who-wins-and-loses-in-the-ai-content-flood

https://x.com/madhuraaa_/status/1978390720881819884

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/eat-what-you-kill

https://christophjanz.blogspot.com/2014/10/five-ways-to-build-100-million-business.html

https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/how-to-build-your-early-gtm-strategy

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/startups-investing-in-startups-peak-bubble-behavior

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2025/10/10/are-barefoot-shoes-good-for-runners

https://x.com/ivanomaksf/status/1978852000298320068?s=46

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/uber-offers-drivers-extra-pay-to-perform-tasks-that-train-ai-7116401/

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/is-ltv-to-cac-the-nickelback-of-metrics

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/final-2024-25-network-tv-ratings-tracker-high-potential-1236312223/

https://christophjanz.blogspot.com/2014/10/five-ways-to-build-100-million-business.html

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ben-horowitz-hires-jensen-vercel-starts-venture-fund

https://www.instagram.com/chasemytail/

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ, Kyle, and Ben start with Carl’s infamous “AWS from the car” rant before diving into a sharp, funny breakdown of corporate title inflation and the slow death of middle management. From “Founding BDRs” to self-proclaimed “VPs of vibes,” the crew dissects why org charts are flattening and how that changes leadership, accountability, and hiring. Then, in a classic Pricing Model Roast, they unpack why hybrid and usage-based models are both brilliant and broken, what outcome-based pricing gets wrong, and why take rates might secretly be the future. The trio closes with thoughts on momentum, AI urgency theater, and how to manage teams without burning them out—or yourself in the process.

Timestamps:

00:00 Carl from the Car on AWS

01:04 Mostly Growth intro theme

01:27 CJ’s flight back from LA (and the fake Wi-Fi warning)

02:00 “I finally learned where Mississippi was”

02:45 LA traffic and Nobu dinner with Ben

04:08 Ben’s history lesson: why LA is a transportation nightmare

06:34 “Clip it down” — segue to the main topic

07:20 Title deflation and the death of middle management

09:12 “Founding BDR” and generic LinkedIn titles

11:00 The problem with VP title inflation

12:31 The vanishing middle manager

14:03 “Bonfire of the Middle Managers” and why it matters

15:52 Shout-out to good managers everywhere

18:00 Pricing Model Roast — lightning round

19:49 Why hybrid pricing is the “best worst” model

22:12 Usage vs. commitment pricing in the AI era

25:09 Outcome-based pricing and cash-flow pain

31:23 Take-rate pricing and marketplace dynamics

33:29 Momentum is not a moat — but maybe it’s a boat

36:22 How fast companies really move in AI

38:38 Building urgency without burning out your team

41:10 Business Partners: The LinkedIn follower illusion

42:46 The optimal number of direct reports

45:24 Pricing in the Real World — why book publishing is a scam

Episodes Referenced:

The $1 Trillion AI Bubble: Nvidia, OpenAI, and the Feedback Loop

https://youtu.be/DMz-hC1K3BY

Decoding the Psychology of Price in the Age of AI | Michael Stanisz

https://youtu.be/qNn9_07efN4

996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaos

https://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRo

Links:

https://x.com/shamusmadan/status/1978471423522840643/photo/1

https://www.economist.com/business/2025/10/05/bonfire-of-the-middle-managers

https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/7de0e352-fd0f-4f75-bc70-f1adaa483a4a

https://investing101.substack.com/p/momentum-moat

https://www.amazon.com/Formula-Universal-Laws-Success/dp/0316505498

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kirbyman_how-do-you-build-a-moat-in-consumer-ai-you-activity-7376301424613363712-cB5p/

https://x.com/joshua_xu_/status/1978837502787219578

https://www.heygen.com/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=23054911095&gbraid=0AAAAABiJW6bRhkaamVJe8PfOSFAoc1FHd

https://www.economist.com/business/2025/09/18/how-many-reports-should-a-manager-have?giftId=a90f0234-f411-481f-98c7-c8f530ec33f9&utm_campaign=gifted_article

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191001-dunbars-number-why-we-can-only-maintain-150-relationships

In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the question on everyone’s mind: are we in an AI bubble? What starts as a lighthearted riff on the U.S. Postal Service launching a podcast quickly spirals into a sharp, funny breakdown of today’s AI hype cycle — from Nvidia, OpenAI, and AMD trading money and GPUs in a trillion-dollar feedback loop, to startups burning cash chasing “AI-powered” everything. The trio share real examples of when AI helps and when it backfires (including one newsletter that totally tanked), debate whether companies are over-optimizing for automation, and laugh through the absurdity of the hype while grounding it in practical insights on product, finance, and growth.

Timestamps:

00:00 Preview and Intro

00:14 Are We in an AI Bubble?

00:44 The AI Money Loop: Nvidia, OpenAI, AMD

01:00 Perplexity, We Caught You

02:18 The Postal Service Launches a Podcast

04:24 How the Team Uses AI (and When It Fails)

06:07 CJ’s DIY Dunning Disaster

08:38 What AI Is Good At — and Where It Breaks

10:49 Perplexity Tries to Gaslight Kyle

13:27 AI vs. AI: Hacking Resume Screeners

16:09 How Recruiters View AI-Generated Resumes

17:17 CJ’s Chief of Staff Hiring Story

19:15 The Data: Is AI Adoption Already Slowing?

22:42 Crossing the Chasm: Early Adopters to Early Majority

26:22 The Streaming Analogy and Forced AI Bundles

28:49 The Circular AI Economy (Everyone Funding Everyone)

31:15 Betting It All on AGI and Data Centers

34:09 The Margin: AI Erotica and the Peak of the Bubble

35:23 Business Blunders: OpenAI’s Token Leaderboard

41:43 What Kyle Tried This Week: Building an AI Agent

44:52 Wrap-Up and Outro

Episodes Referenced:

5,762 Job Applications. Zero Offers.

Why Only 2% of Startups Make It

The War for Talent is just getting started | Joe Floyd

Links:

https://usps-mailin-it.simplecast.com/

https://i.imgflip.com/a92oy5.jpg

https://tabs.inc/webinar/tabs-agent

https://substack.com/@kylepoyar/note/c-159017468?

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/07/business/ai-chatbot-prompts-resumes.html?_bhlid=1b5906cdc6781a738a150d9c32f846ebf11fc318

https://substack.com/home/post/p-175615945

https://ramp.com/data/ai-index?utm_source=econlab.substack.com

https://medium.com/@samuelvandeth/crossing-the-chasm-162802d1cf27

https://x.com/TrungTPhan/status/1922669292929024017/photo/1

https://kyla.substack.com/p/ai-is-the-market-and-the-market-is?r=cxcvo&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1977902195472322620?s=42

https://topline.beehiiv.com/p/the-era-of-haves-and-have-nots

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd2qv58yl5o

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cj-gustafson-13140948_imagine-getting-called-into-your-cfos-office-activity-7381681514532458496-NOqa/

https://fortune.com/2025/10/01/red-lobster-ceo-damola-adamolekun-comeback-plan-bankruptcy/

https://fortune.com/2024/11/13/red-lobster-ceo-damola-adamolekun-says-endless-shrimp-is-never-coming-back/#

https://www.relay.app/