Oil prices surged more than 6% after President Trump said the U.S. will hit Iran hard in retaliation for its ballistic missile attack on American forces. The move comes amid fresh risks including an explosion near a tanker in the Red Sea and Houthi threats to strike Saudi oil sites. Strategists led by Max Kettner at a major bank are telling clients nothing seems to shake this market and it's time to go all-in on equities despite geopolitical volatility, the oil spike and the tech pullback. Jim Cramer warned of a looming "nightmare" for tech stocks as U.S. and Korean markets remain closely linked. Credit default swaps on AI leaders such as Nvidia, Oracle and Apple are spooking investors over the uncertain returns from billions in new debt-funded infrastructure. A cyclospora outbreak tied to Taco Bell is poised to overshadow Yum Brands' earnings later today.

This is the 8:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces mounting pressure ahead of the FOMC rate decision this afternoon as analysts warn the dollar's sharp rally is doing far less than expected to cool stubborn inflation, leaving policymakers with limited options. A strong DXY usually helps by dragging down import costs but this cycle sticky services inflation and resilient demand have broken that transmission, meaning the Fed cannot outsource its fight to currency markets.

In European news, the Bank of England finds itself under fresh scrutiny over the path for interest rates and what any move would mean for millions of mortgage holders already stretched by higher borrowing costs. Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, speaking today on social care reform, says he will not rule out future tax rises while fast-tracking Louise Casey's review with final recommendations due by summer 2027. SK Hynix shares plunged after the chipmaker missed aggressive earnings expectations, deepening fears around stretched artificial intelligence valuations and intensifying Chinese competition in memory chips. Procter & Gamble posted revenue that missed Wall Street estimates even as earnings per share topped forecasts, with consumer volumes remaining flat. Telefonica raised its 2026 cash flow guidance citing strong momentum in Spain and Brazil, while MFS strategists warn a profit squeeze is coming for high-multiple technology names, pushing some investors toward unglamorous value stocks instead.

This is the 7:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

Gold has climbed above $4,087 an ounce as the US national debt reached a fresh record high, prompting a flight to safe-haven assets including Bitcoin and the yellow metal.

Bitcoin was changing hands near $64,395 while Ethereum traded around $1,909. Options traders are pricing in a potential $190 billion swing in Microsoft shares after its earnings, well above the 4.8 percent average implied move of the past year, as investors shift from AI hype to demanding concrete returns on Azure growth and enterprise adoption. In European markets, Greggs reported a strong sales increase as its iced matcha lattes and chicken rolls became popular during the heatwave, boosting profits. Italy advanced toward new extended producer responsibility rules for textiles.

In the Middle East, the Houthis claimed an attack on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. Separately, US and Saudi forces struck Tehran-backed militias in Iraq, killing at least 20.

US premarket trading is focused on this afternoon's FOMC meeting. The Federal Funds Rate decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM Central, followed by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.

This is the 6:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

Traders are on edge as Federal Reserve policymakers begin their two-day meeting this morning, with markets widely expecting a hold on interest rates amid persistent inflation pressures. A hawkish surprise or even hawkish dot-plot language could reinforce higher-for-longer rates, pressuring risk assets, driving the VIX higher and weighing on rate-sensitive sectors.

UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti says the recent pullback in artificial intelligence stocks is healthy but warns that a deeper slowdown in corporate spending poses the bigger risk to investors.

And in European news, the Football Association has joined criticism of FIFA's plan to sell stakes in the World Cup to private investors, with UEFA's member associations now holding an emergency meeting and a potential boycott on the table. Jordan has intercepted five Iranian missiles while US and Saudi forces struck militia targets in Iraq, adding fresh tension ahead of the Fed decision.

Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is delivering a major speech on social care as former civil servant Louise Casey plays down cost concerns, saying many families are already paying the price.

This is the 5:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

A major US-Saudi consortium has sealed a $5 billion deal to build a new refinery in the Gulf just outside the Strait of Hormuz. The project is expected to boost regional refining capacity and ease pressure on existing chokepoints as geopolitical risks climb.

In Asian news, rescue teams in Japan are in a race against time as the death toll from the earthquake climbs to at least 13 with several people still trapped in rubble. Tech stocks extended their sell-off overnight, with SoftBank losing 7 percent as AI plays took another hit while Chinese internet names including Tencent and Meituan bucked the trend higher.

And in European news, France and Spain are bracing for a fresh heatwave with new wildfire warnings issued across both countries. Concacaf has joined growing criticism of Fifa’s plan to sell off World Cup stakes to private investors.

Oil prices jumped after US-Iran tensions escalated with fresh strikes in Iraq and reports that Tehran will receive Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems within weeks. Bitcoin is trading around $64,345, Ethereum at $1,913 and gold is holding near $4,097 an ounce.

In human interest, Australian farmers are using cow showers and giant fans to keep cattle cool as temperatures soar.

This is the 4:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

Rescue teams in Japan are in a race against time to reach survivors trapped under rubble after a 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck Kyushu, where the death toll has reached at least 13 with many more feared missing. Ongoing aftershocks are hampering efforts and thousands have been displaced.

In southwest Europe, French authorities ordered 4,000 more evacuations from Atlantic coast tourist sites as wildfires displace more than a third of a million people, in what may be France's largest peacetime evacuation.

Saudi Arabia has joined US strikes on Iran-backed militia groups that targeted American bases and Saudi energy infrastructure. ADNOC is continuing LNG exports from the UAE despite heightened threats near the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices climbed after reports of an Iranian surprise missile attempt, tightening supplies as European gas storage lags at 56 percent — far below the 10-year average — while QatarEnergy extends force majeure on deliveries into October.

This is the 3:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

Bitcoin is holding above $64,000 this morning with traders bracing for today's Federal Reserve decision as digital asset markets stay in a tight range. Ethereum trades near $1,900.

And in European news, Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to notch diplomatic wins on the global stage despite mounting domestic difficulties. His recent meetings with UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham and US President Donald Trump were described as positive, reinforcing Western support. The US Senate also advanced a major new Russian sanctions package. These successes follow hundreds of billions in aid secured from allies. However, a recent government reshuffle has laid bare deep fractures inside Zelenskyy's wartime cabinet, raising questions about whether his growing domestic political struggles will ultimately damage his international reputation and leverage.

In Asian markets, survivors of the powerful Japan earthquake are describing scenes of pure horror, with one telling reporters "I thought I would die" as rescue teams race against time.

Heathrow Airport has been cleared to recover runway investment costs, paving the way for higher ticket prices on many routes. In the Middle East, Palestinian villagers continue to endure weekly attacks from Israeli settlers, with residents describing sieges on their homes.

This is the 2:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

Rescuers are searching through rubble for survivors after a powerful earthquake in Japan as the death toll rises to 13. Soldiers and emergency crews are combing a badly damaged shopping mall and collapsed homes, with fears that more people remain trapped overnight.

And in European news, a community group in Cambridge is rescuing unpicked blackberries from local bushes to stop them going to waste and turning the fruit into free recipe kits for 50 low-income households. Cambridge Sustainable Food is supplying pre-weighed blackberry ingredients, recipe cards and instructions through the local food hub. Organiser Alex Vardill told BBC Radio Cambridgeshire the project tackles both food waste and the rising cost of living by putting nutritious foraged fruit directly into the hands of families who need it most. The initiative shines a light on persistent pressure on lower-income households even as headline inflation has cooled.

This is the 1:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

Corporate deal tension is gripping the semiconductor supply chain as SoftBank shares plunged 10 percent and SK Hynix tanked more than 15 percent despite 257 percent revenue growth. Even a 557 percent surge in operating profit wasn't enough to satisfy AI euphoria pricing, sending South Korea's Kospi plunging more than 8 percent and triggering a circuit breaker for the second straight day. The rout in chip names is now weighing on broader Asian technology stocks and raising fresh questions about stretched valuations across the artificial intelligence infrastructure pipeline ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.

Brent crude spiked nearly 4 percent to around $88 a barrel after the US thwarted an Iranian ballistic missile attack on American forces in Jordan and joined Saudi strikes on Tehran-backed militias in Iraq. A leading AI memory maker crossing 100 trillion won in first-half revenue highlights how megafund expectations now drive deal flow and capex bets in the sector with any softening threatening wider rotation out of semis.

This is the 12:00 AM Central VixShield flash.

And in Asian news, Australia's headline inflation has eased to 3.8% in the year to June, down from 4.0% the month before and softer than expected. Economists say the country has dodged a bullet, sharply reducing the chance of an interest rate hike for millions of mortgage holders when the RBA meets on 11 August. Queensland and the Northern Territory have rejected the federal Labor government's push to force power-hungry artificial intelligence data centres to source electricity only from renewables, calling the plans underdeveloped power grabs from Canberra. S&P Global warns data centre demand could surge five-fold by 2035, potentially driving 10% of the nation's total power use and pushing household bills sharply higher if new renewable supply lags.

Fears are growing for endangered sea lions on South Australia's Kangaroo Island after bird flu was detected in the area. In New South Wales, an ICAC inquiry has heard evidence of a so-called 'David Elliott shit sheet' compiled by Liberal Party faction members, detailing an alleged extramarital affair and claims of secret photographs. Police are treating the deaths of a mother and her young child as murder-suicide.

Oil prices have surged more than 4% with WTI reaching $82.89 a barrel on fresh Middle East strikes and a large American crude inventory draw.

This is the 11:00 PM Central VixShield flash.