Wall Street is breathing easier after a shocking July jobs report showed a loss of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls, slashing the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and raising the stakes for next week’s critical inflation data. With the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1% and the 2-year Treasury yield falling to around 4.2%, traders now see reduced urgency for Chair Kevin Warsh to tighten policy next month, shifting the focus squarely onto July CPI and PPI releases that now carry dual-mandate weight for both price stability and maximum employment.
Gold bugs poured $180 million into call options on GLD and GDX after the weak labor print as the 10-year yield stalled below recent highs near 4.7%, with spot gold holding near $4,407 an ounce.
The size of America’s workforce has shrunk by more than one million people over the past year as labor-force participation slips back toward pandemic-era levels, a disinflationary signal that also caps potential GDP growth and keeps long-term rate expectations anchored lower.
In corporate earnings, prediction-market businesses at companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment took center stage as executives parse consumer sentiment heading into the fall. Russia’s labor shortage is worsening with Central Asian migrant inflows down roughly 15%, adding fresh pressure to an economy already strained by war.
And in European news, Spain is set to impose border controls against Italy as tensions escalate over a surge of nearly 78,000 migrants into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta.
This is the 3:00 PM Central VixShield flash.